Wednesday, January 28, 2009

Carlos Beltran (in a 6x6)

Anonymous asks:
I've got Beltran as a potential freeze in my NL-only at $35. But my league is a 12-team 6X6 that counts D+T and SB-CS as categories. Is he too expensive?
If anonymous' league has any kind of inflation whatsoever, then no, he's well worth the price. Even at a conservative $32 bid limit, Beltran's inflation price would run at $35 at 10% and $38 at 20%. I don't know which top-tier players in your league are going to be available, but unless most of them are, I suspect your league will chase Beltran to at least $40 if you throw him back. Keep him.

As far as valuation goes, I've never sat down and seriously tried to figure out 6x6 values. But I can eyeball the Rototimes Player Rater and intuit whether or not Beltran's value would go up, come down, or stay roughly the same.

In 4x4, Rototimes says Beltran was worth $36 last year. That matches what Alex Patton says he was worth in 2008 and is $1 more than I say Beltran was worth (using my denominators within Patton's formulas). So the Rototimes number is pretty accurate.

In Rototimes' 5x5 formula, Beltran was worth $36. In their 6x6 formula (using your categories), he was worth $36.

So Beltran holds his value well between all three formats.

One key seems to be AB/plate appearances in the 5x5 and 6x6 formats. Albert Pujols drops from $49 in Rototimes' 4x4 formula to $43 in 5x5 to $40 in 6x6. Chipper Jones drops from $35 to $31 to $27.

Obviously, being fast helps in your 6x6 format. Jose Reyes drops from $43 to $40 from 4x4 to 5x5 but actually rallies slightly in your 6x6, ticking up to $41.

Keep in mind that the more categories you have, the more the playing field is leveled for the top players. But the players who contribute across the board in all five or six categories will do a better job of holding their value, and therefore are worth hanging on to at prices comparable to the 4x4 or 5x5 prices you'll see in magazines and web sites as we ramp up for Opening Day.

2 comments:

Anonymous said...

Thanks!

Robert said...

Sorry to monopolize this post with such a long question, but I have a question on “tweeners,” the guys who you don’t really want to throw back into the auction pool because their current prices *might* be a little better than their auction-day costs.

In my circumstance, I’m in a 12-team, NL-only with a $271 cap (it’s a 6X6, and we count holds). I can keep up to 10 players whose total cost cannot exceed $100.

I don’t have any real steal value with my hitters (except for Corey Hart at $5). I have Beltran at $36, Aramis Ramirez at $32 and McCann at $25. Still, my pitchers are fairly intriguing, but I hate that such a volatile position might be my only hope going into the auction.

I have:
Haren at $31
Lowe at $20
Lilly at $17
Parra at $10
Lindstrom at $7
Maholm at $5
Josh Johnson at $3

I think Johnson, Lindstrom and Maholm are no-doubters at their prices. It’s Haren, Lilly, Lowe and Parra who confuse me. I could easily get those four prices at the auction in my league, but do I take that risk? Do I get rid of some and keep others? I have no idea on inflation yet, but Greg Maddux went for $15 last season. Lowe, obviously, went for $20.