N.L. FAAB Log Supplemental: May 11, 2009

Chris Coghlan
Based on his statistical profile coming out of college, Coghlan is one of those players who probably had a 1-in-5 chance of making it to the bigs, despite the fact that the Marlins used a 1st round pick on him. Positive reports about a player's work ethic and his smart play on the diamond can often mask the reality that even if he squeezes 100% out that he still might be slated for utility work. In Coghlan's case, he deserves a lot of credit: he kept up the strong BB/K rates, kept making contact, and managed to translate good speed into a 34 SB season last year at AA Carolina. The guy who should sit for Coghlan is the disappearing Emilio Bonifacio, but so far Coghlan looks like he's going to be a Tony Phillips/Mark DeRosa type: slotting in at a few positions on the diamond and getting 4-5 starts a week. For his speed alone, I'd bid $6. I'm not sure about Coghlan long-term, as I think the Marlins have superior prospects at the lower levels who may eventually supplant him. But he might get a clean shot at a job at some point this year and - based on what he's done so far - should stick.

Jon Niese.
Niese is a good example of why Rotisserie owners should sometimes ignore raw minor league numbers and instead focus on the peripherals. He was getting hammered at AAA Buffalo to the tune of a 6.55 ERA, but had more than a strikeout an inning, had only allowed 1 HR in 22 IP and had a decent walk rate. His decent start against the Pirates shouldn't have come as a shock, and he's definitely a better play than some of the fantasy expert websites are suggesting. Jerry Manuel was raving about Niese's curve, but his bread-and-butter pitch is a heavy fastball that gets grounders. He needs a third pitch (i.e.: he doesn't throw his change nearly enough), but Niese's ceiling is probably as a #3 MLB starter if things break right. I'd bid $6 on him as well. He's worth a shot, but as much as I just ran through the upside I can also see the downside for a two-pitch pitcher without a blazing fastball.