Top 10 A.L. Pitcher Prospects - John Sickels
| Rank | Player | $ | CBS | LABR | TW | AP | Level |
| 1 | Clay Buchholz | -$14 | $11 | $11 | $15 | $12 | ML |
| 2 | Joba Chamberlain | $12 | $11 | $15 | $13 | $9 | ML |
| 3 | David Price | $3 | $1 | R-1 | R-1 | R5 | ML |
| 4 | Jake McGee | R-2 | R-4 | AA | |||
| 5 | Wade Davis | R-4 | R-6 | AAA | |||
| 6 | Ian Kennedy | -$12 | $5 | $7 | $9 | $8 | ML |
| 7 | Gio Gonzalez | -$7 | $1 | $1 | $2 | R1 | ML |
| 8 | Eric Hurley | -$1 | R-2 | R-4 | ML | ||
| 9 | Fautino De Los Santos | A | |||||
| 10 | Chris Tillman | AA | |||||
| average | -$2 | $3 | $3 | $4 | $3 |
From that perspective, the big names here were Buchholz, Chamberlain, and Kennedy. Price and Gonzalez were guys the market was taking a flier on; even at $2, Gonzalez's eventual owner knew there was a good chance that Gio would never grace his roster.
Unlike in the N.L., this was a thin group in terms of major league potential/impact for 2008. Perhaps Baseball America's list will have more pitchers who were closer to the majors last spring.
Top 10 A.L. Pitcher Prospects - Baseball America
| Rank | Player | $ | CBS | LABR | TW | AP | Level |
| 1 | Joba Chamberlain | $12 | $11 | $15 | $13 | $9 | ML |
| 2 | Clay Buchholz | -$14 | $11 | $11 | $15 | $12 | ML |
| 3 | David Price | $3 | $1 | R-1 | R-1 | R5 | ML |
| 4 | Jake McGee | R-2 | R-4 | AA | |||
| 5 | Wade Davis | R-4 | R-6 | AAA | |||
| 6 | Rick Porcello | A | |||||
| 7 | Nick Adenhart | -$5 | R-5 | R-1 | R-1 | R2 | ML |
| 8 | Gio Gonzalez | -$7 | $1 | $1 | $2 | R1 | ML |
| 9 | Adam Miller | $1 | $2 | R-3 | R1 | AAA | |
| 10 | Deolis Guerra | A | |||||
| average | -$1 | $3 | $3 | $3 | $2 |
Nope. Without Kennedy, the Baseball America list has even fewer potential impact guys listed.
Maybe I've been following Sickels for too long, but Adenhart and Miller feel like odd choices. They especially feel like odd choices for Baseball America, given their general love for younger prospects who haven't disappointed them - or us - yet.
Miller does draw some bids from Sportsline and Tout Wars, while Adenhart is treated as well as Price is in the reserve draft. That makes some sense. The touts aren't looking at what people will think of their picks 10 years from now; they want to win this year. If Ervin Santana or Joe Saunders had fallen flat (as some expected), then Adenhart might have logged significant innings in the rotation. If Cliff Lee had burned out completely - which would have surprised no one - Miller might have gotten a shot.
Once again, it's the similarities from list to list to list that are striking.
Top 10 A.L. Pitcher Prospects - Baseball Prospectus
| Rank | Player | $ | CBS | LABR | TW | AP | Level |
| 1 | Clay Buchholz | -$14 | $11 | $11 | $15 | $12 | ML |
| 2 | Joba Chamberlain | $12 | $11 | $15 | $13 | $9 | ML |
| 3 | David Price | $3 | $1 | R-1 | R-1 | R5 | ML |
| 4 | Rick Porcello | A | |||||
| 5 | Wade Davis | R-4 | R-6 | AAA | |||
| 6 | Nick Adenhart | -$5 | R-5 | R-1 | R-1 | R2 | ML |
| 7 | Neftali Feliz | AA | |||||
| 8 | Ian Kennedy | -$12 | $5 | $7 | $9 | $8 | ML |
| 9 | Jake McGee | R-2 | R-4 | AA | |||
| 10 | Chris Tillman | AA | |||||
| average | -$2 | $3 | $3 | $4 | $3 |
Feliz is the only pitcher here who isn't on either the Sickels or the BA list (great call by the Prospectus folks).
Looking once again at serious money leagues, this is how my regular A.L. saw it:
Frozen: Buchholz $15, Chamberlain $12.
Auction: Kennedy $11.
Farm 2008: Price, G. Gonzalez, McGee, Porcello
Farm 2007 or earlier: Adenhart, Miller
Not Drafted: Davis, Hurley, De Los Santos, Tillman, Guerra, Feliz.
Unlike with the hitters, distance from the majors does have an impact on whether or not these guys get selected. Porcello is a shocking pick in this context. Tillman, Guerra, and Feliz probably have higher ceilings than Adenhart, but it's understandable why Roto teams shy away from guys who are 2-3 years away from the bigs...assuming they stay healthy.
1 comment:
Repeat after me, "There's no such thing as a pitching prospect."
TNSTAAPP!!!
Don't pay for them.
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