Can you name some NL prospects who could be used in deals?Predicting what the marketplace will look like later this month is next to impossible. I could say that the Rich Harden trade is a sign that top prospects won't get dealt, but one trade isn't necessarily an omen of the next batch of trades. Frankly, I was surprised last year that the Braves gave up so much swag for Mark Teixeira, even though Teixeira was admittedly a potential stud. Still, the Braves dealt some highly rated prospects for him. Entering the 2007 season, John Sickels had Elvis Andrus rated as a B+ player, Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Matt Harrison as B prospects, and Neftali Feliz as a C+ (Feliz had probably moved up a few notches prior to the trade). The fact that Teixeira wasn't an impending free agent at the end of the 2007 season had a lot to do with the embarrassment of riches the Rangers picked up, but it still seemed to me like the Braves hit the jackpot.
Tonight, I'll take a look at some of the contenders in the N.L., some of their top prospects, and the odds of them being moved in a deal.
St. Louis Cardinals
Top 5 Prospects Pre-Season: Colby Rasmus OF, Chris Perez RHP, Jaime Garcia LHP, Adam Ottavino RHP, Brian Anderson C.
The Cardinals already have the #2 and #3 guys on these list in the majors plugging holes in their bullpen. Tony LaRussa has made some noise about wanting to make a big move to respond to the Brewers and Cubs big trades, but it sounds like the Cardinals front office would rather do something smaller and use some of their minor leaguers to plug the holes they have (thus the call-ups of Perez and Garcia. Anderson's the only guy on this list who has been tied to any rumors, due to the presence of Yadier Molina. He could go, but I think the Cards will move some lesser prospects in smaller deals, instead of selling the farm to try and grab a bigger name.
Philadelphia Phillies
Top 5 Prospects Pre-Season: Carlos Carrasco RHP, Adrian Cardenas 2B, Josh Outman LHP, Joe Savery LHP, Kyle Drabek RHP.
The Phillies are desperate for a starter, yet refused to include Carrasco in any potential C.C. Sabathia deal. He's probably not going anywhere. The Jays have been scouting a number of players, including Carrasco, OF Greg Golson, and C Lou Marson. I could see the Phils trading Golson and some lesser prospects for Burnett. Marson's stock has risen since the off-season and Carlos Ruiz and Chris Coste aren't exactly long-term solutions behind the dish. Outman, Savery and Drabek aren't mentioned as much in current rumors, Drabek primarily due to his continued ailments. Cardenas also seems untouchable, even though he's not exactly going to supplant that guy the Phils currently have at 2B. The Phils like him a lot, and would rather move him to another position than give him away. I do think the Phils are going to aggressively pursue a deal, and I think Erik Bedard will wind up moving to Philadelphia for Carrasco and some lesser names. Pat Gillick seems desperate to make a deal, and this is his last year as GM in Philly.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Top 5 Prospects Pre-Season: Jarrod Parker RHP, Max Scherzer RHP, Geraldo Parra OF, Billy Buckner RHP, Wes Roemer RHP.
The Diamondbacks gave up many of their premier prospects in the Dan Haren deal this winter, so a major deal seems unlikely. They seem to be targeting component players like Casey Blake rather than a big bat like Adam Dunn, so the prospect or prospects that get moved will probably be lesser lights who could be in the Diamondbacks Top 20 or might just be filler players who will get moved so the seller can shed some salary and pay little or nothing in dollars.
Milwaukee Brewers
Top 5 Prospects Pre-Season: Matt LaPorta OF, Manny Parra LHP, Mat Gamel 3B, Jeremy Jeffress RHP, Jonathan Lucroy C.
If you listened to Doug Melvin's press conference after the Sabathia trade, you know that the Brewers are probably done making any major moves. Parting with LaPorta for a two month rental stung a little bit, particularly for a team that has succeeded primarily through scouting and developing most of the talent that's on the field. It was the right move, but I don't see the Brewers making another big move going forward. Parra and Gamel, in particular, aren't going anywhere.
L.A. Dodgers
Top 5 Prospects Pre-Season: Clayton Kershaw, LHP, Andy LaRoche, 3B, James McDonald, RHP, Chin-Lung Hu, SS, Jonathan Meloan, RHP.
Ken Rosenthal grumbles that the Dodgers are an impossible trading partner. One problem with Rosenthal's article is that the Dodgers, in fact, have a thin system, with many of the players on Sickels' last already wearing a major league uniform. I don't blame them for not wanting to trade Kershaw, and a lot of the other names on this list already look suspect (LaRoche) or would be much further down the list on a lot of other teams (Hu). The Dodgers apparently did discuss dealing either Meloan or McDonald for Sabathia, so I think Rosenthal's concerns are extremely overblown. I'm not sure the Dodgers will do anything, but I'd agree that McDonald or Meloan could get moved in a deal down the line.
Florida Marlins
Top 5 Prospects Pre-Season: Cameron Maybin, OF, Ryan Tucker, RHP, Aaron Thompson, Chris Volstad, Gaby Hernandez.
I think we all know the Marlins M.O. by now. They unload major league peak players when they start getting too expensive, build up their farm system in a most impressive manner, and grab a World Series ring four years later the way Joe Sixpack grabs a Big Mac at the McDonalds drive thru. I can't see the Marlins making a big deal of any kind this year, even if they were just 1 1/2 games out of the N.L. East lead entering today. Even more so than the Cardinals, they're in a rebuilding mode, even if success has come a little earlier than they might have expected.
New York Mets
Top 5 Prospects Pre-Season: Fernando Martinez, OF, Jon Niese, LHP, Eddie Kunz, RHP, Brant Rustich, RHP, Joe Smith, RHP.
The Mets big acquisition was the Johan Santana blockbuster they pulled off this winter. They dealt their #2, #3, #4, and #7 prospects to get him, and their already-thin system is now wafer-thin. The Mets are hoping to trade lesser prospects and eat some salary in a deal for a player like Jason Bay or Adam Dunn, but I say good luck with that in this market. Like the Diamondbacks, I don't see the Mets as major players in this market, and think they'll try to make some smaller deals down the line. Martinez is probably untouchable; there isn't a player left on the market that makes trading him worth it. Then again, this is the organization that dealt Scott Kazmir for Victor Zambrano.
Chicago Cubs
Top 5 Prospects Pre-Season: Josh Vitters, 3B, Geovany Soto, C, Sean Gallagher, RHP, Eric Patterson, 2B-OF, Tyler Colvin, OF
For all of the bashing I've seen of Billy Beane for not getting back a top prospect in the Rich Harden deal, he did snag the Cubs #3 and #4 prospects. That isn't to say he couldn't have done better, but Gallagher and Patterson are both more highly regarded than some people think.
Getting back to the Cubs trading possibilities, I think they'd move Vitters or Colvin if they thought it would help them win, but they probably don't have that many major needs at this point. Brian Roberts was linked to them in the off-season, but it doesn't sound like the Orioles are inclined to move Roberts right now.
Atlanta Braves
Top 5 Prospects Pre-Season: Jason Heyward, OF, Jordan Schafer, OF, Brandon Jones, OF, Tommy Hanson, RHP, Brent Lillibridge, SS.
The aforementioned Teixeira trade thinned out the Braves system, and flipping Joey Devine for Mark Kotsay certainly didn't help. The Kotsay trade should be a clue that the Braves aren't afraid of flipping a highly regarded prospect for a component piece like Kotsay.
But the Braves seem to be in that borderline position of not knowing if they should go for it or throw in the towel. The fact that the linked article mentions Lillibridge - a guy who is starting to look like a failed prospect - as bait tells me that the Braves will be looking to move lesser names or they will do nothing. The same applies the other way. Unless they get a haul for Teixeira that's even close to the names they gave up for him last year, I'd imagine they'll stand pat and use their two compensatory draft picks they'll get this offseason for losing him.
2 comments:
I do credit Rosenthal's analysis of the Dodgers more than you do, though maybe for different reasons. It seems to me that there is a serious divide between White and Coletti, and that McCourt can't commit one way or the other. Not giving LaRoche a real shot -- but not trading him either -- makes me think they really don't have a coherent plan. Until they do one or the other -- play him full-time to see what he can do, or trade him (at the admittedly lower price that's due to their dicking around with him) -- they're hosed. They're the rotisserie team that's just out of the money, because they can't pull the trigger on either a dump trade or a trade that would give them a short-term boost for first place this year. I tend to blame Coletti -- it fits his pattern with the Giants, always overestimating his this-year chances.
Great points as always, Mike. I'd agree that the Dodgers are an organization in flux that doesn't seem to know if they want to rebuild or go for it. However, I do think they'd be willing to trade their prospects in the right deal. It does seem that teams are more likely to ask the Dodgers for young major leaguers like Matt Kemp than they are of other organizations. I can see why this would give L.A. pause when a team like the Brewers only had to give up a AA prospect like Harrison while everyone's asking L.A. about Kemp. The Brewers don't have to replace Harrison in their current line-up, whereas the Dodgers would lose something on their current roster if they moved Kemp. And I like Harrison, but Kershaw's a better prospect than Harrison and, again, I could see why the Dodgers would be reluctant to move him.
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