Justin Ruggiano

Tom writes:

i have granderson, and now floyd went down, so i took a shot at ruggiano for a buck. thoughts?

My first thought, of course, is that I feel bad for you about Curtis Granderson and Cliff Floyd.

Justin Ruggiano is one of those players who probably has a 10% chance of becoming a solid or even above average major league regular. He's got two strikes against him, though: he's always been old for his level in the minors and he was drafted (initially by the Dodgers) in the 25th round. I believe that there's always going to be a certain degree of bias against players like Ruggiano, who exceed the scouts' expectations and make them look bad.

With the exception of a poor half-season at AA Jacksonville in 2006, Ruggiano has always held his own in the minors. He hit a career high 20 HR at AAA Durham last year, so it's possible that he's growing into his power stroke. On the other hand, he also struck out 153 times last year; it's entirely possible that he was swinging for the fences. This approach might get you 20 HR and a .309 BA at AAA. In the majors, it could lead to 200 strikeouts.

If I sound tentative about Ruggiano, it's because I don't know a lot about him. John Sickels has consistently graded Ruggiano as a C+/B- prospect. These aren't the sort of guys I'm targeting with my two farm picks in my money A.L., and in my expert league, we can use our reserve picks on major leaguers or minor leaguers. This isn't a knock on Ruggiano, it's just that there are other players that fit his profile kicking around in the minors.

The biggest thing I think he has going against him is a lack of PT. Both Eric Hinske and Nathan Haynes are currently ahead of him in the pecking order. Of course, Hinske and Haynes aren't Rollins and Utley, so Ruggiano could be a slump or two away from regular PT. But that's hard to predict.