What's sort of value ought we be aiming for coming out of the auction? If I calculate that auctioning at inflation-par I will have a $313 team - am I playing for it this year? Or should I look to build for next year?In most leagues, a $313 team coming out of the auction should be a solid contender, a strong contender, or a winning team in especially competitive leagues.
This is what my American League looked like heading into yesterday's auction:
2009 Billy Almon Brown Graduate
Freeze/Inflation Projected $ Values
| Team | Salary | Value | $ to Spend | Auction Value | Total $ |
| Team 1 | $137 | $209 | $123 | $96 | $305 |
| Team 2 | $128 | $198 | $132 | $103 | $301 |
| Team 3 | $132 | $189 | $128 | $100 | $289 |
| Team 4 | $142 | $189 | $118 | $92 | $281 |
| Team 5 | $110 | $160 | $150 | $117 | $277 |
| Team 6 | $176 | $195 | $84 | $66 | $261 |
| Team 7 | $53 | $85 | $207 | $162 | $248 |
| Team 8 | $124 | $141 | $136 | $106 | $247 |
| Team 9 | $162 | $163 | $98 | $77 | $240 |
| Team 10 | $36 | $63 | $224 | $175 | $238 |
| Team 11 | $77 | $86 | $183 | $143 | $229 |
| Team 12 | $79 | $61 | $181 | $142 | $203 |
I have run this chart in previous years if you want to see an explanation. My A.L. this year had an uncharacteristically high 28% inflation rate, so teams with a lot of money to spend took it a little more on the chin than usual.
So, yes, if you have a $313 projected team you should be playing for this year. Even if your league has a team with a juggernaut of a freeze list, a $313 squad means that you still have a shot based on the variability of earnings from player to player, the fact that you probably have a good amount of dump chips to move to another owner, and the other factors that make the season unpredictable enough so that we play it out and don't just plug the rosters into the software of our choice and declare the winners in April.
1 comment:
Thanks for the analysis.
Think I blew it at the auction, though. Went in with a keeper list of Lester 6, Sabathia 22, Buerhle 11, E Jackson 1, Litsch 6, C Ray 5, Arredondo 5, F Francisco 5, Snider 7, Hamilton 28, Kinsler 27, Upton 16 and Laird 6.
Came out with
Contreras 1, V Wells 21, Konerko 26, DeRosa 21, Lowell 14, Nady 16, Scutaro 9, Lugo 1, Endy Chavez 1, and Johjima 4.
Promised myself Id get in the bidding on Holliday, Teixeira, Bay and M. Cabrera - but got cold feet. They went for 39, 48, 38 and 48 respectively. There was high inflation on hitters (see my panic Konerko, 26), but low inflation on pitchers (Dice-K 28, Wood 22 were the highest prices paid)
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