I'm in a 12-team, 6X6, NL-only and Chris Coste is my No. 2 catcher. Robinson Diaz is available as a free-agent. I would like to pick up Diaz, since he's getting regular at-bats in Pittsburgh, but I know he's not going to get many at-bats (if any) when Ryan Doumit returns.My instincts tell me that picking Diaz up for Coste is the right play, but I'm not sure the numbers would back me up.
So, my question is, how do fantasy owners address situations like this--when you know you have a possible starter who might only give you two months of stats; versus a slumping backup who will likely get playing time here and there for an entire season?
Top 10 N.L. FA Catchers 2008
| # | Player | $ | AB | HR | RBI | SB | AVG |
| 1 | John Baker | $7 | 197 | 5 | 32 | 0 | .300 |
| 2 | Mike Rivera | $3 | 62 | 1 | 14 | 2 | .307 |
| 3 | Henry Blanco | $3 | 120 | 3 | 12 | 0 | .292 |
| 4 | Nick Hundley | $2 | 198 | 5 | 24 | 0 | .237 |
| 5 | Wil Nieves | $2 | 176 | 1 | 20 | 0 | .261 |
| 6 | Ryan Hanigan | $2 | 85 | 2 | 9 | 0 | .271 |
| 7 | Matt Treanor | $2 | 206 | 2 | 23 | 1 | .238 |
| 8 | Paul Bako | $1 | 299 | 6 | 35 | 0 | .217 |
| 9 | Raul Casanova | $1 | 55 | 1 | 6 | 0 | .273 |
| 10 | Raul Chavez | $1 | 116 | 1 | 10 | 0 | .259 |
| Average | $2 | 151 | 3 | 19 | 0 | .256 |
You're getting positive earnings here, but barely, and Baker's the only lottery ticket here that would have paid significant dividends over the worst bums who were auctioned.
It might give us a clearer picture if we look at those bums.
Worst 10 N.L. Auctioned Catchers 2008
| # | Player | $ | AB | HR | RBI | SB | AVG |
| 1 | J.R. Towles | -$3 | 146 | 4 | 16 | 0 | .137 |
| 2 | Josh Bard | -$2 | 178 | 1 | 16 | 0 | .202 |
| 3 | Johnny Estrada | -$1 | 53 | 0 | 4 | 0 | .170 |
| 4 | Eliezer Alfonzo | -$1 | 11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | .091 |
| 5 | Michael Barrett | -$0 | 94 | 2 | 9 | 0 | .202 |
| 6 | Mike Rabelo | -$0 | 109 | 3 | 10 | 0 | .202 |
| 7 | Carlos Ruiz | $0 | 320 | 4 | 31 | 1 | .219 |
| 8 | Ronny Paulino | $0 | 118 | 2 | 18 | 0 | .212 |
| 9 | Paul LoDuca | $1 | 173 | 0 | 15 | 1 | .243 |
| 10 | David Ross | $1 | 134 | 3 | 13 | 0 | .231 |
| Average | -$1 | 134 | 2 | 13 | 0 | .206 |
Wow...these guys stunk.
In 4x4, though, nearly all of the gains you would have garnered would have come in batting average. The only reason you might have tossed Ruiz overboard in 2008 for Ryan Hanigan is if you couldn't take another week of 0-fers.
However, batting average is unpredictable...particularly when you're dealing with small sample sizes. Take four hits away from Hanigan last year and he's a .224 hitter. You're still improving your batting average by subtracting Ruiz, but at that point the RBI and HR you're losing might make a move like this value neutral, at best.
Another thing working against a move like this for Anonymous is that in 6x6 there are two more counting categories to consider. So AB are a good thing, since that means more opportunities for runs and whatever sixth offensive category Anonymous is using.
So would I dump Coste in favor of Diaz?
Sure. But given the history of free agent catchers, I wouldn't expect much more than an incremental difference.
2 comments:
My theory is always to add at bats as long as the batting average or OBP depending on what you play isn't taking a huge beating. In the AL Redmond is a good backup for batting average, as an example, so dropping him for a bad average and ABs isn't always the right move. But, I believe that Runs and RBI are highly correlated to playing time and PT is only shown by ABs in our game.
Most teams that lead their league in ABs also are near the top in Runs and RBI. Marginal players who play little get random RBI and Runs. Everyday players get a lot more, even if they are not good.
Take the ABs for a few months then reevaluate which backup on the FA wire is the best choice.
Thanks, as always.
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