Sorry for my extended absence...time to get back to work.
LABR teams are beginning to leak out, so it is time to start taking a look at some of the teams and the respective strategies. Of course, there are limitations as to what we can do here since the entire auction will not be released until next week. Nonetheless, let's start by taking a look at fantasybaseball.com's LABR auction.
Perry Van Hook is right when he says that you need to read his pre-auction analysis to understand his auction. You can find that here. The strategy advocated here is an "auction budget sheet" strategy (first set out by Mallin and Mann in their 1990 book - yes, folks, computer statistical analysis was around WAAAAY back then), where hitters and pitchers are slotted 1-14 and 1-9 (10 in this case in LABR) and specific dollar amounts are allotted to each slot without regard to position. Van Hook went in with a $195/$65 split allocated on his sheet.
Slotting dollar values is, in my opinion, a dangerous game and has several potential shortcomings. First, slotting auction dollars can create a very rigid mentality with very little flexibility. Second, slotting players may put you in a position to stop buying upper tier players that may be at value or below value on your bid limit sheet. Third, slotting makes it difficult to assess stats during the auction - bargains, a key component in Van Hook's strategy, may not occur at the price slot you want...and if those bargains occur too late, you aren't buying enough stats.
We don't know where some of Van Hook's players came up in the auction, but we can still get a sense of how he did from a price perspective. Generally speaking, his prices are ok. The offense appears well-rounded, though I question if there are enough stats there. Red flag number one is the fact that Van Hook made a decision to transfer $10 of his hitting budget to his pitching budget. Red flag number two is the fact that he invested those $10 into purchasing Tommy Hanson. Spending $10 less on offense to purchase a pitcher without a rotation spot not only hurts your pitching, but hurts the offense as well.
The justification Van Hook gives is that these up and comers cost too much in FAAB when they come into the league undrafted. I am not sure I buy this justification. In a start-over league with no salary cap, no keepers and a reserve draft, FAAB cost is generally not relevant. Those auction dollars are significantly more valuable because there are only $260 of them. Spending those dollars on Hanson deprives your roster of purchasable stats that will go to another owner (**I spent $1 on Tommy Hanson in the CBS Sportsline Expert Auction...he was my last pitcher and, at $1, I thought that was a fair gamble.). My experience in expert leagues to date is that there is plenty of FAAB to go around, and you do not always need to purchase the hot minor leaguer or AL superstar to be successful (see my CBS Sportsline Expert League last year, with my hot picks of Russell Branyan and others at $0 or $1). FAAB, however, is another discussion for another time.
Speaking of pitching, this is where auction budget slots fail in my opinion. The price on Nolasco is fine...again, we need to see the overall prices. The price on Broxton is okay as well (though, as Mike G. has pointed out, closers are significantly overrated in 5x5 for the price paid). Unfortunatey, Van Hook only bought one closer (Hoffman went for $13 in LABR, btw), and Rauch and Wade likely were not the best relievers on the table. $11 for Hanson is a mistake. And while the prices for pitchers like Olsen, Arroyo, Wolf, Garland and Lohse are decent, without a true anchor for qualitative stats, these pitchers can blow up ERA and WHIP in a hurry.
All in all, a well-balanced offense that might be a little light, and a pitching staff that I cannot imagine is better than middle of the road or worse. We'll see how auction budget slotting matches up against other strategies in the next few posts.
1 comment:
For all the reasons you mentioned, slotting dollar values seems like "auction budgeting for dummies." It's something that I'd maybe advise for someone in their first auction - it makes things more rigid, and essentially makes the auction seem more like a draft for the beginners.
I'd be embarrassed to call myself a "professional" and advocate a bidding strategy like this. A professional should be able to adjust on the fly, and should be able to regroup after the $40 player he wanted goes for $50, and instead take several $15-20 players.
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