Wednesday, June 18, 2008

Why Did I Keep Him Again?

An earlier comment by Rodger got me thinking about some of the bigger disappointments to date, particularly freezes. Tonight, I'll examine a few hitters in the A.L.

Billy Butler. Frozen at $10 in my A.L.
Everyone was expecting big things from Butler this year...just not at Triple-A. His OBP actually wasn't that far off from last year's .347, but his power completely disappeared and the Royals sent him down to the minors on May 29. Butler could still come back and replace Ross Gload at 1B, but teams that froze Butler did so with the idea of dumping him mid-year. That's a hard sell right now, particularly since he's due a contract next year or has to be optioned.

Robinson Cano. Freeze Price: $17.
What's wrong with Cano? Yankee fans I talk to seem to have a lot of answers, but few if any make sense. I'm told he's swinging at everything, but he's never been a patient hitter in the past and is actually on pace to walk only seven fewer times than he did last year. Cano's a guy who people thought was going to break out and his 25-30 HR this year, but he's going to be lucky to get to 15.

Victor Martinez. Freeze Price: $26.
The Indians kept blaming his problems on a bum hamstring, but it turns out (unsurprisingly) that it was his elbow that has been bothering him all along. If Martinez had lost some BA and hit a few HR, I think his owners could have swallowed that, but a homerless Martinez is not an outcome I think any of his owners were expecting from one of the best catchers in Roto over the last few years.

Nick Swisher. Freeze Price: $23.
I thought this price was high for Swisher, but I think a lot of his supporters thought moving to Chicago and its hitter-friendly venue was going to turn Swisher into a 30-35 HR monster, even with a low BA. Swisher has picked it up as of late, but still looks like he's going to hit 15-20 HR with a low BA. He could turn it around, but I wouldn't bet on it.

Mark Teahen. Freeze Price: $12.
Teahen hasn't been a complete washout, but I think owners who froze him at or around this price were secretly hoping for a return to his 2006 form. He's picked it up a little in the power department this month, with 3 HR, but his numbers on the whole are going to leave teams holding the bag on Teahen or trading him for less than anticipated when teams out of the running come a' calling. One of the worst things about Teahen's year is that he isn't running that much this year; a large part of his value is wrapped up in SB when he's hitting at this poor level.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

I froze Corpas and let Fuenetes go in a trade prior to the draft. Ugh...