Top 10 Rototimes 4x4 A.L. Hitters 2008
| RT Rank | Player | RT$ | AP$ | Diff. |
| 1 | Josh Hamilton | $40 | $36 | +4 |
| 2 | Alex Rodriguez | $40 | $37 | +3 |
| 3 | Dustin Pedroia | $39 | $34 | +5 |
| 4 | Grady Sizemore | $38 | $38 | 0 |
| 5 | Ian Kinsler | $35 | $33 | +2 |
| 6 | Kevin Youkilis | $35 | $31 | +4 |
| 7 | Miguel Cabrera | $35 | $32 | +3 |
| 8 | Ichiro Suzuki | $35 | $33 | +2 |
| 9 | Aubrey Huff | $34 | $31 | +3 |
| 10 | Bobby Abreu | $34 | $32 | +2 |
Rototimes' Player Rater can be found here. Since Patton uses a 70/30 percent split, that's what I plugged in for Rototimes.
Patton's prices used to be a little more aggressive on the elite hitters, but Rototimes seems to have gone the other way and spends anywhere from $2-5 more per player. The exception is Sizemore, so I suspect that Rototimes values batting average more than Patton does.
Top 10 Rototimes 4x4 N.L. Hitters 2008
| RT Rank | Player | RT$ | AP$ | Diff. |
| 1 | Albert Pujols | $47 | $44 | +3 |
| 2 | Jose Reyes | $41 | $43 | -2 |
| 3 | Matt Holliday | $40 | $40 | 0 |
| 4 | Hanley Ramirez | $39 | $40 | -1 |
| 5 | David Wright | $39 | $39 | 0 |
| 6 | Lance Berkman | $38 | $38 | 0 |
| 7 | Carlos Beltran | $34 | $36 | -2 |
| 8 | Ryan Braun | $33 | $35 | -2 |
| 9 | Chase Utley | $33 | $34 | -1 |
| 10 | Chipper Jones | $33 | $31 | +2 |
I'm more than a little confused now. I would have assumed that if Rototimes valued the elite hitters more in the American League that the same thing would have happened in the National League. But only Pujols and Jones are rated higher for their contributions in 2008 under Rototimes' system. The differences are slight, but there are five hitters in the N.L. that Patton has rated higher than Rototimes to zero in the American League.
Why would one set of prices be very similar while another would be radically different?
To review, the Rototimes Player Rater allows you to plug in format, number of teams in the league, and dollar allocation. I went back and checked to make sure that I put in 70/30, 12 teams for the American League, and 13 teams for the National League for 4x4. Correct.
One disadvantage I have in completing this analysis is that I don't know how Rototimes calculates the value for each category. They use a point total and then that spins off to a "Real$" value.
But the value isn't linear. Albert Pujols' 37/116/7/.357 line last year generated 9.27 points and a $46.83 value...or $5.05 per "point". David Wright's 33/124/15/.302 generated 6.99 points and a $38.52 value, which was good for $5.51 per "point".
The points don't matter as much as the dollar values. The most common 168 hitters purchased in the A.L. and 182 most common hitters in the N.L. should generate $2,184 or $2,366 worth of stats if you're using a 70/30 split. But I don't know why the stats Pujols generated would generate fewer dollars per point than Wright's.
I've gotten off track here, though. At a glance, I like Rototimes' N.L. pricing and don't like their A.L. pricing so much. But I'll need to look at more examples in my next post to see if that holds up.
5 comments:
Some pricing systems index the replacement value by position, so a third baseman with the same stats as a first baseman would be more valuable. I don't know if that's what the Rototimes Player Rater is doing, but it would explain your observation.
I would also recommend a visit to Mays Campbell's LastManStanding.com. He's created his own player rater, which most decidedly incorporates position scarcity adjustments. He's also harshly critical of the Rototimes Player Rater, for reasons that weren't clear to me.
It seems as though the points are relative to an "average" player. It looks like a hitter who gets 0 points is worth $13, which is the average price of a hitter ($260 * .7 / 14 = $13).
Then the players are assigned values based on their contribution above average. This seems strange, because why is the average significant? We should only be concerned with contribution above replacement level.
Like Rotoman said, maybe they calculcate replacement level on a position-by-position basis (and they should), but for your example of Wright vs. Pujols, this shouldn't really matter (since the replacement levels of all positions other than catcher in an NL-only league are almost always close enough to not worry about it).
Anyway, the math works out:
(When I ran the player rater, I got slightly different values than you did, not sure why...)
Pujols - 8.00 points - $44.79 = $31.79 above average
Wright - 6.04 points - $37.02 = $24.02 above average
If we just look at $/point, we get:
Pujols - $44.79/8.00 = $5.60/point
Wright - $37.02/6.04 = $6.13/point
But we need to look at $ above average per point:
Pujols - $31.79/8.00 = $3.97
Wright - $24.02/6.04 = $3.97
-Brett
Also, as an aside, it appears that these values DO NOT take replacement value into consideration. Just eyeballing them, compare McCann and Votto:
Joey Votto CIN 1B 526 24 84 7 .297 2.68 $23.67
Brian McCann ATL C 509 23 87 5 .301 2.64 $23.50
Virtually the same stats, and virtually the same # of points and dollar value.
I'd think that McCann would be worth a couple dollars more than Votto, due to the worse replacement level for catchers.
Another reason not to trust these...
Interesting about the price per point above average being the same for Pujols and Wright. I'm not getting what that means, though it must have to do with the RtPR giving different values to each category.
The RotoTimes Player Rater is based, at least in part, on Art McGee's pricing system (which owes a debt to Patton$), which incorporates per category modifications based on the spread of the standings in each category.
I think the SGP process of pricing is a lot of hoo-hah with little practical purpose. If you're making general purpose prices there should be adjustments for the categories that teams regularly dump (saves and steals), but since you can't know what the spread in any individual league's categories is going to be, adjusting for it is as likely to be wrong as right.
Also of note: I doubt the RtPR give 24 catchers prices of $1 and above.
Finally: There is a major question about what pool should get values in post season prices. We pay X amount on draft day, but clearly more than 168 or 182 hitters contribute positively during the year. And given the "free loot" situation, why wouldn't they generate more value than the $3120 or $3380 we spend initially?
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