What kind of bid would you expect to acquire (Madison) Bumgarner this week in a NL-Only keeper without a real FAAB dollar limit to cap the bids?For one thing, I'm not sure what a league "without a real FAAB dollar limit" would look like. Are owners pulling real money out of their wallets and bidding? I'm reminded of childhood, when someone would say "I mean that infinity" and the correct reply was "Oh yeah? Well I mean that infinity plus infinity." If there are no dollar limits, why wouldn't you bid a kazillion Schrute bucks?
I obviously like Bumgarner. He held his own at Double-A Connecticut (the Defenders is an awesome team name, by the way) at the age of 19 for most of the season. The low whiff rates are a concern, but given Bumgarner's age aren't cause for any clanging alarm bells. The very low HR/FB% will also regress in the majors, but again given Bumgarner's age I wouldn't start writing him off just yet because of a few questionable markers.
My larger concern with Bumgarner is that he might not be an impact pitcher for anywhere from 2-4 years if the Giants insist on pushing him to the majors in his Age 20 season. The last 20-year-old pitcher who debuted for the Giants earned $15, $14, and $8 from 2006-2008 before finally breaking out in a big way this year. Felix Hernandez - another hyped and extremely young arm - earned $9, $14, and $10 in his first three full seasons before breaking out this year.
Obviously, these aren't bad results. But if your bid is tied to some kind of keeper price for Bumgarner, you have to keep this in mind. If your FAAB bid leads to a $15-20 salary, it is likely that you are buying into a par pitcher in a best case scenario. In a worst case scenario, you're throwing your money down a rabbit hole - regardless of how good Bumgarner might be in 4-5 years.
3 comments:
I am not sure what others saw from Bumgarner, but I saw good and bad. My biggest concerns are: 1. He throws across his body with a 3/4 or less arm slot. As we know, this translates to: surgery. 2. His arm slot leaves the ball visible for a very long time to right handed hitters. He has very good stuff (though he was tight during the game...he rarely hit 90-91 with the fastball), but that good stuff will not prevent him getting lit up at this level if he does not do a better job of hiding that ball.
Yeah, we actually do spend our real money on FAAB. There actually is a limit - $350 - but most people are well under $100 spent. So the real limit ends up being your own pocketbook.
Kind of funny thing: the first year we started FAAB, I also made the assumption that the dollars were artificial. This also happened to be the year Hamels joined the league, and so I dropped a healthy $130-something on him much to the shock and awe of my leaguemates (there were a couple other bids in the $70's if I remember). They still mock me to this day for not knowing we were using real money for our FAAB system - even though I always tell them that this is abnormal! And judging by your response, I'm right!
P.S. Hope your daughter is doing well
Thanks. She's better. Just a stomach bug. Of course, now the baby's got a head cold...
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