Monday, May 04, 2009

N.L. FAAB Log: May 4, 2009

Julian Tavarez $6. Other bid $1.
Tavarez is the most recent National to pick up a save, getting one versus the Phillies this past Wednesday. He then went out and got shellacked by the Cardinals the following day. Is he still the closer? Maybe in the short-term, though I could also see Manny Acta going with Kip Wells the next time there's a save chance. I could also see Joe Beimel getting the saves when he comes back. I could also see some real-life "Kid From Left Field" scenario taking place, as the Nationals pull some random fan out of the stands and let him close. Tavarez is worth a moderate bid, but you're taking a shot in the dark with any Nats reliever right now.

Adam Rosales $2. Other bids $2, $1.
With Edwin Encarnacion on the shelf, Rosales should get a fair amount of playing time. He has a little power but has been plagued by poor BB/SO rates in the minors, and at 26 projects out more as a utility guy than a starter in the future. He is versatile, so Rosales is a guy who could be showing up on one-league Rotisserie $1 endgame play for years to come.

Fernando Tatis $2. Other bids $2, $2, $1, $1, $1, $1, $1.
As Rotoworld points out, Tatis is getting some playing time due to Carlos Delgado's injury, He's hit before for the Mets in a supersub role, and he should be the first guy called off the bench whenever there's an injury in the OF. In other words, he's a good injury replacement in deep N.L.-only leagues.

Chad Gaudin $2.
Other bid $2.
Gaudin was Bizzaro Pitcher this week, doing well at Coors Field in one start and getting pounded at Dodgers Stadium in another. Pitching in Petco definitely makes him a sleeper FAAB option, though as a groundball pitcher the advantage he gets won't help him as much as it would a flyball pitcher. His big problem against the Dodgers was control; this could be due to the fact that he's still building up durability and getting accustomed to starting again. I like Gaudin a lot as a FAAB play and think the bids here should have been a little higher.

Shairon Martis $2. Other bids $1, $1.
If you want to read a well written and long post about Martis, check this out. To summarize, Martis is a savvy pitcher who doesn't have a plus pitch so he's always going to have to bring his A-game to succeed and will probably have days where he gets pounded. He was great against the Cardinals yesterday and he'll have to follow that formula (work fast, throw strikes, hit your spots) to succeed. It could work out, but guys like Martis don't have a lot of margin for error.

Oliver Perez $1.
Perez is now out of the rotation after yet another terrible start on Saturday against the Phillies. There are conflicting reports on what's next for Ollie (DL? Bullpen? Minors?), but there's no doubt that he's got a long way to go to get himself back into pitching shape so he can be an asset for the Mets and for Rotisserie teams. R.J. Anderson at Fangraphs thinks that the numbers show that Perez isn't this bad, but I see a pitcher whose velocity is markedly down, who isn't changing speeds well and who has lost confidence in his slider. The numbers might show that Perez isn't this bad, but he looks terrible and sometimes you have to go by what you see. He's worth a flier if you're desperate, but you should be desperate.

Willie Harris $1. Other bid $1.
Since I wrote about Harris last, he went on the DL, Lastings Milledge got sent to the minors, and then Harris returned. He's in a position to get a few starts so if he can duplicate last year's unlikely power burst he will have some value as a 4th or 5th Roto OF.

Laynce Nix $1.
Nix had a couple of solid starts this past week, but Jay Bruce is heating up now too so Nix probably won't make any great gains unless Chris Dickerson's concussion symptoms flare up and he winds up on the DL. Nix is a career journeyman with decent power but poor contact rates. If he did start, he'd probably hit .230-.240 and pop a few HR.

Clay Condrey $1. Other bids $1, $1, $1.
Condrey's been amazing the last couple of weeks, tossing 10 1/3 scoreless IP while allowing only nine baserunners to reach. His .192 BABIP and 93.8% LOB are simply unsustainable, and the law of averages tells us that Condrey should come crashing down to earth at some point. He does have three vulture wins, so Charlie Manuel is putting Condrey in a position to win right now.

Doug Brocail $1.

With Jose Valverde hurt and the underwhelming LaTroy Hawkins in the closer role, a lot of touts were suggesting stashing Brocail just in case. That was a good idea, but Brocail left yesterday's game with a hamstring injury and might be headed to the DL. I agree that Brocail is worth stashing, but think that Hawkins is the man right now and Brocail's value is going to be limited right now, healthy or no.

Nate Schierholtz $1.
Not much has changed for Schierholtz since my last write-up. He started yesterday so that Randy Winn could nurse a minor injury, but Schierholtz should be back on the bench this week barring another injury.

Omir Santos $1. Other bid $1.
After starting four games in a row - capped by a grand slam on April 27 - Santos has mostly been on the bench for the Mets in favor of Ramon Castro. That's probably where he belongs. The HR is atypical; Santos is a minor league journeyman who finally made it up for a cup of joe for the Orioles last year. He has no power, poor plate discipline, and his primary value in real baseball is for his defense behind the dish. That means that Santos could get lucky and carve out a MLB niche, but don't let him carve out a Roto niche for you.

Mark DiFelice $1.
He's been one of the best if not the best pitchers in the Brewers pen but is likely stuck in a middle relief role, particularly now that Trevor Hoffman is back and pitching well. DiFelice has two vulture wins and could keep snatching those up if he keeps it up.

Craig Counsell $1.
Counsell got a couple of starts in favor of the slumping J.J. Hardy this weekend, but since Hardy isn't hurt Counsell will likely return to the bench for now. The speed that made him an enticing option in the middle of the '00s is long gone so Counsell has marginal Roto value even in the middle infield.

Edgar Gonzalez $1.
With a number of Padres off to a slow start at the plate, Gonzalez was tabbed to get a couple of starts this weekend. The 30-year-old isn't a prospect and would likely need an injury to David Eckstein to pick up any sustainable value. Gonzalez does have some power for a MI, so he might hit the odd HR if he does keep picking up AB for the Friars.

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