In my league (12-team, NL-only, $260, 4x4), there's a weird confluence of a couple teams already giving up on this season due to pathetic freeze lists, a new owner coming in at the last minute and not being able to attend the draft, and just some CRAZY freezes. As a result, there won't be a lot of top talent available at the draft (only 7 of the top 25 hitters and five of the top 25 pitchers). However, there also won't be insane inflation (just under 30%). My freeze list is strong, with $63 frozen for 174 in talent, which puts me second heading into the draft. What I don't have is a lot of top tier hitting talent. Unfortunately, I think teams who haven't done their homework will freak out early, and prices for the best players will go through the roof. For example, I have Wright at $35 pre-inflation, $44 with inflation, but it wouldn't surprise me if he goes $50-$55. How should I adjust?I often don't post an entire comment - particularly if it's a long one like this - but since we've all mentally been at this point prior to an auction, I thought I'd address T.J.'s dilemma.
The good news for T.J. is that he should have a $326 team even if all he does is buy a team at inflation par. That should put him in a good position to field a competitor even if all he does is pay those par prices, such as $44 for Wright (my calculation at 30% would be $46).
There isn't much T.J. can or should do to adjust before the auction. His goal should be to buy players at $1-2 under their inflated prices or even at inflation par if there is a player that he needs who fits a specific categorical need. His hope then should be that the favorite in this auction "panics" and overspends on one of those top players (like T.J. thinks might happen).
Every year, even the savviest owners (myself included) feel a little woozy when we look at the money out there versus the talent out there and think "I'm not going to be able to buy a team!" But we shouldn't fret. If we calculate inflation correctly, the money that we're willing to spend should match the money that's available in the auction.
My recommendation to T.J. is to buy the players as they come. If David Wright slips to $43, get him. If Wright and the other superstars who are out there at the beginning of the auction go past their inflation prices, then the next tier of players should be available at good prices and that's where T.J. should capitalize.
Don't worry about "missing out" on the top players. You will be able to be a team if your pricing is correct. Which it will be, if you've been reading my blog and have a good grasp on the concept of inflation.
4 comments:
Actually, a decent idea might be to look at the mock draft lobby over at ESPN. A bunch of those players are terrible at auctions (spending $50-plus on Wright, etc.). It's a good primer for crazy mid- and endgame values.
Actually, a decent idea might be to look at the mock draft lobby over at ESPN. A bunch of those players are terrible at auctions (spending $50-plus on Wright, etc.). It's a good primer for crazy mid- and endgame values.
Ah, Stage 1. I remember it fondly. Although it's been so long since I played in a Stage 1 league that I probably don't remember it correctly.
Toz and Mike: With the stress placed here on buying under inflation value, I am not sure how you derive accurate values for players if you arent a statistician. One could of course learn the McGee method or reach some mid-point of MF's, LABR's and Tout War's prices, but what other alternatives are there? What is the effect of not accurately pricing players? Thank you for all your help and the time you take to answer our questions.
Sorry, I think you covered this back in march of 2008 and earlier so no real need to answer this question again.
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