Gauging Future Value Now

I mentioned in a post this weekend that one owner in a CBS Sportsline league traded Alfonso Soriano straight up for Max Scherzer.

As Rodger tells us, these types of offers aren't as uncommon as you might think:

I had an offer like that Soriano trade you mentioned. One week after Evan Longoria entered the AL, someone offered him for Nick Swisher straight up.

That might be fair, but the balance of risk seemed one-sided.

I would have taken Longoria for Swisher, but not because I necessarily believe that Longoria is going to have a better year than Swisher (though, in 4x4 BA leagues, it might actually be close).

In a typical dump league, you should be able to deal a Longoria for someone like Swisher and a second player who is at least as good at Swisher. In my league, that wouldn't even be enough. I'd want two top-tier players, like Alex Rodriguez and Manny Ramirez, for Longoria. Depending on my odds of winning, I might want even more. Assuming Longoria works out like I think he will, I'm giving up four years of Longoria after this year (assuming a three year long-term contract given out in March 2010 takes him through 2012). I better win.

For the guy getting Longoria, the assumption is that he'll be able to spend the $75-80 he has locked into Manny and A-Rod into similar players, plus have Longoria as a neat little bargain next year. He'll also have a substantial dump chip for his run at first place in 2009. Of course it could all go horribly wrong and Longoria could tank, but having Manny and A-Rod at market value (or, worse, market inflation value) heading into next year's auction isn't going to put him in the driver's seat.

I'll assume that Rodger doesn't play in a carryover league. In that case, the Longoria/Swisher offer is probably one I wouldn't take either, though it certainly is tempting. It's easy to think back to Ryan Braun and Hunter Pence last year and think about the jackpot you might hit with Longoria. However, those jackpots aren't always certain. The 2007 version of Alex Gordon is a better template to consider. Gordon struggled last year, and while there are no guarantees that Longoria will struggle in the same way, you have to at least keep the downside in mind when thinking about what a Longoria might do for your team. Don't just think about the good, in other words, think about the bad as well.

If you're a long shot in a non-carryover league though, you might roll the dice on Longoria, thinking that you'll need things to break just right for you to win. At this stage of his career, Nick Swisher isn't going to exceed expectations. Evan Longoria just might, though.