A.L. FAAB Log: September 7, 2009

Michael Brantley $23. Other bids $13, $13, $12, $11, $10, $7, $7, $2.
Since I thought I wouldn't be here typing this right now, I did a brief write-up on Brantley earlier. I should point out that he's exceeding expectations thus far in a very limited sample size and is one of the better FAAB plays from here on out based on potential playing time. As far as the bids above, the $23 bid came from a contender; the other contender bids were $13, $12, $7 and two non-bids. Cap room and deep rosters made it difficult for contenders to bid aggressively on Brantley. Thirteen dollars was the highest non-contender bid for Brantley; while this seems a little high, a quick look at Jacoby Ellsbury's 2007 debut illustrates why Roto teams get excited about guys like Brantley. The $2 bid is mysterious; this team has $37 to spend, plenty of cap room, and plenty of dead spots on offense. If you're sitting around with that much money at this point, might as well bid higher even if Brantley isn't a keep at, say, $15 next year.

Tyler Flowers $10. Other bids $2, $1.
Flowers was the other guy I briefly wrote-up (along with Brantley, see link above). A 937 minor league OPS for a 23-year-old catcher between AA and AAA is obviously exciting, though I wonder if the White Sox will be able to find a place for Flowers to play come next April.

Carlos Carrasco $9.
Carrasco is the first player from the Indians haul from the Cliff Lee trade to arrive in Cleveland. He looked terrible in his MLB debut last week, getting shelled in Detroit by the Tigers. Carrasco's stuff looked solid, but he had lots of trouble locating his fastball, which left batters looking for his curve (he threw many more curves than the six Fangraphs claims he threw). The curve looked like a solid pitch, but it's not a 12-6 yakker that's going to freeze hitters. Translation: it's a hittable pitch. Carrasco is 22 years old so deserves some slack, but outside of 36 2/3 solid Triple-A IP to close out 2008, he hasn't posted an ERA under 4.32 at any level above A-ball and has been incredibly homer prone. It's too early to claim he's going to be a total bust, but it looks to me like Carrasco's got a long road to success and it could take a few years before he puts it all together.

Billy Wagner $8. Other bids $4, $2, $2.
Faithful reader Rodger suggested that Wagner could be a nice, cheap stab at a possible closer in 2010 if some small market A.L. team takes a chance. I think that's possible, though can't see that team at the moment (Tampa?). With 11 whiffs in 5 2/3 IP, it seems like Wagner's cooking with gas, but Fangraphs says that Wagner's velocity is down to "only" 93 MPH. He's still a decent this year play due to the whiffs in 5x5 even if he is only going to pitch 2-3 times a week from here on out. In 4x4, there may actually be better this year plays out there due to the intended usage.

Dustin Nippert $5.
With the exception of an awful start at Yankee Stadium on August 27, Nippert had a mostly solid run as a starting pitcher for the Texas Rangers. With the return of Brandon McCarthy, it looks like Nippert is heading to a deep Rangers pen, where he's not worth grabbing as a this year play.

Daniel Hudson $5.
Hudson was considered a B-level prospect at best and a borderline one at worst by most analysts but broke through in 2009 with a combined 14-5, 2.32 ERA, 166 K, 34 BB in 147 IP across four minor league levels. This is a solid next year play; Hudson will probably have a shot at landing a rotation job in 2010, and if he continues to pitch this well, may very well be worth a stab next year at the $10 keeper price. Pass if you're playing for this year. I suspect the Sox will baby Hudson and he won't pitch that much the rest of the way.

Brian Duensing $4.
A mediocre AAA campaign in his Age 25 season knocked Duensing off of most prospect lists and into a projected future as a middle reliever. He was fulfilling that prediction until necessity pushed him into the Twins rotation. Three strong starts later, Duensing will probably stick in the rotation down the stretch. He strikes me as a pitcher who the league will eventually figure out but who could have some success the first time around. He's a two-start pitcher this week against the Blue Jays and A's and is worth a stab as long as he stays hot.

Jon Rauch $3.
Rauch was picked up by the Twins to shore up their bullpen for the stretch run. He picked up two quick wins and is certainly a decent vulture candidate the rest of the way.

Mike Sweeney $1.
The combination of a weakened roster and a hot bat have led to increased playing time for Sweeney down the stretch. He has an OPS of 959 since August 1, and while we're talking about a pathetic sample size (68 AB), Sweeney still should be on a Roto roster if he's going to get 20+ AB a week and sting the ball the way he has down the stretch.

Trevor Crowe $1.
Crowe was activated off of the DL by the Indians and used as a defensive replacement this week. He should play very little down the stretch unless there's an injury to one of the Indians primary outfielders. Crowe is a back-up OF at best long term.

Raul Chavez $1.
Chavez had a strong week, but is still the back-up in Toronto and won't play enough to warrant consideration unless you've got an injured player behind the plate sitting on your active roster.

Fu-Te Ni. Claimed by 1st place team.
Ni's been a solid middle relief option for the Tigers. He has no decisions, so he's purely a middle man who is only valuable if you're trying to protect your ERA/WHIP.