Grizzled (Minor League) Vets

Somebody out there really likes Kory Casto.

I've followed Casto's minor league carrer a little and it's surprising to see a twice Minor league MVP'er and the guy Washington considers a real hitting prospect (look at his BA's in the past) listed as one of the 10 worst hitters. I thought it worth mentioning that he wasn't up for very long, and they played him sporadically. We may want to pay attention to what he does this year, as it's likely he'll go up again before the Nat's can't option him anymore. If his past BA's (.286 .290 .272) indicate what he can do we'll see him contributing.

First off, I should point out that he was only one of the worst hitters in 2007 based on his major league stats. The table I published didn't take into account Casto's MLE, his potential down the road, or any other factors. I simply listed him based on his 2007 statistics.

Regarding Casto himself, he still has a chance to contribute in the major leagues. At 26, though, his window of opportunity won't last long. He's only had one truly stellar season, at High-A ball at age 23. His OPS dropped in the following two seasons, and his 718 OPS at AAA Harrisburg wouldn't cut it in the majors at a corner outfield slot, even if you didn't adjust for MLE. His overall minor league numbers have the whiff of a guy who may or may not make it.

I've often considered the Age 26 season in the minors the beginning of the end. Beyond that point, players get labeled as minor league lifers, if they haven't already been labeled that. Of course, a few of these guys defy the odds and make an impact in the majors as rookies in their late 20s. We remember these players, though, because they're making such a late splash.

Glancing at a few minor league rosters, we're reminded that more prospects fail than succeed. The Nationals' AAA Columbus affiliate features Alex Escobar, a one-time toolsy prospect who kept getting hurt. At 29, his window is most likely gone. Larry Broadway was also once considered a Top 50 hitting prospect by John Sickels, but at the age of 27 his odds are likely poor to make the majors even in a limited role, let alone a starting gig.

I always think about Graham Koonce when I think about good players who maybe should have gotten a shot but didn't. Koonce was drafted out of a California high school by the Tigers and struggled for three years before getting cut. He played two years of independent ball before latching on with the Padres. From 2000-2003, Koonce never put up an OPS lower than 873. True, he was 28 years old in 2003, but many touts thought that Koonce could have put up a 20 HR season with a low BA and decent OBP as a major league first baseman.

Of course, we all know it didn't work out that way. Koonce got a cup of coffee for the A's at the end of 2003, got all of eight AB, and wound up back in the minors in 2004. He played for the Royals and Braves AAA affiliates last year, but I think he might have finally hung them up this season.

This isn't a knock on Koonce, obviously. It's just a reality that players past a certain age probably aren't going to make it, even in a progressive organization like the A's run. If you're peaking in the minors, chances are you're not going to suddenly become a better hitter in the Show.

I write all this because I generally start removing names like Casto's from my mental database after a while. He'll still be there this year but - at some point - I'll start thinking of him as a AAA lifer, and move my attention to the next crop of futures.