Saturday, June 21, 2008

Why Did I Keep Him Again?: N.L. Hitters

Carlos Beltran. Frozen at $40.
The Rototimes Player Rater ranks Beltran 18th overall, so is he a disappointment? It's debatable, but I'd say yes for a couple of reasons.

First, when you freeze a player at a high price like this, you're expecting par or close to par value. Beltran's "only" earned $29; even with 30-35%, he's not even a par player with inflation. Second, Beltran has 10 HR to date. That's not terrible, but an owner who froze him at this price surely was expecting 15-17 HR by now. Beltran could still pick it up, but if you froze him at this price and he's not a Top 10 player, you're probably a middle of the pack team. At best.

Carlos Ruiz. Frozen at $2.
At $2, Ruiz can't be tabbed a huge disappointment. However, players like this are guys who want profit from. Ruiz earned $9 last year, and I'm sure owners who froze him on the cheap were expecting a similar return. His owner could have saved $1 and filled in with a minimal $1 catcher who wouldn't have hurt his average. Ruiz owners also might have lost one of those second-tier dump chips who are useful as we close in on the deadline.

Freddy Sanchez. Frozen at $6.
The problem with players who have so much value wrapped up in their batting averages is that when they crash and burn they really crash and burn. The naysayers always said that a low walk guy like Sanchez couldn't sustain his BA and were proven wrong year after year after year. Even in a bad year, Sanchez's owners had to be hoping for a $15 season from him. It's still possible, but getting par stats from a $6 freeze doesn't punch your first place ticket.

Chris Young. Frozen at $15.
For those in non-freeze leagues, Young isn't a disappointment. However, in freeze leagues, what you're hoping for when you commit to a long-term contract with a guy like Young is development. His batting average stings and he isn't running as much this year. If I were dumping in a National League, that would move Young down my list of possible targets. And that's part of the reason you give guys like Young a contract: to turn them into dump chips down the line.

Andre Ethier. Frozen at $5.
Again, Ethier's a bargain at $5. But the breakout we look for from freezes hasn't come, and profits are as important from these players as production. There's been a lot of pissing and moaning all year about how Juan Pierre is keeping these guys from playing, but with 250+ plate appearances, you can't make that excuse for Ethier. If you're contending and you own him, you need to look for an upgrade.

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