Monday, August 24, 2009

N.L. FAAB Log: August 24, 2009

John Smoltz $15. Other bids $8, $1, $1.
It's clear that - compared to the American League I track - that this N.L. is clearly out of money. Fifteen dollars is probably too high for Smoltz in a vacuum, but there should have been more robust bidding here. As Fangraphs points out, Smoltz's terrible numbers for the Red Sox mask what are some decent peripherals. The other side of this coin is that Smoltz is 42 years old, and part of the reason I believe his BABIP is so bad is that he didn't seem to have to endurance of a younger pitcher and was throwing slop at times to mask this deficiency. At worst Smoltz right now is a match-up play; at best he could be a solid #3 Roto option the rest of the way. I say roll the dice if you're making the run this year.

Brandon Allen $8. Other bids $4, $2, $1.
Tony Pena is a OK middle reliever, but it seems that Allen was too high a price to pay. The 23-year-old first baseman is a big time power prospect. The knock on him entering this season were his terrible whiff rates, but his 85 whiffs in 447 AB is a marked improvement. He's started the last two days and it looks like he's getting an early jump on claiming the 1B job for Arizona. I'd snag him in both non-carryover and carryover leagues if I had an opening - and in leagues with more FAAB floating around, this bid is probably about half of what it will take to get him.

Charlie Haeger $5. Other bids $1, $1.
Haeger's old for a prospect and his minor league numbers have generally been somewhat pedestrian but he's a knuckleballer, so all bets are off when it comes to using past results to predict future performance. The 25-year-old has been brilliant out of the blocks for the Dodgers and is helped tremendously by his home venue. He's worth a shot. Keep in mind that Haeger's Achilles Heel throughout his career has been controlling his knuckler, so don't be surprised if he puts up a crazy 7-8 walk outing at some point this year.

Sean West $2. Other bids $1, $1.
I wrote West up back in late May. His walk rates have actually been acceptable; his problem has been that he doesn't seem to have a true out pitch to rely on in tough situations. My opinion is that I like what I've seen of West's raw stuff but still think there's a lot of refinement that needs to be done here. This is a good flier for keeper leagues; we've seen pitchers like this suddenly put it together in Winter Ball or Spring Training, and if the more likely scenario of West not panning out next year is what happens, it won't cost you a lot of FAAB to find out.

Humberto Quintero $1. Other bid $1.
With Pudge Rodriguez out of the picture, it appears that Quintero and Chris Coste are currently splitting AB behind the dish for the Astros. Quintero's got a little bit of power with a below average BA and is probably a better option that the #2 catcher for some in very deep leagues if you can take a BA hit.

Jamie Moyer $1. Other bid $1.
Since August 9, Moyer's pitched once in a lights out six inning relief appearance following a rain delay. He's not going to return to the rotation unless or until the Phillies open an insurmountable lead, and even then Moyer still might sit in the bullpen. He's not worth picking up.

Vicente Padilla $1.
Mike Maddux (seemingly channeling Nolan Ryan) has done a wonderful job in Texas this year, yet couldn't do much with Padilla. That should tell you something. Padilla is a hittable shell of his former self, and should probably be avoided even as a match-up play. He's slated to start this week in Colorado and you should not only avoid owning him for that start, but avert your eyes from the box score so you don't burn out your retinas.

Jeff Weaver $1.
Speaking of Padilla, it looks like Weaver might be heading back to the bullpen due to Padilla's acquisition. He's an OK middle relief play but it's a case of six of one/half dozen of the other depending on what your free agent pool looks like in terms of middle relievers.

Peter Moylan $1.
Moylan has quietly put together a 17 inning scoreless streak. He's been more than solid after a bad April and is a good middle relief option in N.L.-only leagues.

Yusmeiro Petit $1.
Post All-Star, Petit has quietly turned into a so-so, end-of-the-Roto-rotation option in deep leagues. That sounds like damning with faint praise, but Pre All-Star Petit was a mess. The small sample caveats, apply, but I like the fact that Petit's HR/9 has dropped while his K/9 have gone up. He's at the Giants this week and is a risky match-up play but one you can make if you need to roll the dice.

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