FAAB Supplemental: April 20, 2008

American League
Luke Hochevar: Today's outing is going to make it a little easier to either not bid or bid low on Luke Hochevar; the Royals will probably only ask for one more start, and they might even reconsider after the smackdown delivered by the A's today. Hochevar is one of the most enigmatic pitching prospects in baseball. He's got great raw stuff: a 92-95 MPH fastball, and a curve, slider, and change that John Sickels describes as plus pitches when they're all on. But, of course, there's the rub. Hochevar's stuff is rarely clicking like that, and the results so far have been predictably erratic. In today's game against the A's, for example, the scouting report was that Hochevar's fastball looked good, but that he had all sorts of trouble throwing his curveball for a strike. When the A's figured this out, they simply waited on the fastball. Granted, Hochevar was nickeled and dimed to death today, but this still isn't a good omen for when he winds up facing stronger line-ups.

Keep in mind, though, that Hochevar is still a kid in terms of experience. Hochevar was initially drafted as a supplemental first rounder by the Dodgers but held out, going to independent ball. The Royals signed him the following year. Despite all of that, Hochevar had only 190 minor league innings under his belt headed into this year. He sounds like someone who still hasn't completely learned how to pitch. The Royals should leave him down in AAA all year, but their organizational depth doesn't exactly lend itself to this scenario.

My bid on him is a very tepid $4. That won't get him, but I believe that he's going to get pounded if the Royals leave him up. Even if he rebounds in his next start against Toronto, I don't think he's a good bet for this year. If you really want Hochevar, I'd suggest going double digits. Jeff Niemann went for $15 and Greg Smith for $12 in LABR last week, and it's not out of the question that Hochevar will suck someone in at a similar price based on his potential alone.

National League
Matt Murton: By now, any one-league owner who doesn't know the story of Matt Murton has the same condition as the guy in Memento. Murton's a masher who the Cubs don't seem to like very much, so they keep jerking him around. The ultimate insult (to Roto owners) came when the Cubs called up Eric Patterson earlier this week instead of Murton. Perhaps realizing their error, they called up Murton later in the week. He started today in left field.

With all the chest pounding about Murton, it's important to remember that this isn't a young Barry Bonds being left to languish in the minors. Murton looks like a guy who would be a solid starting corner OF, with 15-20 HR pop and a decent batting average. In other words, not a guy who would necessarily be a starter on all 30 major league teams, but someone who could contribute something to most of them.

I don't know what to make of today's start. I suspect Murton is still going to sit at least half the time, so his value will be limited in the short-term. If you want him, you'll probably have to bid close to $10, but that might be pushing it given his slipping status. My bid stops at $3.