Tuesday, September 09, 2008

Gauging the Impact of Free Agent Pitchers

hdarvick takes issue with my assessment that Nelson Figueroa's value is "virtually nil."

Rather than embark on what I'm sure what be a scintillating discussion about Nelson Figueroa, I thought I'd look at pitchers FAABed last year in September and what they contributed.


LIBL (N.L.) FAABed Pitchers in September 2007
PlayerFAAB
$ in
Sept.
$
AP
2006
Esteban Loiaza
$21
-$6-$2
$4
Steve Trachsel
$11-$4


-$7

$1
Matt Albers
$1-$7-$10

-$2
Carlos Villanueva
$1
$5
$9

$7
Kevin Correia
$1
$4
$7

$6
Joel Pineiro
$1
$2
$5

-$16
Brian Fuentes
$13
$5$21
$20
$27
Adam Wainwright
$6
$4
$14
$12
$11
Chad Qualls
$2
$1
$13
$2
$12
Sean Marshall
$2
-$1
$7

-$6
Tom Shearn
$2
$0
$1


Jonathan Sanchez
$1
-$4
-$6
$1
$0
Russ Springer
$1
$6
$19

$7
Troy Percival
$1
$4
$11


Jared Burton
$6
$2
$8


Derrick Turnbow
$1
-$2
$3
$2
$8
Average$4
$1
$6
$2
$4

Sixteen pitchers were FAABed in the Long Island Baseball League last September. Most of them were actually relievers, and that's where a good deal of the value came from.

Russ Springer earned $6 as a reliever in September??? Percival earned $4?

I know these guys were good last year, but they were this good? Really?

Sure they were. 13 2/3 IP, eight baserunners, one earned run. If you knew you could pick up those stats from Russ Springer on August 31, you surely would have taken the FAAB plunge.

Applying some of this back to Nelson Figueroa, the best plays we make for pitchers are generally for strong middle relievers and starting pitchers. Even starting pitchers took it in the chin in the FAAB wars; only Adam Wainwright (who probably shouldn't have been dropped by his owner in the first place) stands out. Middle relief is where it's at.

This could be why hdarvick took me behind the woodshed. It's not that Figueroa is going to be worth a lot. In many leagues, though, he's the best you're going to get. A shot at cheap wins on a good team, a chance to put up a lot of good innings, and therefore a better play than Josh Fogg: a borderline starting pitcher who is more valuable to major league teams than to Rotisserie squads.

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