Tuesday, March 17, 2009

Joe Mauer 2009

Frank shares a dilemma with a number of A.L.-only owners:
I have (Joe) Mauer as a potential keeper on all three of my AL-only teams at $24, $25, and $26 respectively (and have fought off several trade offers). He's entering his age 26 season, and I had no doubts about keeping him, but as Opening Day looms, I'm starting to wonder. What would your raw bid limit be if you were bidding now?
There are a two separate issues here.

The first issue is simple: what would I pay for Joe Mauer if I had to set a price on him today?

My bid limit for Mauer on February 11 in the CBS Sportsline Analysts League was $24. This bid was adjusted upward slightly from a raw bid limit of $21 and based on the fact that catcher is a thin position in the American League, that Mauer would contribute across all five categories, and that at 26 years of age some slight improvement is actually possible.

If I had to set a price for Mauer today, I would probably put that price at $19 or $20. His status for Opening Day looks questionable. The good news is that his injury sounds more like something that can be treated with anti-inflammatory medications and rest and not something that will require surgery.

Frank's secondary issue is whether or not to trade Mauer.

The nice thing for Frank (and most owners) is that their freeze dates are still 1-2 weeks away. Since the results of Mauer's second opinion haven't come in yet, I'd still treat Mauer like he was a $22-24 player and review all offers using this value as a baseline. That makes him tradable if the right offer comes along but I'd still treat him like a keep in leagues with mild to moderate inflation either until the other shoe drops and the news is worse or until your freeze date is much closer.

The usual caveats to deciding what a player is worth apply. If your freeze list is weak, gambling on Mauer might be the right move anyway. If you have a strong freeze list, you might be better off throwing Mauer back, spending $8-10 on a "safer" catcher, and spending your additional $16-18 on another player elsewhere.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Thanks! My first roster freeze deadline is 8 AM tomorrow morning, and I've decided not to keep Mauer at $26. I just couldn't justify using 10% of my available dollars on him when there's so much uncertainty about when he'll be ready.