In the CBS Sportsline Analysts League, Don Visco of Crucial Sports put together a team with a $238 offense and a $22 pitching staff. After the auction, it looked like this:
Catchers: Dioner Navarro $11, Rod Barajas $2.
Infielders: Miguel Cabrera $40, Derek Jeter $24, Adrian Beltre $24, Paul Konerko $14, Aaron Hill $10, Lyle Overbay $10, Yuniesky Betancourt $10.
Outfielders: Jacoby Ellsbury $34, Vladimir Guerrero $30, Vernon Wells $23, Marcus Thames $1, Marlon Byrd $1.
Pitchers: Fausto Carmona $11, Kyle Davies $2, Kevin Millwood $2, Jensen Lewis $2, Vicente Padilla $1, Manny Delcarmen $1, Luke Hochevar $1, Mark Lowe $1, Rick Porcello $1.
His reserve picks were Joe Inglett, Dallas Braden, Casey Janssen, Ramon Santiago, Brad Wilkerson, Jamey Carroll, and Scott Richmond.
Don Visco was kind enough to offer his thoughts on his auction here.
It's hard to argue with any $238 offense. In this league in particular, I liked this offense because Visco avoided some of the incredibly expensive buys like Grady Sizemore ($51), Alex Rodriguez ($50), Justin Morneau ($40), and Mark Teixeira ($43) among others: players with virtually no upside at those prices and only downside. I thought Cabrera was a little expensive at $40, but when you're spending that much on offense, you can afford to overspend a little here and there. Furthermore, that overspending was somewhat offset by what I perceived as moderate bargains in Thames, Byrd, and Hill.
The larger question I have is: can you win a league with a $22 pitching staff?
Visco thinks so:
Since pitching is easier to find (even during the season), I won't ever spend much on pitching. I was price enforcing when I landed Carmona, but the rest of the guys were a mix of starters and closers-in-waiting. The starters are Davies, Hochevar, Porcello, Millwood and Padilla. Several of those guys are fungible with waiver pool guys (though I was happy to land Braden in the reserve draft) and I'll see how the rest of the spring works out before making a move. My closers-in-waiting are Lowe, Delcarmen and J. Lewis. I like all three of those guys, especially the last two, and I am happy to have them.One thing I can't disagree with is that the pitchers at the bottom of the heap last year turned a profit.
A.L. Pitchers Purchased for $3 or less: 2008
| League | # | Cost | $ |
| CBS | 41 | $65 | $240 |
| LABR | 39 | $63 | $144 |
| Tout | 41 | $77 | $187 |
| Average | 40 | $68 | $190 |
In both Sportsline and Tout Wars, 38% of all of the pitchers purchased in the A.L. went for $3 or less. "Only" 36% of the pitchers in LABR went for $3 or under.
That's still a lot of pitchers going on the cheap.
And the raw dollars seem to indicate success. Even in LABR, where the success was the most modest, the experts there turned an $81 profit on these pitchers. Tout Wars saw a $110 profit, while Sportsline hit the jackpot, getting back $175 worth of profit on these pitchers, or $4.27 per pitcher.
There are a couple of problems here, though.
First, while a $4.27 profit per pitcher sounds spectacular, since these bottom feeders only cost $1.59 per pitcher, you're only getting back about $5.85 per pitcher. That's good for a $53 pitching staff. An $85 pitching staff is about average. You're turning a profit, but still buying a subpar staff.
The bigger problem is that your chances of buying a pitcher who is going to push you to a winning pitching staff are poor.
Last year, only three starting pitchers who were purchased in LABR at $3 or less earned $10 or more. Tout Wars did a little better, picking up four starting pitchers like this, while Sportsline did the best, picking up six pitchers who earned $10 or more in 2008.
I still don't like those odds.
Does this mean that spending little on pitching can't work?
It can...if you get the right pitchers. But the odds are not in your favor.
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