A 5 1/2 Point Lead Evaporates: Part II

So this is where I left off last time:

Billy Almon Brown Graduate
Games Through Thursday, October 1, 2009

Team	Wins	Points	Starts Left
Batteries	71	8.5	1
JSC's	71	8.5	1
Glanvillage	69	6	1
Decimators	69	6	2
Benedictines	69	6	3
Gueros	67	4	2

Overall, The Decimators were up 74 to 72 with three days left. So they had already lost 3 1/2 points worth of ground (almost all in wins), but didn't have a lot of other places besides wins where they could lose points. They had a narrow ERA lead over the team in 2nd but with only Zack Greinke and Andy Pettitte left to pitch it didn't seem likely they'd lose that point. Every other category was safe for them in terms of losing points.

The Benedictines, on the other hand, didn't have a lot of opportunities to move up outside of wins. The only other category where they could achieve movement was saves, where they were in 3rd and down 76-74 to the team in 2nd. They had Joe Nathan and Kerry Wood while their opponent had Jason Frasor, Brian Fuentes, and Frank Francisco.

So wins is where the game was likely to be won or lost. At this point, the math was becoming very clear (assuming no vulture wins).

• The Benedictines had to finish ahead of the Decimators in wins. There wasn't a scenario where they could be tied or behind in wins and expect to realistically win the league.
• If The Benedictines won only one game, they would need the Decimators and Glanvillage People to not win any additional games either AND then they would need help in either ERA or to pick up that unlikely saves points.
• If The Benedictines won two games, then things could get convoluted. Wins by Freddy Garcia and Jeff Niemann would push The Benedictines into a 1/2 point lead IF no one else won a game. If the JSC's or Batteries won, then the standings would be tied overall. If both the JSC's (David Purcey) and Batteries (Edwin Jackson) won, then The Benedicines would "only" swing the standings 1 1/2 points overall and be 1/2 point out.
• With one win, The Decimators would assure themselves of doing no worse than losing half a point, which means that The Benedictines would have to win at least two.
• Two Decimator wins pretty much would have clinched them the league, since one of their starters (Pettitte) was going against one of The Benedictines' starters (Niemann).
  

Games Through Friday, October 2, 2009

Team	Wins	Points	Starts Left
Batteries	71	8.5	0
JSC's	71	8.5	0
Glanvillage	70	7	0
Decimators	69	5.5	2
Benedictines	69	5.5	3
Gueros	67	4	2

When is a day that you lose 1/2 a point in the standings a good day?

Glanvillage's lone remaining starter - David Price - beat CC Sabathia to take 1/2 point away from both The Benedictines and The Decimators. Meanwhile, Adrian Beltre and Mark Ellis stole bases for The Decimators to put them back in a tie with The Towers. And Fuentes/Francisco pretty much put that extra saves point out of reach.

So The Decimators were up 74 - 71.5 with two days left. Again: how was this a good day for The Benedictines?

It was only good because Jackson and Purcey didn't win while Price did. Wins by Jackson and Purcey pretty much would have ended the race, making a Garcia/Niemann/Verlander sweep necessary just to hope for the tie. The Jackson loss to Jake Peavy and the Purcey loss to Jason Berken gave the Benedictines a realistic shot at 8 points in wins.

And it set the stage for Saturday. Greinke was up against the Twins, Garcia against the Tigers, while Andy Pettitte and Jeff Niemann were squaring off against each other in a game that was pretty much going to decide all the marbles. A Pettitte win for The Decimators meant that even if Garcia won it would be 70-70 in wins. Even if Verlander went Sunday, it was probable that the best The Benedictines were going to hope for in this case was a tie, at 74-74.

Games Through Saturday, October 3, 2009

Team	Wins	Points	Starts Left
Batteries	71	8	0
JSC's	71	8	0
Benedictines	71	8	1
Glanvillage	70	6	0
Decimators	69	5	0
Gueros	67	4	2

The day started with Zack Greinke dueling with Nick Blackburn in Minnesota. Greinke was brilliant through five, but Blackburn matched him for five and a half innings, which made it look like Greinke might not get the win. Then the Twins broke it open with four runs in the sixth. The Royals actually tied it up in the 8th, but by then Greinke was gone. No win for the Decimators.

Now it was all coming down to Niemann vs. Pettitte. Garcia had a 33 minute head start and the White Sox jumped out early, putting up two runs in the second and one in the third. That was all Garcia would need. A Garcia win alone would put The Decimators one up, 73.5 to 72.5. With the Twins winning and the Tigers certain to lose, a Verlander start on Sunday was a fait accompli. Pettitte had to win.

Of course we all know that he didn't. Once again, the second inning proved to be The Decimators undoing, as Pettitte gave up three in the second. That was all Niemann and the Rays would need. To add insult to injury, Alfredo Aceves - also a Decimator - turned a 3-2 Rays game in the 5th into a 5-2 game with a throwing error.

Now The Benedictines were ahead, 74-73.5 with one day of baseball remaining.

Games Through Sunday, October 4, 2009

Team	Wins	Points	Starts Left
Benedictines	72	9	0
JSC's	71	7.5	1*
Batteries	71	7.5	0
Glanvillage	70	6	1*
Decimators	69	5	0
Gueros	68	4	0

*Scott Baker vs. Rick Porcello, Tuesday, October 6

And then Verlander put The Benedictines over the top.

The Decimators actually weren't done moving in the standings. A late rush in HR - including two-run HR days from both Delmon Young and Jason Kubel - pushed them ahead of my Quints and gained them a full point. But that would have left them short 75 to 74.5. However, Freddy Guzman and Denard Span put up two steals for The Towers, negating Brian Roberts' steal on the last day and taking a 1/2 point from The Decimators.

But it was pretty much over at this point. The Decimators needed a Scott Baker win from the JSC's to pick up a 1/2 point, two steals from their four combined Twins/Tigers to pick up a full point, and some serious relief help in WHIP to gain a point there. None of this happened, and the 5 1/2 point collapse was complete.