(I should point out that most leagues do count this game. For example, CBS Sportsline has a note on their league pages today that this game counts in all formats for their leagues.)
How important or meaningless this game is depends on your league. In my "expert" league, I've locked it up and am hoping to crack 100 points (out of a possible 120). But I won't be following too closely.
In A.L. Tout Wars, Tony Siano (of mlb.com) and Lawr Michaels (of CreativeSports.com) are within 1/2 point of each other and can move up or down in a few categories. Siano gives a stream-of-consciousness blow-by-blow about where he and Michaels can move up or down.
In my A.L., last year's winner is one point out of first, 75-74 (4x4). There are three possibilities for categorical movement. In order most realistic to least realistic:
- Wins. The first place team has 72 wins. The two teams behind him each have 71. One of those teams has Scott Baker on the hill tomorrow. A win by Baker drives the first place team down to 74 1/2 points. The other team with 71 wins has Edwin Jackson. Jackson could also shift wins by 1/2 point...though it's unlikely that he'll pitch.
The team in 2nd has 69 wins. A win by his Jose Mijares or Fu-Te Ni in relief would also shift the standings 1/2 point, 75-74 1/2. - Stolen Bases. The second place team is one steal behind the next team: 133-132. He has Miguel Cabrera, Orlando Cabrera, Jason Kubel and Delmon Young. The team with 133 steals has Joe Mauer, Magglio Ordonez and Denard Span. A one steal jump by the second place team would gain him half a point. A two steal differential would be good for a full point.
- WHIP. This is the least likely of the point shifting scenarios. As mentioned above, the second place team has Ni and Mijares. The team ahead of them in WHIP has Brandon Lyon and Ryan Perry. Mijares/Ni would need to pitch 3 1/3 innings with zero baserunners to turn the WHIP point OR Lyon/Perry would need to give up five baserunners without getting an out. Realistically, the second place team would need something in the middle of these two extremes. For example, a poor 1/3 of an inning for Lyon with three baserunners means that the second place team would need 1 2/3 IP from Mijares and/or Ni without a baserunner.
2 comments:
So... how did it turn out?
Nothing changed. There was no movement in any of the three categories that mattered. This was my 14th year in the league and we still have never had a back-to-back winner.
I'll give the 2nd place owner props...in terms of points he came the closest ever to doing it (I lost by 1 1/2 points once after winning).
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