A.L. FAAB Log 4/14/08

Jeff Niemann $14. Other bid $1.
After Niemann went out today and dominated the - well, it was the Orioles - I expected some heavy bidding. However, I expected more bids than this. Matt Garza's injury sounds like the kind of nebulous injury that could leave him out for at least a month, and with Scott Kazmir also on the shelf, I think Niemann will have a few turns through the rotation for the Rays.

Entering this year, Niemann had thrown 239 minor league innings. He dominated through 2006, then hit a small wall at AAA, putting up good but not spectacular numbers. With the more heralded arms (Jake McGee, David Price, Wade Davis) racing through the system, Niemann has a limited window to prove himself. The former first round pick is 25 years old and probably has only this one shot to prove himself. Many think his future is in the pen. I think a $6-8 bid is probably a little more realistic, but he's definitely worth a flier if you need the arm.

Matt Tolbert $7.
He slots in as more of a utility player than a starter, but he's one of those scrappy players that Ron Gardenhire seems to like, and he is hitting. In the short term, expect him to take a few AB away from Brendan Harris and Adam Everett. Long term, don't expect much. He reminds me of Luis Hernandez, another guy who offered little Roto value but who Gardenhire seemed to love.

Ryan Rowland-Smith $3. Other bids $1, $1.
Rowland-Smith saved a game this week, which generated some minor enthusiasm. But Mark Lowe got a save later in the week, and the news on J.J. Putz today was encouraging, making me believe that Rowland-Smith doesn't have much short or long-term value. He's a solid middle reliever, and he could put up some OK innings. Just don't expect much more.

Masahide Kobayashi $3.
The Japanese import racked up 227 saves in Japan before the Indians grabbed him this winter. He's mentioned as a possible closer if the Indians wear out on Joe Borowski, but Kobayashi's stuff seems better suited to middle relief, and Rafael Betancourt probably is a better bet to get first crack at saves if the Indians do decide to make a move. Still worth a flier, though.

Ramon Vazquez $3.
There were some early reports that Hank Blalock was a little gimpy, but that hasn't materialized, so Vazquez's already slim value is nil.

Mike Sweeney $3.
The DH glut in the American League left some bargains on the table and players like Shelley Duncan and Sweeney on the table in my A.L. For the moment, Sweeney is getting most of the DH AB, as Emil Brown has moved into a part-time role. The downside is that Sweeney's descent from a solid but injury-prone hitter into an injury-prone singles hitter continues unfettered. I'm not a huge Dan Johnson fan, but if this is why the A's gave up on him, color me unimpressed. As long as Sweeney's getting the AB, he's worth a stab as an injury replacement, but don't expect much at all.

Nathan Haynes $2.
Don't be fooled by Haynes' rookie status: he's a 28-year-old minor league lifer who is getting some playing time due to the Rays' rickety outfield plus the fact that Joe Maddon simply hates Jonny Gomes. However, Haynes is fast, and already has three stolen bases. He won't do much else, and is overextended in a significant role, but he's worth the bid if you need steals.

Clete Thomas $1.
He's off to a fast start, and he is fast, but Thomas' minor league profile doesn't suggest extended success in the majors. Like Haynes, he does have speed, so Thomas is worth a low bid if you need to roll the dice on a few steals.

Greg Smith $1.
I'm a little surprised that Smith was bought with the minimum bid (he went for $9 in the Sportsline expert league), but he doesn't have the kind of stuff that screams prospect. After his first successful start against the Blue Jays, A's 2B Mark Ellis compared him to Kenny Rogers, which seems like a good comp to me. Smith doesn't throw hard, but he's aggressive, works in the strike zone, and makes the most of his pitches. I think Smith could stay around even after Rich Harden comes back (insert cruel laughter here). The drop in Ks from AA to AAA last year is a bit of a red flag, but Smith could be one of those pitchers like Brian Bannister who succeeds because he knows how to pitch.

Alan Embree $1.
He's been up and down this year, though the A's are still using him quite a bit in high leverage situations, making me think that he could pick up a couple of garbage saves if Street can't go or gets hurt again. I can't recommend him based on what I see, but there's no denying that the numbers were solid last year, and for as much love as I throw Santiago Casilla, Embree was the choice last year for saves when Street couldn't go.

Scott Downs $1.
Downs picked up a save this week, but with B.J. Ryan back, the Jays say that he'll immediately step in as the closer. Downs is a useful middle reliever, particularly in 5x5, but won't step in as closer barring a Ryan setback and the continued implosion of Jeremy Accardo.

Joe Inglett $1.
Two starts in a row this weekend make me think that Marco Scutaro's slow start could lead to a short-term starting gig for Inglett. With the exception of last year, Inglett's always been a solid BA guy in the minors who offers almost nothing else. He's obviously stretched as a starter, but so is Scoot, so Inglett might be worth considering if you picked up Scoot for Scott Rolen earlier in the year.

Jimmy Gobble. Claimed by 11th place team.
Our league uses waivers, so Gobble didn't cost him any FAAB. Gobble had a solid year last year despite having nearly the same interior numbers he had in previous seasons. The newly fortified Royals bullpen means that Gobble is still pretty far down in the pecking order, and isn't a good bet for wins or saves going forward. He's a flyball pitcher in a hitters park, and I think last year was a fluke. I'd avoid.