Tuesday, May 13, 2008

Pinch Hitting for Isringhausen...

Like a lot of Rotoheads, TJ wants to know what's going on in the St. Louis bullpen.
What's your thinking about Ryan Franklin in the STL bullpen? According to LaRussa, Franklin seems the most likely candidate, with (Russ) Springer backing him up. But Kyle McClellan has the best numbers.
In the short-term, I have to assume that Franklin has the upper hand for saves in the St. Louis bullpen. LaRussa trusts Franklin based on his strong performance last year, Russ Springer has been awful, and I'm having a hard time picturing Randy Flores defying history and putting up a .229 BAA all season long.

There's a really good piece at Viva El Birdos about Jason Isringhausen. Though the author of the article doesn't have any good answers about what might be wrong with Izzy, he suspects that the move won't last long, since LaRussa likes predictability, and would have picked a closer if he believed that Isringhausen was going to be out for a long period of time. I can buy that rationale, but I think the two most important factors to Izzy getting back on the horse pretty quickly are:

1) he's making $8M this year, and
2) the in-house options for replacing him aren't great.

Franklin's stuff might be better suited to the bullpen than to the rotation, but I somehow doubt that he's as good as his ERA has been since coming to St. Louis in 2007. One of the keys to his moderate success in '07 was the fact that he didn't walk anyone. So far this year, his BB/IP is more in line with his career norms. If he keeps that up, and he gives up the inevitable dingers, he'll be a dangerous option.

McClellan's numbers are great. Of the pitchers on the major league roster, his stats have probably earned him a shot at closing, and he seems to know what he's doing out there. However, that's probably not the way it's going to work. LaRussa's going to stick with the veterans making $2M+ unless they both stink up the joint. Despite Franklin's lousy peripherals, his vanity numbers (ERA/WHIP) are fine.

Chris Perez is the guy that a lot of the statheads and the more knowledgeable Cards fans are hyped up on, and with good reason. The 22-year old is holding his own at Triple-A Memphis (although the BB/IP are a little high), and he probably fits the hard throwing closer profile more than McClellan or any of the AARP vets on the staff do. Keep in mind that Perez isn't a sure thing. Baseball America barely had him in their Top 100 (97), and John Sickels "only" rated him as a Grade B prospect. That's still quite excellent, but it doesn't put Perez in the sure thing category.

If I had to predict what will happen, I'd say that Izzy gets another crack at closing games near the end of this month. In the meantime, I'd say Franklin probably gets most of the save chances, with the hot hand behind him getting the odd chance if LaRussa doesn't want to use Franklin on consecutive days. If Franklin's wheels come off, I think it's anyone's ballgame, including McClellan's.

No comments: