How do you see the Tampa Bay catching situation developing? At what point does Madden start pulling at-bats from Navarro? Are Michel Hernandez or Shawn Riggans worthwhile gambles in AL-only leagues?Dioner Navarro has been absolutely awful. He's currently sporting a 189/213/254 line, with a 2/20 K/BB ratio in 122 AB. Perhaps there's a silver lining in that his K/AB ratio isn't horrific, or in his .218 BABIP, but at some point the Rays are going to have to think about either pulling the plug or taking AB away from Navarro.
The significant problem they have is that they don't have any appealing options behind Navarro. Michel Hernandez is a 30-year old minor league journeyman who is only up in the majors because Shawn Riggans is on the DL, and their Triple-A starter - John Jaso - isn't doing much at AAA and probably won't get promoted based on his current performance.
(You can forget about Riggans, by the way; he's out now until mid to late-June, as he had a setback with his right shoulder and his recovery time has been pushed back at least a month.)
Given the in-house options, I think it's unlikely that Joe Madden strips the job from Navarro completely, unless Navarro craters entirely and starts hitting .150 or lower. The more likely scenario is that Hernandez starts 2-3 times a week instead of once a week until Navarro snaps out of his season-long slump. Given Hernandez's track record (he has a career 682 OPS in the minors) he probably isn't going to be much of an option at catcher. If you can pick up him and reserve him there's no harm in that, but unless he's starting every day I'd leave him on the bench.
If you own Navarro, you probably have no choice but to ride him out. The low BABIP, HR/FB% and some of the other more esoteric ratios indicate that Navarro's been unlucky and should break out. Some of his other indicators, though, make it look more likely that he over performed in 2008 and a return to his 2006-2007 numbers are probably more realistic. Madden and the Rays will probably live with this, but if you own Navarro and can upgrade via a dump trade, that's not a bad idea.
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Mike, I am seeing something I never would have expected. A 10 team AL only 5x5 where at least three teams (all in some sort maybe money spot or contention) willing to go with pretty much an absolute zero at catcher (one is the first place team and they get a pass since they are running away with this without any catcher to speak of at all). I would have thought that guys like John Buck would have some value. Are you seeing a similar devaluation of second catchers? The thinking appears to be that a catcher hitting .220 with 90 ABs is worse than a catcher hitting .220 with 40 ABs - leaving aside that guys like Buck do get counting stats. The math can't be so, can it? Not a math guy but .220 in 90 ABs vs. 40 can't drop your BA that much, but the RBIs could help, even just by playing more.
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