It's early, but tonight I thought I'd take a peek a handful of the more poorly projected closers in the American League, see how they are doing, and speculate how well they're going to do the rest of the way. Tomorrow night I'll look at the N.L.
Baltimore. Closer: George Sherrill. CIW: Chris Ray.
My take before the season on this situation is that I thought it would mirror what happened with B.J. Ryan last year in Toronto. For those of you with very short memories who don't remember, Ryan was pitching for the Jays last spring, but the smart money (including me) thought that Jeremy Accardo would close for at least a month and possibly two. It turned out that the smart money was quite stupid, as Ryan got his first save on April 13, Accardo only got one more save after that, and was shut down after missing month after month with a "strained right forearm".
Of course, every situation is different. Ray came out of the gate poorly so far, and Sherrill has pitched well with the exception of a poor outing in a non-save situation versus the Rangers. I still don't trust Sherrill long-term, but Ray owners who thought they might get 25-30 saves out of their man should be looking at other options if those saves were a necessity and not a luxury.
Tampa Bay. Closer: Troy Percival. CIW: Dan Wheeler, Grant Balfour, Jason Isringhausen.
There was a lot of speculation out of the Roto and numbers community that anyone besides Percival would eventually be given the job, since Percival is only the 5th best pitcher in that pen based on his FIP and the BABIP and all of the other bad, evil alphabet mojo he's got going against him. However, Joe Madden had expressed confidence in a healthy Percival so I figured that he'd have the job. And indeed he does. His numbers have been bad, but we're talking about a limited sample size and a game apiece against the Red Sox and Yankees. If he can put up the K/IP that he did last year (7.49), then he can be a capable closer who like most bottom end closers will have his bad nights. That doesn't mean that Balfour and J.P. Howell aren't better pitchers. It just means that the Rays will stick with Percival if he's a competent MLB reliever, which he can be in 2009.
Detroit. Closer: Fernando Rodney. CIW: Brandon Lyon, Joel Zumaya, Ryan Perry.
The assumption here going into Spring Training was that the guy who got the $4.25M contract (Lyon) was going to close for the Tigers. But a poor spring by Lyon - punctuated by the Red Sox hitting four consecutive HR against him - led to Jim Leyland giving Rodney the job to start the season. The knock on Rodney has always been throws hard but doesn't know where it's going, but so far this year Rodney hasn't walked a batter in four IP and has been solid to start the year. Obviously, Rodney's going to walk some guys at some point, but if he can keep the walks within 4.0 to 4.5 per nine, he could be better than projected. His rates from 2005-2008: 3.48, 4.27, 3.73, 6.69. He missed the first two months of 2008 with shoulder tendinitis, and it's possible that this affected his control last year. Don't expect miracles. But given the competition he still might have best combination of talent and skills in that pen. Lyon isn't that good, Zumaya is brittle, and Perry looks like he might be great at some point but is still a work in progress.
Seattle. Closer: Brandon Morrow. CIW: David Aardsma, Miguel Batista, Roy Corcoran, Mark Lowe.
I talked about this a little bit yesterday. Morrow is still the closer, but his extremely iffy control has led to two saves for Aardsma. Right now it looks like it's down to both of them, as Batista has pitched more in the middle innings and Corcoran's lack of a punch out pitch has pushed him down the depth chart. I still like Morrow for this job for the rest of the year, but if you have the opportunity to handcuff Aardsma to him you should do it.
4 comments:
Lyon had the job to start the season, but blew the save on Opening Day.
Jim Leyland tabbed Rodney as his closer on April 1, according to the Detroit Free Press. Lyon was brought in on April 7 - the second game of the season, not Opening Day - with a three-run lead in the 8th. He blew the save, but it's not uncommon to see a non-closer blow a save prior to the ninth inning.
As a Ray owner, I must admit Sherrill seems pretty locked in and a lot would have to happen before Ray gets another look. Everything that happened in Spring Training seems to have set up this outcome. All that talk by Sherrill that he wouldn't mind if Ray closed games - just goes to show how professional athletes often optimize their performance by removing pressures.
While I agree with your assessments on the teams you have analyzed - I'd say that Toronto and maybe Anaheim are other teams which may see a change at the back-end before year's out. BJ Ryan can't throw consistent strikes down in the zone - and its hurting him. He's already blown one save and given up another to Jason Frasor. I think he's on a short leash with Cito Gaston. Scott Downs, despite not having the ordinary closer repetoirt, may be a guy who ends up with 12-15 saves.
Anaheim is a bit of a different story, having laid out $9 million per to Fuentes. He's bound to get a longer leash - but pitching in the "better league", I think he could lose his job by the all-star break. Arredondo was a no-brainer from the time it became clear to everyone that K-Rod was leaving. Why Anaheim thought it best to spend $9 million on Fuentes ahead of A) Starting pitching or B) Shortstop and infield depth - remains one of the great mysteries of this past off-season
Well, keep in mind that the Angels did not know that more of their starters would go down. The Angels rotation, with a healthy Lackey, Escobar, Santana, Saunders and Weaver, with Adenhart and Loux behind them, with more help on the way, is solid. Why blow the bank for the pitchers available?
As for Arrandondo, yes he won 10 games. Yes, his WHIP was great. On the other hand, at 24, he struck out less than a batter an inning, had never closed before and blew 7 saves last year (which are actually blown holds for the most part). He's good, but let's not annoint him as the savior just yet.
Middle infield might have been a nice place (though the Angels have a lot of bodies here as well); who?
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