Tuesday, April 22, 2008

Middle Relievers-in-Waiting: N.L. Edition

UPDATE: It occurs to me that most of the relievers I've written about here aren't truly CIWs. Thus the title change.

Eric writes:
Acosta is the first of what should be 8-10 10+ Saves relievers to come from the free agent pool.
Eric is correct. Last year, 23 pitchers recorded eight saves or more in the National League last season. If you play in a 13 team N.L.-only league, and if form holds, there are about seven pitchers out there right now who aren't closers who will save at least eight games. In 2006, there were even more pitchers with 8+ saves, as 10 pitchers who weren't closers to start the year saved at least eight.

Identifying these guys is always the trick, though. Acosta wouldn't have sprung to mind as a closer candidate in mid-March and, indeed, went unbought in most leagues this spring.

Rather than discuss the set-up men who are likely owned in your league already, I thought I'd take a look at some of the middle relievers who are free agents in many leagues.

Arizona - Brandon Medders: Don't be fooled by the strong ERA/WHIP so far. Medders has a terrible K/IP to date, and won't keep it up if he allows this many baserunners. Chad Qualls and Tony Pena are both ahead of him on the depth chart for the D-backs, and Medders is a long shot in this pen.

Atlanta - Blaine Boyer: I like Boyer a little better than Acosta in terms of their numbers, and wouldn't be surprised if Boyer picked up a few saves in Soriano's absence. Like I said in my post yesterday, watch Acosta's walk totals. Major league managers generally won't put up with too many walks in the ninth inning unless you're unhittable.

Chicago - Mike Wuertz: Wuertz has always been a decent reliever who has put up respectable numbers, but has never been seriously considered a closer candidate. He'd have to jump over Carlos Marmol and Bobby Howry to get saves in Chicago, and the odds of that happening are next to nil.

Cincinnati - Jeremy Affeldt: Jared Burton is the Reds' set-up to Francisco Cordero, but he's owned in most deep leagues. Affeldt would be a good example of a sleeper candidate as a CIW: a guy who quietly put together a solid campaign for the Rockies last year after years of subpar numbers in Kansas City. He's a lefty, which is a minus, but he's put up great numbers so far, and has even kept the walks down. Burton's the obvious choice should something happen to Cordero, but Affeldt might be next after that.

Colorado - Taylor Buchholz: I'm always a sucker for pitchers who convert from the rotation to the pen, since they're only getting one look per game, can throw a little harder, and thus be more effective. Brian Fuentes is owned in many leagues, and there isn't an obvious choice in Colorado after him. Ryan Speier or Buchholz would be my next choices.

Florida - Taylor Tankersley: Most of his bad numbers came in one game against the Pirates early in the year. Matt Lindstrom's ahead of him, but Tankersley still is the same power pitcher who can blow the ball by people when he's on his game.

Houston - Geoff Geary: He could be the 2008 version of Kevin Gregg: a pitcher who was pitching above his head and happened to be in the right place at the right time. Geary won't keep whiffing a batter an inning, but is currently one of the better relievers in a thin Astros pen. I have more faith in Geary taking the job temporarily from Jose Valverde than Doug Brocail if Valverde continues to struggle.

Los Angeles - Scott Proctor: He's one of the few relievers in the L.A. pen who probably isn't owned. He's a middle reliever who won't get saves.

Milwaukee - Guillermo Mota: I mention Mota because it's likely that Eric Gagne's poor performance means that David Riske, Derrick Turnbow, and even Salomon Torres are owned in your league. Mota has struck out a batter an inning, but his performance has otherwise been pretty erratic. I'd guess that Riske gets first crack at the role if Gagne stumbles.

New York - Joe Smith: He's probably the best of the possibly unowned relievers in the Mets pen. Willie Randolph doesn't seem to be a fan, though, so I doubt Smith is worth a stab in the hopes of cheap saves.

Philadelphia - Ryan Madson: Probably one of the stronger FAAB plays you could make for a possible CIW. Brad Lidge seems to go through one shaky period per season, while Tom Gordon has looked at times this year like he's been on his last legs. Like Gordon, Madson's been up and down this year, but he has good stuff when he's on.

Pittsburgh - Franquelis Osoria: Osoria was likely owned in more than a few leagues at the start of the year and then waived after allowing 27 hits in 15 1/3 IP so far. He's more talented than that, but I don't blame owners for pulling the plug if they did. Osoria's got a bright long-term future but should be avoided for the time being.

San Diego - Cla Meredith: Meredith is only two years removed from a lights-out 2006 campaign. He still doesn't walk a lot of batters and should put up some good numbers again this year. Heath Bell is a huge obstacle in his way if Trevor Hoffman struggled or went down, but Meredith might get a cheap save or two if that did happen.

San Francisco - Tyler Walker: Brian Hennessey and Tyler Walker might both be free agents in your league. Brian Wilson's overall numbers are good so far, but he's been erratic from game to game. With Hennessey's incredibly poor start, Walker would be the guy to grab as the CIW.

Washington - Saul Rivera: Most of the Nationals relievers are probably out there in the free agent pool, but who do you want? Luis Ayala might be next in line after Rauch, but I'd probably go with Rivera if I had to pick someone. Jesus Colome throws smoke, but still can't stop walking guys. Rivera seems like a poor bet, but stranger things have happened.

1 comment:

Mark Kruger said...

Great Post! Just one week too late. If I would have read this last week, I would have picked up Burton but there are still a few guys out there I can look for. Thanks!! Keep up the great work