N.L. FAAB Log: April 6, 2009

Welcome back to what is most likely my blog's most popular feature: FAAB logs.

A brief explanation for new readers. The FAAB logs examine a 4x4 A.L.-only and a 4x4 N.L.-only league's FAAB bids throughout the year. The bids listed here are not my recommended bid limits for players featured in these articles, though I will often offer commentary on the bids themselves.

A.L. FAAB logs will commence next weekend.

Gary Sheffield $18. Other bids $15, $7, $7, $2.
The two top bids here seem high, but teams that have glaring holes on offense are going to bid aggressively on Sheff in most leagues this weekend or next weekend (depending on their rules). The reason there weren't more bids on Sheff is because in this league he can only be put into the UT slot (until he plays a game in the OF). The two questions that immediately come to mind are: 1) will Sheffield play? and 2) does he have anything left? I think the Mets signed him to play him. He should spell both Ryan Church and David Murphy from time to time. His defense is obviously a significant question mark, but we don't have enough data to judge; he hasn't played the OF regularly since 2005. As far as what's left in the tank, that's another unknown. Sheff only hit .178 this spring but he also popped three HR and had a decent batting eye, with a 13/10 BB/SO ratio. I suspect that the batting average will remain low but he'll still pop the odd HR.

My conclusion is that Sheff should be owned in all deep N.L.-only leagues since he has more power potential than most free agents but don't overbid. If he doesn't work out, he will disappear by May.

David Weathers $12. Other bids $6, $1.
Francisco Cordero's awful spring led to this somewhat spirited bidding on Weathers, and an awful Cordero outing on Friday against the Reds AA affiliate probably pushed Weathers' price higher. It's fine to take a flier on Weathers if you don't like Cordero, but I think Cordero will have a little rope to hang himself in the regular season and I like Jared Burton better than Weathers (in terms of ability/numbers) if Cordero can't go. Also keep in mind that Cordero has a big contract, so any opportunity here is limited unless the whispers about Cordero's arm get louder.

Luis Rodriguez $5. Other bids $1, $1.
He hit .287 last year in limited action, but Rodriguez is one of those players who is in the majors for his defense. His career batting average is .257, so maybe he won't kill your BA but given how little else he offers I'd probably pass, even in very deep leagues.

Jeff Keppinger $2. Other bids $2, $1.
If I were in this league, I would have taken Keppinger over Rodriguez, even though Rodriguez has the advantage of a full time gig and Keppinger doesn't. Keppinger isn't that much better though, and a minimal bid is appropriate. Geoff Blum will probably get most of the AB at 3B for the Astros, at least right off the bat.

Craig Monroe $2.
Monroe had a ridiculously good spring, swatting eight HR and earning himself a place on the Pirates bench. He's currently a back-up, but Nyjer Morgan and Brandon Moss are the guys in front of him at the corner OF spots. I don't think Monroe will start, but 250-300 AB aren't out of the question if one or both of the Pirates current corner OF struggles. Keep in mind that Monroe's BA has been awful the last two years and he could disappear just as easily as he could emerge as a cheap power option.
UPDATE: Slyke reminds me that - like Sheffield and Cliff Floyd (see below) that Monroe is a UT only in some leagues to start the season.

Jeremy Affeldt $2. Other bid $1.
Affeldt is a nice ninth pitcher option in both 4x4 and 5x5 leagues, with the only bugaboo being the WHIP. He's also a sleeper for saves if Brian Wilson struggles this year, but will be competing with Bob Howry for that role if Wilson does go down.

Kiko Calero $2.
Matt Lindstrom now looks like he's good to go for Opening Day, but Calero remains an interesting CIW candidate in a young and untested bullpen. He was dynamite with the A's and the Cardinals from 2003-2006 before injuries knocked him out and led to a very long recovery period. If he's healthy (and his stellar spring stats imply that he is), he could be a nice 4x4 candidate for a $10-15 year.

Steven Shell $1. Other bid $1.
He's probably the logical alternative to Joel Hanrahan if he goes down or is ineffective. Shell put up solid numbers last year in a middle relief role and seems to have earned Manny Acta's trust. At the very least, Shell might be a candidate for a handful of vulture wins.

Cliff Floyd $1.
He isn't getting as much press because he was never the player that Sheffield was, but Floyd might be the better play for this year than Sheff is. He's backing up Chase Headley - a player who Floyd outdid in OPS in 2008 - and could start squeezing his way into the line-up 2-3 times a week if Headley struggles or slumps. Keep your expectations realistic and hope for strong production from your 5th OF. Like Sheffield, Floyd qualifies at UT only until he gets some time in the field (he was a DH only in the A.L. last year).

Nate Schierholtz $1.
Schierholtz is one of those players who shouldn't continue to succeed based on his peripherals but does anyway: hitting for a strong batting average despite poor plate discipline. It doesn't matter too much for now - he's stuck behind Fred Lewis, Randy Winn, and Aaron Rowand in the Giants outfield - but Schierholtz is a guy to stash if your league allows you to reserve active major league players and hope that the Giants flip Winn for prospects in June or July.

John Grabow $1. Other bid $1.
Closer in waiting for the Pirates behind Matt Capps. He's worth owing, but the ERA he had last year was lucky when you look at the WHIP. Something between a 3.50 to a 4.00 might be more realistic. Capps was pretty solid last year, so don't look for Grabow as one of the better CIW options if he's available.

Omar Infante $1.
Infante has slightly more value than your typical infield back-up because you have to expect Chipper Jones to miss 30-40 games at some point this year. But Infante offers little speed or power and is nothing better than a move-the-chains type of player. He's fine at $1 but if you have him keep looking to upgrade.

Willie Harris $1.
Harris was simply unreal last year, putting up a $13 season in 367 AB and showing unexpected power. He's buried on the Nats depth chart right now, though, and I think the best you can hope for this year out of the gate are a couple of steals off of the bench. Don't count on the power.

Zach Duke $1.
Duke is a poor risk, but finding a starting pitcher in the free agent pool in April is a rarity, so I imagine the winning bidder here is taking the plunge and will bail quickly if Duke doesn't work out. He gets the Cardinals on Wednesday. Some were encouraged by Duke's final spring outing against the Twins (five shutout IP), but the 16/7 K/BB in 28 IP this spring is more telling than the 3.86 ERA. Duke is starting to look like a borderline MLB starter, and I think that's what he'll pitch like in 2009.