I play in a 4x4 keeper...Pedroia is available in this year's draft. I can't see him climbing past $30.My raw, uninflated bid for Pedroia in the CBS Sportsline auction was $31. As my regular readers already know, Pedroia went for $40. Way too much.
As far as what Pedroia's price should be, I'm inclined to agree with Toz
In a keeper league, with inflation, at 2B, I'll be paying $30 or more for Pedroia.My "regular" A.L.'s inflation rate is typically 20%, so if I get Pedroia at $30, it's a no-brainer, and probably a bit of a bargain. It's when a look at that $31 raw bid again that I start to feel a little clammy.
Thirty-one dollars with a 20% inflation rate puts Pedroia at $37. That sounds...wrong. Or - right or wrong - it sounds like an amount I'd never be willing to pay for Pedroia, inflation or no.
Why would I have any kind of bad feeling about a player who earned $34 last year, nearly put up a 20/20 season, won an MVP award, and hit .326?
Top 10 Gainers 2006-2007, 2008 Hitters
The chart above lists the 10 Major League hitters who made the biggest gains - in Patton $ - from 2006 to 2007. Their prices - while not absurd - were a little too high in retrospect.
The market tries to compensate for this on the seasoned veterans. Pena, Guillen, Ordonez, and A-Rod all take pay cuts. Guillen and Ordonez's pay drops seem a little silly looking back. Conventional wisdom suggested that both of these players would fall, but the market turns their back on both of these guys until they're as certain as they can be - in March - that they'll turn a profit.
But the rest of these hitters are young up-and-comers. Of this subset of this grouping, only Hart gets a slight pay cut. The rest of these guys get raises, and all of them lose money.
Again, it's not a significant amount of money across the board. But it's enough to make you want to temper your bids just a little bit on the young up-and-comers in 2009.
Inflation makes this a tougher game to play. If I pay what I believe is par for Pedroia ($31) in a non-freeze league, and he provides the same ROI as the players above, I've got a $26 player. I don't want to lose $5 on Pedroia, but I can live with a $5 loss - particularly because I can count on one hand the American League middle infielders I expect to earn $25 or more.
If I pay inflation par, though, I've now sunk $37 into a $26 player. The return on my investment drops from 82% (26/31) to 70% (26/37), and it's going to be that much harder to field a competitive team.
Maybe I shouldn't be too worried; Pedoria doesn't make the list of the Top 10 gainers from 2007 to 2008.
1) Carlos Quentin ($28 gain from 2007 to 2008)
2) Joey Votto ($26)
3) Jorge Cantu ($25)
4) Alexei Ramirez ($24)
5) Evan Longoria ($22)
6t) Jacoby Ellsbury ($21)
6t) Josh Hamilton ($21)
6t) Ryan Ludwick ($21)
9t) Mike Aviles ($19)
9t) Manny Ramirez ($19)