Inflation Per Position

An anonymous poster found my analysis of how inflation is distributed "interesting", but thinks that I'm still missing something:

The analysis points to valuation but does not reference scarcity in the given auctions. It could be scarcity (SP vs. closer vs. power availability) played a large role. For example, my experience has been in a draft short on starting pitching to see some variance at the top but tremendous inflation at the middle tiers. Are you able to elaborate on how scarcity played a role in the analysis?

A fair point. Let's look at the data I presented yesterday in a different light:

Billy Almon Brown Graduate 2006-2008 by Position

Position	Proj. Value	Salary	+$4	-$4
C (51)	$393	$427	0	4
1B (36)	$476	$430	3	2
2B (26)	$269	$288	1	4
SS (35)	$481	$480	3	3
3B (34)	$555	$550	3	7
OF (102)	$1487	$1425	19	10
DH (10)	$200	$185	3	0
SP (110)	$967	$1022	7	20
CL (17)	$423	$450	1	4
MR (66)	$174	$183	2	5

Anonymous is correct; there is definitely a lot of overspending for starting pitchers on a case-by-case basis. A whopping 18% go for $4 or more than their inflation par bid limits. There are players overpaid at every position except for DH, but starting pitchers seem to be even more likely to be overpaid. How do these overpriced buys break down?

Billy Almon Brown Graduate 2006-2008:
Overpays by Position and Price

Position	$30+	$20-30	$10-19	$0-9
C	0	0	1	3
1B	0	0	1	1
2B	0	0	3	1
SS	0	0	0	3
3B	0	0	5	2
OF	0	1	2	7
DH	0	0	0	0
SP	1	3	5	11
CL	1	0	1	2
MR	0	0	0	5
Totals	2	4	18	35

The money ranges at the top of the chart aren't for what these players cost but for what their inflation par bids were.

And the overspending mostly takes place at the bottom of the pile, even for the starting pitchers. Some of this is probably due to starter scarcity, but I think that most of it simply has to do with differences of opinion. Erik Bedard went for $40 in my league last year. I thought that was $11 too high, but this price wasn't out of line with a lot of the prices I saw in various publications last winter...particularly when a 20% inflation rate was factored in.

Experienced leagues are certainly going to see some overpriced players but will still hold on the line at both the top and the middle of the spectrum. It is when you get closer to the bottom of the pile that you may see more prices that are out of line with what you are expecting. Make sure to spend your money early if this is the case. There will be enough fluctuation in opinion on the bottom players that you should be able to get a few bargains simply based on the customary differences of opinion all owners have on the players toward the bottom of the spectrum.