It's not my favorite column to write, but everyone loves reading about closers. Including me. I religiously read Thor Nystrom's Saves and Steals column over at Rotoworld, and I try to read Fangraphs' A.L. and N.L. breakdowns as well.
(I was also reading Bullpen Box Score as well but - like a lot of nascent blogs - after a promising start there hasn't been any copy since late April. It's too bad...the writing over there was very good, and there is definitely always a segment of Roto owners who love reading about closers).
Tonight, I'll take a look at five A.L. closers/bullpens where I feel like conventional (Roto) wisdom isn't quite telling the whole story.
Baltimore: George Sherrill stinks. George Sherrill is a bottom-of-the-barrel-closer. George Sherrill is a borderline option in mixed leagues. I've heard this refrain so much that I even got fooled. His numbers so far (2.55 ERA, 1.176 WHIP, 23 K in 24 23/ IP entering tonight) are better than those for a few "better" A.L.-only closers, but Sherrill still gets talked about like he's trash. Sherrill's numbers are even more impressive when you consider that he was shaky in April and The Baltimore Sun talked of a closer-by-committee scenario in Birdland. Since May 1, Sherrill has a 1.2 ERA and a 0.933 WHIP. He has a death grip on the job right now, and only a trade will unseat him.
Cleveland: On May 19, Kerry Wood was shelled by the Royals - giving up 4 ER in 2/3 of an inning, pushing his ERA up to 8.31 and blowing his second save of the season. Since then, he's thrown up 9 1/3 scoreless innings, allowed six baserunners, 0 ER, and has eight whiffs. The downside is that he hasn't had a save since May 28. Typically, save opportunities more or less even out over time, so I'd be pretty confident at the moment that Wood has gotten past his early season yips and is going to be the high second-tier option we all believed he'd be back on Opening Day going forward.
Detroit: The CW on Fernando Rodney at the beginning of the year was that he was terrible and that Joel Zumaya would be taking over any day now. It isn't until recently that the CW has flipped. Now the party line is that he hasn't been any great shakes as the Tigers' closer, but that he's been OK. However, Rodney's very quietly put up a putrid June, with a 10.80 ERA in 5 IP. Perhaps more importantly, he's walked five batters this month after walking six in his first 21 IP. Rodney's downfall has always been the walks, so this is something to watch. He's still 12-for-12 in save ops, so I don't think Jim Leyland will make a change unless Rodney starts coughing up some leads. But I'd keep an eye on Brandon Lyon. He's tossed 11 scoreless innings in June with 9 whiffs and a .059 BAA. If Rodney does falter, I expect Lyon - and not Zumaya - to get the ball.
Tampa Bay: J.P. Howell has picked up two of the last three Rays save opportunities, and would seem to be the man (I emphasize the lowercase "m" in "man") at the moment. There isn't really a great option here, though, and since I've been talking about the hot hand throughout this post, keep Joe Nelson's name in mind: the journeyman reliever hasn't allowed a run in June, and a swoon by Howell could put Nelson in line to get the ball the next time Joe Madden needs to make the call in the 9th.
Toronto: Scott Downs went on the DL tonight, so the Jays closer role is probably up for grabs. B.J. Ryan came in to the 9th tonight in a non-save situation and promptly struggled. He couldn't finish the inning and Brandon League had to come in to try and clean up the mess. I don't have any good insights or inside information on who might get the saves while Downs is out, but I think that Cito Gaston is going to go with Jason Frasor. Frasor has pitched well all year long and definitely has earned Cito's trust a lot more than Ryan has. Just a hunch right now, though.
Tomorrow night I'll touch on the National League.
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