Wednesday, September 30, 2009

Isn't Mike Mussina Dreamy?

Yup, another non-Roto, Hall of Fame post.

Dr. Hibbert - like many I've encountered in my non-blogging life - sounds skeptical about the idea of Mike Mussina as a Hall of Famer:
I enjoy the analysis, Mike. I think era+ is an excellent way of comparing players across the years. But I dislike the "If X then Y" type of arguments for the HOF. I prefer to hold them to the standard: "Were they a DOMINANT player of their era?"

Moose was a very good pitcher for 18 seasons. I guess I'd need to be convinced that he was dominant amongst his peers. As someone said (Bill James?), "It's not the Hall of Very Good"
To answer Dr. Hibbert's question, I went back through Baseball Prospectus' VORP pitcher ratings and ranked pitchers (going back to 1954) on the number of seasons they finished in the Top 10 in VORP. Here's what I came up with:

MLB Top 10 VORP Seasons: 1954-2008
Pitcher
# of YearsYears
HOF?
Roger Clemens
13
1986-1992,
1994, 1996
1997
, 1999
2004, 2005


Greg Maddux
9
1992-1998
2000, 2001

Jim Palmer
9
1970-1973
1975-1978
1982
YES
Randy Johnson
9
1993-1995
1997
1999-2002
2004

Tom Seaver
9
1967-1971
1973, 1975
1976, 1981
YES
Bert Blyleven8
1971
1973-1975
1977, 1981,
1984, 1989
NO
Bob Gibson
8
1962
1964-1966
1968-1970
1972
YES
Mike Mussina
8
1992, 1994
1995, 1997
1999-2001
2003

Jim Bunning
7
1957, 1960
1961
1964-1967
YES
Pedro Martinez
7
1997-2000
2002-2005

Whitey Ford
7
1955, 1956
1958
1961-1964
YES

These are what I would call the "consistently dominant" pitchers. Within this category, there are two classes of pitchers.
  • Pitchers who were not only dominant for a long time, but incredibly dominant at their peak. These pitchers put up VORPs of 80 or higher for three or more seasons. Maddux, Johnson, and Martinez fall into this class of pitchers, while Palmer is straddling the fence.
  • Pitchers who didn't put up a stretch where they were the absolute best during their time but were still among the elites for a long time. Blyleven, Mussina, and Bunning are examples of this type of pitcher.
Mussina passes another unofficial Hall of Fame test with flying colors. He sits up there with pitchers who were dominant within their era for long stretches of time. Blyleven's the only eligible pitcher who isn't in the Hall, and I suspect that he'll get there before his eligibility runs out.

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