September PT

Shoresie wants to know:

There's a line of thought that the players to target are those who will be in 'pennant' races, as they'll be playing every day. In the process, I'd avoid guys on teams who are more likely to sit regulars (especially hurt regulars) to see what their farm system's made of. For example, I can do a deal for (an expiring) Grady Sizemore (giving up a good [Luke] Hochevar contract). I can probably give up the same asset and get a (Derek) Jeter. What's the play here? What can I expect from Sizemore the rest of the way? And, am I right to expect that Jeter will get 60 more at bats than Sizemore the rest of the way? (translating into 25 more runs, etc)

I can't predict the future (if I could, this would be a more interesting blog/I'd make a lot of money/I probably would be a gazillionaire who wasn't writing a Rotisserie baseball blog), but I can look back at last year.

Let's look at a few examples from 2008.

Chicago White Sox, September 2008: Orlando Cabrera (109 AB), Jermaine Dye (104), Alexei Ramirez (95), Jim Thome (88), A.J. Pierzynski (85), Juan Uribe (85), Paul Konerko (77), DeWayne Wise (63), Nick Swisher (61)

Detroit Tigers, September 2008: Curtis Granderson (104), Magglio Ordonez (96), Miguel Cabrera (96), Placido Polanco (84), Gary Sheffield (78), Brandon Inge (76), Edgar Renteria (59), Marcus Thames (49), Matt Joyce (49).

Los Angeles Angels, September 2008: Garret Anderson (87), Mark Teixeira (84), Sean Rodriguez (79), Brandon Wood (72), Torii Hunter (71), Vladimir Guerrero (68), Gary Matthews Jr. (66), Chone Figgins (64), Kendry Morales (53), Mike Napoli (53).

Seattle Mariners, September 2008: Ichiro Suzuki (114), Raul Ibanez (103), Jose Lopez (102), Yuniesky Betancourt (99), Jeremy Reed (77), Kenji Johjima (57), Wladimir Balentien (51), Luis Valbuena (49), Miguel Cairo (45).

Two of these teams - the Tigers and Mariners - were dead ducks at the end of the 2008 campaign. The White Sox were in a race that required a 163rd game to decide it. The Angels won their division going away.

For the most part, it doesn't seem that the teams that were out of it sat too many of their regulars. In the case of the Mariners, they had already released their dead weight (Jose Vidro/Richie Sexson) earlier in the year. The Tigers futzed around with Joyce, but it seems like they were sending the same eight guys out there every day.

One thing that's hard to predict is what will happen if a team like the Angels get a fat lead. During the Joe Torre years in New York, he would play most of his regulars nearly every day. Mike Scioscia, on the other hand, really mixed and matched his young guys with his vets.

Getting back to Shoresie's question, I think you'd have to go back through years of data to determine if a manager is more or less likely to rest his regulars. It does seem that non-contenders don't necessarily give too many young players looks in September, though. Since the season is already over, what's a team going to learn about a player in 50-60 MLB AB that their advance scouts and player personnel network shouldn't already have let them know?