Saturday, January 10, 2009

Top 10 Rookie Lists: A.L. Pitchers

As excited as some of us may get by pitching prospects, what really gets our motors humming are pitching prospects who can help us right now.

Top 10 A.L. Pitcher Prospects - John Sickels

RankPlayer$CBS
LABR
TW
AP
Level
1Clay Buchholz
-$14$11
$11
$15$12ML
2Joba Chamberlain
$12
$11$15
$13
$9ML
3David Price
$3$1R-1
R-1
R5ML
4Jake McGee

R-2R-4


AA
5Wade Davis

R-4
R-6

AAA
6Ian Kennedy
-$12
$5$7
$9$8ML
7Gio Gonzalez
-$7
$1
$1
$2
R1
ML
8Eric Hurley
-$1
R-2
R-4


ML
9Fautino De Los Santos





A
10Chris Tillman





AA

average
-$2$3$3
$4$3

From that perspective, the big names here were Buchholz, Chamberlain, and Kennedy. Price and Gonzalez were guys the market was taking a flier on; even at $2, Gonzalez's eventual owner knew there was a good chance that Gio would never grace his roster.

Unlike in the N.L., this was a thin group in terms of major league potential/impact for 2008. Perhaps Baseball America's list will have more pitchers who were closer to the majors last spring.

Top 10 A.L. Pitcher Prospects - Baseball America

RankPlayer$CBS
LABR
TW
AP
Level
1Joba Chamberlain
$12$11
$15
$13$9ML
2Clay Buchholz-$14
$11$11
$15
$12ML
3David Price
$3$1R-1
R-1
R5ML
4Jake McGee

R-2R-4


AA
5Wade Davis

R-4
R-6

AAA
6Rick Porcello





A
7Nick Adenhart
-$5
R-5
R-1
R-1
R2
ML
8Gio Gonzalez-$7$1$1$2R1ML
9Adam Miller

$1
$2
R-3
R1
AAA
10Deolis Guerra





A

average
-$1$3$3
$3$2

Nope. Without Kennedy, the Baseball America list has even fewer potential impact guys listed.

Maybe I've been following Sickels for too long, but Adenhart and Miller feel like odd choices. They especially feel like odd choices for Baseball America, given their general love for younger prospects who haven't disappointed them - or us - yet.

Miller does draw some bids from Sportsline and Tout Wars, while Adenhart is treated as well as Price is in the reserve draft. That makes some sense. The touts aren't looking at what people will think of their picks 10 years from now; they want to win this year. If Ervin Santana or Joe Saunders had fallen flat (as some expected), then Adenhart might have logged significant innings in the rotation. If Cliff Lee had burned out completely - which would have surprised no one - Miller might have gotten a shot.

Once again, it's the similarities from list to list to list that are striking.

Top 10 A.L. Pitcher Prospects - Baseball Prospectus
RankPlayer$CBS
LABR
TW
AP
Level
1Clay Buchholz
-$14$11
$11
$15$12ML
2Joba Chamberlain
$12
$11$15
$13
$9ML
3David Price
$3$1R-1
R-1
R5ML
4Rick Porcello





A
5Wade Davis

R-4
R-6

AAA
6Nick Adenhart
-$5
R-5R-1
R-1R2ML
7Neftali Feliz





AA
8Ian Kennedy-$12$5$7$9$8ML
9Jake McGee
R-2R-4

AA
10Chris Tillman





AA

average
-$2$3$3
$4$3

Feliz is the only pitcher here who isn't on either the Sickels or the BA list (great call by the Prospectus folks).

Looking once again at serious money leagues, this is how my regular A.L. saw it:

Frozen: Buchholz $15, Chamberlain $12.
Auction: Kennedy $11.
Farm 2008: Price, G. Gonzalez, McGee, Porcello
Farm 2007 or earlier: Adenhart, Miller
Not Drafted: Davis, Hurley, De Los Santos, Tillman, Guerra, Feliz.

Unlike with the hitters, distance from the majors does have an impact on whether or not these guys get selected. Porcello is a shocking pick in this context. Tillman, Guerra, and Feliz probably have higher ceilings than Adenhart, but it's understandable why Roto teams shy away from guys who are 2-3 years away from the bigs...assuming they stay healthy.

1 comment:

Eugene Freedman said...

Repeat after me, "There's no such thing as a pitching prospect."

TNSTAAPP!!!

Don't pay for them.