Friday, January 16, 2009

Price Differences: Expert Leagues

During my position-by-position recaps of 2008, I promised I'd look back at the three different expert leagues and the differences in prices.

Top Hitter Salaries, 2008 A.L.Tout Wars
#
Hitter
TWLABR
CBS
$08
1Alex Rodriguez
$45$42
$54
$38
2Carl Crawford
$40$42
$40
$21
3Miguel Cabrera
$39$42
$46
$33
4Ichiro Suzuki
$34$38
$30
$35
5Grady Sizemore
$32$37
$37
$40
6David Ortiz
$32$34
$35
$19
7B.J. Upton
$30$31
$37
$31
8Vladimir Guerrero
$30$32
$36
$28
9Alex Rios
$29$29
$35
$33
10Nick Markakis
$29$29
$31
$28

Average
$34$36$38
$31

By far, the most aggressive price enforcing of the superstars took place in the CBS Sportsline expert league. When A-Rod, Cabrera, Upton, Guerrero, and Rios all go for $4 or more than they do in the other two more established expert leagues, you tend to sit up and take notice.

In fact, Crawford and Suzuki are the only players on this list where Sportsline doesn't have the highest bid. Speed is the one thing that the Sportsline league doesn't seem to want to pay for.

The other thing that jumps off of this chart is that LABR and Tout Wars rank the same players in the same order. LABR hangs back on A-Rod but then jumps in with both feet, paying $42 for three-category Cabrera and going comparatively crazy for their top five hitters before scaling back starting with Big Papi.

At $31 per player, this is still a great group of hitters in terms of earnings. The difference, though, is in the average salary in each league.

At $34 per player, Tout Wars is taking a loss, but still getting back 91 cents on the dollar. Sportsline, meanwhile, is only getting 82 cents on the dollar and taking a $7 per player loss.

Top Hitter Salaries, 2008 N.L.Tout Wars
#
HitterTWLABR
CBS
$08
1Jose Reyes
$44$42
$53
$42
2David Wright
$42$45
$43
$38
3Hanley Ramirez
$40$39
$44
$39
4Matt Holliday
$38$38
$40
$38
5Chase Utley
$37$36
$42
$33
6Jimmy Rollins
$36$36
$39
$31
7Ryan Howard
$36$36
$39
$30
8Ryan Braun
$36$35
$39
$33
9Prince Fielder
$35$38
$41
$26
10Mark Teixeira
$33$35
$37
$17

Average
$38$38$42
$33

Despite (mostly) different owner pools, it's the same story in the National League as well. The Tout Warriors and LABR pay a hefty sum for these studs, but they just can't keep up with the Sportsline crew.

Alex Patton has said it over and over - and I've parroted it over and over - you're almost always going to lose money on the 10 best expected of anything. Once again, though, Sportsline is going out on a bigger limb and taking a bigger loss.

The assumption I'd make is that pitchers cost less in Sportsline and more in the other expert leagues.

Top Pitcher Salaries, 2008 A.L.Tout Wars
#
PitcherTWLABR
CBS
$08
1Erik Bedard
$33$30
$27
$7
2CC Sabathia
$31$28
$26
$10
3Justin Verlander
$29$26
$28
$2
4Joe Nathan
$27$27
$22
$40
5Jon Papelbon
$26$27
$28
$41
6Josh Beckett
$26$27
$26
$17
7J.J Putz
$26$27
$25
$12
8Mariano Rivera
$25$24
$22
$48
9Felix Hernandez
$23$24
$25
$12
10Francisco Rodriguez
$23$24
$24
$47

Average
$27$26$25
$24

Yep.

Including both hitters and pitchers, $14 separate Sportsline and LABR, while there is a $25 gap between Sportsline and Tout.

And once again, there's little variability between expert leagues in terms of the pecking order. Verlander's the only pitcher ranked differently by LABR than Tout. There are some differences in Sportsline (they're hot on Verlander and Papelbon and cool on Nathan and Mo), but the similarities are more striking than the differences.

So the pecking order is pretty much the same on the top players. The only argument that seems to be left is how much to spend on these guys.

Top Pitcher Salaries, 2008 N.L.Tout Wars
#
PitcherTWLABR
CBS
$08
1Johan Santana
$40$36
$44
$37
2Jake Peavy
$30$31
$39
$24
3Brandon Webb
$26$30
$31
$33
4Cole Hamels
$24$23
$27
$33
5Roy Oswalt
$23$22
$26
$27
6Dan Haren
$22$25
$29
$30
7Takashi Saito
$22$22
$21
$20
8Billy Wagner
$21$22
$23
$25
9Rich Hill
$21$18
$17
$0
10Ian Snell
$21$17
$12
-$16

Average
$25$25$27
$21

Except the Sportsline gang keeps going and going and going in the N.L. They don't hang back on pitchers. Even with Ian Snell - Sportsline's 34th favorite pitcher - included on this list, they still outspend the other expert leagues in pitching AND hitting. For these 20 National Leaguers listed, they outspend LABR by $60 on these players and Tout Wars by $59.

Keep in mind that these sorts focus on the 40 most expensive players in the Tout Wars auctions, not the Sportsline auctions. Adding Alfonso Soriano ($40 in CBS), Carlos Zambrano ($25), Chris Young ($22), and John Smoltz ($22) would have only widened the gap.

Also keep this in mind when expert league prices start trickling out this winter. I suspect the same thing will happen in 2009. The player rankings will likely be similar, but the dollar values will probably be quite different from league to league.

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