The season always moves too fast. Before we know it, the MLB non-waiver trade deadline is upon us, some players have already been swapped, while some big names are bandied about as well.
Some owners cling tightly to their FAAB all year waiting for this moment. They figure that someone big is going to come over from the "other" league and they'll pounce and get that player. Whether it's Matt Holliday this year or Manny Ramirez and Mark Teixeira last year, they think that waiting for the big name is worth it.
Other owners either need to plug holes or don't want to wait only to find that the big trade deadline prize is Scott Hairston.
There are a significant number of theories out there about spending your FAAB versus hoarding it, but most of these theories focus on the prizes that come in at the trade deadline. Today, I thought I'd look at some players who garnered significant bids early in the season to see if they were worth it.
Ricky Romero. FAAB Date: April 20. Winning bid: $15.
What I said: Three starts into 2009, Romero looks like he might defy expectations and turn into a useful middle-of-the-rotation major league starter. He's an impressive 2-0 with a 1.71 ERA thus far, and more importantly has walked only four batters in 21 IP. Romero isn't overpowering but has sat this year around 91 MPH and has effectively thrown four pitches for strikes, keeping hitters off balance enough to make up for the lack of a true punch out pitch. I don't think Romero is going to put up the ace-like numbers he's delivered thus far, but do believe that his improvement is for real and that we should see a solid MLB starter the rest of the way.
What happened: He's had a bit of a shaky July - 20 walks in 32 IP will do that - but Romero has proven to be exactly what I predicted: a solid MLB starting pitcher for the Jays and for his Rotisserie staffs. He's on pace to earn $16 this year and provide more value than a significant portion of the starting pitchers purchased at auction.
Scott Podsednik. FAAB Date: May 4. Winning bid: $15.
What I said: Podsednik is what he always has been: a poor MLB option in CF who has the potential to steal 40-50 bases if he gets 550 AB. Rotoworld wasted some time tonight wishcasting about the ChiSox moving Alexei Ramirez to CF and letting Jayson Nix play 2B, but I think Pods is going to play unless the Sox make a trade or unless Pods falls off the map. He might not work out at this price, but why not pay $15 for a potential big time SB play?
What happened: Podsednik has done so well that he's been the most valuable A.L. 4x4 free agent hitter to date (on pace to earn $21). His 4/26/15/.308 line isn't incredibly exciting, but given the limited amount of steals in the free agent pool, Pods has definitely made a significant impact.
Brett Cecil. FAAB Date: May 4. Winning bid: $14
What I said: Cecil's a groundball pitcher who has also racked up a lot of strikeouts in the minors. However, he's struggled in his short time in AAA (dating back to last year) and probably needs more seasoning. This is a move to make if you really need to gamble, but otherwise I'd stay away at the moment...
What happened: Despite the poor earnings (-$4), the results for Cecil have definitely been mixed. He has looked very poised and composed on the hill and his numbers from six very good starts have been more than negated by his numbers from three very bad ones. The earnings are what they are, though, so Cecil has looked primarily like a match-up play.
Matt Harrison. FAAB Date: May 11. Winning bid: $15
What I said: John Sickels provided a great write-up on Harrison right before the season started. The big bid here is because he put up two huge games against the struggling White Sox this week, but I agree with Sickels that Harrison is going to get pounded if he keeps putting up that sickly 4.3 K/9....In deep A.L. only leagues, this is probably one of the better pitchers out there, but realize that he's a risky selection.
What happened: Harrison put up a gem on May 14 against the Mariners - posting a complete game two earned run, five baserunner affair - before promptly struggling in his next two starts, hitting the DL, and then struggling in another two starts before going on the DL for good on June 28. It was recently revealed that he has Thoracic Outlet Syndrome in his throwing shoulder and that he will miss the rest of the 2009 season.
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