This post is for owners with no farm systems/reserve lists who will wind up bidding on these types of players in their leagues.
American League
Evan Longoria: Here he is, the best prospect in the American League, and maybe the best in the majors depending on how you feel about Jay Bruce. Willy Aybar's injury means immediate AB for Longoria, and you will have to bid aggressively if you want him. He could struggle for average in the early going, and does run the risk of getting sent down when Aybar comes back. That being said, the potential impact of 25 HR/15 SB can't be ignored, and the bids must be high, particularly in A.L.-only leagues. I'd bid $50. It's a lot, and it's risky, but you could get the same kind of impact here that you'd get from a July 31 trade, except for a full season rather than two months.
Francisco Liriano: Liriano is the pitching equivalent of Longoria: a guy who could have a huge impact if he stays in the Twins rotation all season long. He scuffled in his first outing, though, and you are taking a bigger risk than you are with Longoria due to health, not to mention the status of other Twins starters. With Minnesota going nowhere this year, they could send Liriano back to AAA if he struggles, though the fact that they brought him up over guys like Glen Perkins and Kevin Mulvey should tell you what the Twins plans are. I'd bid $35-40 for the same reason I'd bid so high on Longoria. It's a gamble, but you might not see a pitcher with this kind of potential impact all year long.
Jed Lowrie: I like him long-term, but it doesn't look like he'll supplant Julio Lugo or Sean Casey during this go-round in the majors...he's up for depth more than anything else. Keep in mind, too, that Lowrie is similar to Dustin Pedroia in that he's more of a true baseball prospect than a potential Roto stud. I'd bid $8 in a carryover league, $3-4 in leagues were you can't keep him. His real potential impact is in 2009.
National League
Sean Marshall: He's up in the majors, but in relief for now. I guess the Cubs are resigned to not trading for Brian Roberts, as Marshall certainly won't pump up any potential value in a major league bullpen. $3, since there are pitchers in most free agent pools with more impact, and Marshall might not see the rotation for some time, if at all this year.
6 comments:
Well, I had to bid before you posted...and bid $43 on Longoria and $8 on Lowrie. It is a 12 team AL carryover league -- and I desperately need an infielder.
I keep hoping that Alexei Ramirez will play 3 games at second, but the Sox mostly keep him on the bench and only play him in the outfield.
Having lost Garza, Duschscherer, and Slowey in my B league I was planning to bid crazy on Liriano until I saw the analysis of his motion and the reports of his pitch selection.
No mention of Niemann? BA had him as the #99 prospect in baseball.
Anyway, between you and Rodger, I'm now paranoid that I won't get Longoria, so I'm upping my bid there and I've bluffed enough on Liriano that someone will bid over $50.
I got Longoria for $51 with a next high bid of $47. Thanks for the advice to up my bid. I had Aybar in there for Rolen. The league allows freedom of transactions so I can replace anyone with an activated player- my DH is Marlon Byrd, so he will go if and when Rolen comes back healthy.
Liriano went for $74 with a next high bid of $51 and several in the $40s. I dropped my bid to $39.
Again, sorry about that rodger. A new job combined with a sick child didn't make for a good day. I'll start posting these types of plays earlier beginning next week.
See two posts below for Niemann.
I appreciate your efforts here, but I don't blame you for any timing issues. Your input is much appreciated, of course.
Unfortunately, Longoria went for $50 in my league so I didn't bid enough. I did get Lowrie for $8 -- so I'll be hoping that he turns some of his 50 doubles from 2007 into homers.
Hopefully someone from your league isn't reading these notes as well!
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