Saturday, March 21, 2009

NL LABR - BP

Some additional NL LABR teams are leaking out prior to the release this week, and I have had a chance to look at a bit larger context. Once all of the teams are released, I'll try to break them down as quickly as possible before Tout Wars, since I know you are all now in full auction mode.

DB11 over at Faketeams.com was nice enough to post BPs team with Clay Davenport's commentary, so we have some insight into what Clay was thinking. I don't have a subscription to get behind the wall at BP, so if Clay has commented, I'm not aware of it.

At first blush, it appears that Clay's theory on offense was to purchase two of the top three-four catchers, one other stud, and blow-off the middle infield. He spent $180 on offense, so he is pretty close to the standard split.

Clay accomplished his goals pretty well. He got Wright at $44, which, all in all, is a pretty good anchor price. He landed Martin for $24 and McCann for $22, giving him a huge advantage behind the plate (or is it...more on this in a moment). Votto at $27 at Kouzmanoff at $14 are also reasonable buys. So where did the rest of the money go? $49 went to: David Newhan, Brendan Ryan, Ramon Vazquez, Gregor Blanco, Nate Schieroltz, Colby Rasmus, Cameron Maybin ($11) and Justin Upton ($17). The middle infield is awful at best, and, frankly, I don't see enough excess anywhere else to justify a trade in the middle - perhaps on the pitching side. There is potential in the outfield...Rasmus, as we know, could go 15/15. Blanco, unfortunately, doesn't look like he is going to make the squad. Schieroltz also seems to be a man without a position at the moment. All in all, way too many holes.

Pitching is not much better. Santana is a very nice anchor at $30. Hoffman is also a very good value at $13. Blanton, O. Perez, Andrew Miller and Daniel Cabrera are backing him up, not an impressive group. On the reliever side, Soriano at $8, Meredith at $5, Pena at $4 and D. Reyes at $1 seem illogical given that C. Perez went for $10, Qualls and Wilson went for $13, Gonzalez went for $11 and Lindstrom/Nunez went for a combined $14. There seem to be plenty of closer options at very reasonable prices that would have fit nicely with Hoffman. Clay does say he was going to dump saves, but you need to change on the fly when you see these prices fall.

Clay has a lot of holes on offense, and the pitching is a big risk...there are plenty of strikeouts, but a lack of wins and middle of the road in saves. Perez and Blanton will be a drag on the qualitatives as well. This team is likely one that, barring a significant trade (perhaps moving Hoffman for good secondary starter or some middle infield help), is going to struggle to compete.

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