Monday, September 21, 2009

A.L. FAAB Log: September 21, 2009

Jake Peavy $24. Other bids $23, $22, $18, $14, $11, $11, $9, $5.
The winning bid is kind of a kick in the crotch for owners who had spent most if not all of their FAAB already. The oddity here is that the three teams that passed are non-contenders who had much more than $24 in FAAB to spend. Given that Peavy's earnings from 2005-2008 were $32, $16, $43 and $23, I would have probably bid $30 as a non-contender and taken a chance that Peavy would be worth that as a keeper in 2010. I'd rather be wrong and throw Peavy back than see a contender in 2009 win or compete again because I let him have Peavy as a relatively cheap chip.

Kevin Jepsen $22. Other bids $6, $1.
Rotoworld keeps announcing that Jepsen is going to get some of the saves for the Angels due to Brian Fuentes' struggles. So far it hasn't happened, and it seems to me that Mike Scioscia is almost desperate for Fuentes to right the ship before the play-offs start. With the Angels in the driver's seat in the A.L. West, it's possible that Fuentes will keep going out there no matter what. I think Jepsen's worth a gamble if you're desperate for saves, but it's possible you get nothing here. Jepsen's ERA/WHIP have been very strong this month so you could very well still get some nice qualitatives in the last two weeks.

Carlos Gomez $15. Other bids $7, $6.
It has been a lost season for Gomez, and he has understandably been dropped even in some very deep A.L.-only leagues. With Justin Morneau lost for the season, it was anticipated that Gomez would play more, but even with the Morneau injury, Ron Gardenhire has buried Gomez on the Twins bench. Gomez is fast, but even that hasn't translated to a lot of steals this year, so Gomez is almost worthless in a bench role.

Brian Tallet $5. Other bids $3, $1.
Desperate times call for desperate measures. The owners who bid on Tallet are all chasing wins and even with a putrid 6.87 ERA in four September starts, Tallet has a 2-1 record. He's an incredibly risky call if you're ERA/WHIP are even remotely in play, as Tallet has had one solid month out of six this year. He's also injured, with a deep bone bruise making him doubtful for his next start. Even if your free agent pool is thin, you may want to think twice here.

Lou Marson $3.
The Indians have a lot of catchers on the roster, but Marson has still managed to pick up a fair amount of AB as the Indians try to determine how soon he'll be part of the team's future. The problem is that he's produced virtually nothing in HR/RBI and thus far looks like the soft singles hitter his detractors said he was. He's worth playing in very deep leagues if he's starting, but right now you can't expect much from Marson.

Eddie Bonine $1.
Bonine is an underwhelming pitcher who throws strikes and needs to keep the ball on the ground to be successful in the major leagues...which is a poor proposition even if he does those things to the best of his ability. He's a potential two-start pitcher this week with the Indians and White Sox on tap and could be worth it if you're absolutely desperate for wins. However, Bonine is hittable so you could be in for an ugly ride this week.

Lenny DiNardo $1.
Like Bonine, DiNardo's another soft tosser who keeps the ball on the ground. Unlike Bonine, DiNardo has a little bit more of a major league track record, though he's also been pounded in the majors for the most part. He draws two tough assignments at home this week against the Red Sox and Twins and probably should be avoided unless you're chasing wins and don't have to worry about your ERA/WHIP.

Edgar Gonzalez $1.
Gonzalez has been around forever, but he's only 26 years old. He's yet another soft tosser who tries to throw hitters off by keeping them perpetually off balance; Gonzalez has mixed in a lot more curves this year and has really embraced his lack of an out pitch. He's a two-start pitcher this week, but is home against Texas and at the Angels. He's also on a very limited pitch count of about 70, and isn't efficient enough to assume he's going to get a win even if he's pitching well.

Chris Richard $1.
The 35-year-old Richard was brought up from the minors as part of the Rays September roster expansion, and it seemed that Richard might get a crack at a little playing time when Carlos Pena went down for the season with two broken fingers. However, Richard's poor contact rates have kept him on the bench for the most part, and he shouldn't have much of an impact the last two weeks of the season.

Ian Kennedy $1.
Kennedy is up to pitch long relief for the Yanks, but they'll probably baby him as he's coming back from surgery on an armpit aneurysm. He might wind up stealing a garbage win or two, but with the Red Sox suddenly four back in the loss column, it's more likely that Kennedy is simply going to get a tune up or two in garbage time so he can get ready for the Arizona Fall League. He won't be worth the $10 keeper price next year, but Kennedy's an intriguing name to file away for 2-3 years down the road.

Freddy Guzman $1.
Joey Gathright $1.

Guzman (Yankees) and Gathright (Red Sox) are both busted ex-speed prospects that will serve their respective play-off bound teams in a pinch-running capacity. That doesn't mean that they're likely to steal a bunch of bases. It's actually more likely that they'll come into games later to improve the chances of advancing or scoring on an extra base hit. Even if you're chasing steals, these guys pretty much have next to no value.

Shelley Duncan $1.
Like a lot of the Yankees getting picked up this week, I think people are hoping that the Yanks dole out playing time to Duncan when they clinch a play-off berth. The problem with that reasoning is that the Red Sox are suddenly four out in the loss column and have a chance of winning the division (they have three left against the Bombers in New York). Getting home field advantage versus the Tigers or Twins in the LDS sure seems to beat flying to Anaheim to face the Angels. Duncan may pinch hit and get an odd start or two at 1B, but I wouldn't expect anything at all here. If you're still interested, he does have some power potential if he plays.

Trevor Crowe. Claimed by 10th place team.
It didn't look like Crowe would get much playing time when the Indians called him back up early this month, but he's played a lot in the past week, with Matt LaPorta shifting to 1B and Andy Marte shifting to the bench. As I've said before in this space, Crowe looks like a 4th/5th OF type, though if he's playing regularly he's got some speed and slight pop. If the Tribe keeps playing him down the stretch, he's better than a dead spot. Of course he's incredibly unlikely to be worth the $10 freeze price this owner would be paying in 2010.

Hank Blalock. Claimed by 8th, 6th, 5th, and 4th place teams.
The Rangers decided to essentially bury Blalock on their bench a few weeks ago, relegating him to a pinch hitting role. He started both games this weekend against the Angles, and it's possible that he might play. If he does, we all know the drill. He's a great power option with a very poor average and even worse OBP if your league uses that. Will he play? I'm not sure. My instincts say that with the Rangers all but out of it that they might go with the kids, but they might also decide to save the wear and tear on said kids.

Kenji Johjima. Claimed by 6th place team.
Johjima provided a little pop from behind the plate but is nursing a minor injury (bruised knee) and may not play until later this week. With Adam Moore and Rob Johnson in the fold, Johjima probably isn't going to get a significant number of AB in the last two weeks anyway. It'll be interesting to see what the Mariners do with Johjima and the $8MM he's owed next year. I predict he'll start the year with the team and be cut come June or July.

Mark Lowe. Claimed by 4th place team.
After a pedestrian start to the season, Lowe has been an incredible asset for the Mariners and his Roto teams. The only thing missing from a high quality Roto reliever here are the wins. Lowe is going to be used sporadically down the stretch to keep his innings down at the end, but still will provide some pretty strong value in a set-up role.

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