With news that Frandsen could be gone for the year, coupled with Ray Durham's age and injury risk, what is the bid price on Eugenio Velez in an NL-only?Despite Bruce Bochy's recent negativity toward Durham, I still have to assume that Durham's the starter at 2B and will either have to play his way out of the job, get traded if the Giants fire sale this summer, or get hurt. His aches and pains right now seem minor enough that I expect Durham to start the year as the 2B.
Velez's best case scenario right now seems to be as a supersub getting 300-350 AB all over the diamond. He's been shuttled around throughout his minor league career between second, short, third and the outfield. His age (26) makes me suspect that his future is more likely as a utility guy than as a starter.
The excitement over Velez is centered around his speed. He's fast. Really, really fast. He stole 49 bases last year at AA Connecticut and 58 total. In 2005, he swiped 64 at A-Ball Augusta.
That said, I have a lot of concerns about his shortcomings. His BB/AB rate is not too good, and while that didn't affect his batting average in the minors, it might in the majors. A .250 hitter who doesn't walk enough in the majors might not do enough to stay in the majors. I also can't find any solid data about his minor league fielding, but it doesn't seem like a great sign that he hasn't stayed at one position. His bat is too weak for an outfield corner, but I wonder what he looks like in the field at 2B. If he's the back-up this is a concern, since MLB teams are generally better off carrying back-ups who can capably play multiple positions, particularly in the infield.
My optimistic bid, if you need SB and think Velez is going to wrest the job away from Durham by mid-season, is $6. My more pessimistic bid is $3. Where that bid will ultimately sit will depend on what his role looks like it will be coming out of camp. I'm excited about Velez's speed, too, but I don't like paying these types of players more than $3 or $4, since nearly every season guys who can run appear in the free agent pool, particularly in N.L.-only leagues.
As a final note, I generally avoid writing about specific players. If my readers want more of this kind of analysis, I'd certainly be happy to provide it. However, I'll be the first to admit that my expertise is primarily in Roto theory and tactics. It's not that I don't have something to say about specific players, but I feel like there are more seasoned analysts out there who do a better job at this kind of stuff than I do.
8 comments:
OK, OK, I realize this is a ton to ask, but I’ve been trying to figure the inflation in my NL-only, and I can’t figure this out. I’m not making any excuses. I’m just not that bright. I’m hoping that you can help here, and possibly show how you reach your numbers. It might be helpful for those like me who are struggling with this.
I’ve posted several times before, and I apologize for being so thick-headed. This is an NL-only, with a $271 budget and 30- to 33-man rosters. It’s a 6X6 (with holds, D+T and W-L)
Team 1 (10 keepers at $39): Ronny Paulino $5; Joey Votto $6; Freddy Sanchez $7; Ryan Braun $1; Mark Reynolds $3; Ian Stewart $1; Matt Lindstrom $5; John Maine $5; Carlos Marmol $3; Carlos Villanueva $3
Team 2 (10, $96): Prince Fielder $5; Kaz Matsui $7; Jose B. Reyes $41; Jeremy Hermida $10; Felix Pie $1; Josh Willingham $5; Shawn Hill $5; Brad Penny $12; Takashi Saito $5; Brian Wilson $5
Team 3 (10, $52): Russell Martin $5; James Loney $5; Andre Ethier $5; Tony Abreu $3; Chad Billingsley $3; Ted Lilly $15; Oliver Perez $12; Ian Snell $7; Clayton Kershaw $1; James McDonald $1
Team 4 (10, $67): Geovany Soto $1; Edwin Encarnacion $5; Troy Tulowitzki $3; Rajai Davis $3; Brad Hawpe $26; Shane Victorino $5; Chase Headley $1; Jay Bruce $1; Heath Bell $3; Brandon Webb $21
Team 5 (10, $52): Stephen Drew $5; Khalil Greene $15; Dan Ortmeier 43; Colby Rasmus $1; Chris B. Young $3; Yovani Gallardo $3; Cole Hamels $5; Tim Lincecum $7; Adam Wainwright $5; Kerry Wood $5
Team 6 (10, $96): Chris Snyder $5; Kevin Kouzmanoff $15; Michael Bourn $3; Lastings Milledge $10; Alfonso Soriano $34; Aaron Rowand $15; Brandon Backe $3; Kevin Gregg $5; Micah Owings $3; Mike Pelfrey $3
Team 7 (7, $47): Yadier Molina $7; Dan Uggla $10; Rick Ankiel $1; Tom Glavine $13; Pedro Martinez $10; Wandy Rodriguez $3; Randy Wolf $3
Team 8 (10, $60): Yunel Escobar $3; J.J. Hardy $5; Ryan Theriot $5; Corey Hart $3; Nate McLouth $3; Xavier Nady $12; Steve Pearce $1; Justin Upton $5; Homer Bailey $3; Chad Cordero $20
Team 9 (10, $78): Kevin Frandsen $3; Ryan Zimmerman $22; Brent Lillbridge $1; Matt Diaz $5; Jeff Francoeur $5; Brandon Jones $3; Jeff Francis $7; Tim Hudson $15; Braden Looper $7; Rafael Soriano $10
Team 10 (10, $72): J.R. Towles $3; Conor Jackson $5; Brandon Phillips $20; Jayson Nix $1; Scott Hairston $10; Hunter Pence $3; Nyjer Morgan $3; Tom Gorzelanny $5; Ubaldo Jimenez $3; Jose Valverde $22
Team 11 (10, $64): Ryan Doumit $3; Geoff Jenkins $10; Matt Kemp $5; Jimmy Rollins $40; Chris Duncan $5; Jason Bergmann $3; Matt Capps $5; Franklin Morales $3; Derrick Turnbow $5; Chris R. Young $17
My team (10, $87): Adrian Gonzalez $10; Ronnie Belliard $3; Kelly Johnson $15; Hanley Ramirez $17; Eric Byrnes $17; Jonathan Broxton $5; Matt Cain $5; Manny Corpas $5; Rich Hill $5; Tony A. Pena $5
Congrats on writing about theory and strategy. All of the touts out there write about players now and they really don't add anything to the equation.
Sure they say who's going to break out, but usually that's not based upon actual sabermetric principles as much as it is based upon hunches that they want to come in. There is a glaring void on the strategy front and you are filling it wonderfully.
I haven't seen Velez in the field enough to have a first-hand opinion, but the local press seem to say that he's not an everyday second baseman, nor is he comfortable in the outfield. I tend to agree with your supersub projection, and while tonight's bid update doesn't give him a bid (my bad, didn't hear about Frandsen's injury until Tuesday morning), I'd say $6 is about right. It sure won't be enough here in the Bay Area, though . . .
I would add that Bochy was on the radio the other day just raving about him; said he thought he would force his way into the starting lineup.
Here's the deal that makes roto tough/interesting. I think everyone agrees that he really isn't any good in terms of real baseball.
However, the key here is that the Giants are crap, at least offensively. There simply aren't any options to force guys like Velez back to AAA where he probably belongs. Guys with blazing speed on bad teams that stand a good chance of getting 300-400 at bats have real roto value.
It makes serious baseball fans (like myself) squirm a bit, much as it hurts to bid $ on someone like Juan Pierre. But here is where it is important to realize that roto is a different game, especially for folks playing 4x4 like I do.
When things like OBP or defense don't matter, a guy who could steal 35 bases, regardless of how crummy he really is, has value.
I tend to just try to price enforce these guys, let someone else take the risk, hopefully at a price that won't give them too much value if he DOES happen to steal 35.
Personally, I think the $6-$7 limit is the top of what I would want to pay for him, but depending on the feel of my league/auction, I might try to price enforce him up to $10-$12 before bailing out, and make someone pay for the risk of taking such a bad player.
Before I post something on this anonymous, let me ask you something:
Do you have values listed for these guys? In your opinion, for example, what do you think Paulino is worth?
I don't mean to make you run through this entire exercise again, but I know more about 6x6 than I do, and you probably have a better handle on what these guys should be worth in a 6x6 than I do.
I have a category optimization question for you. 12 teams, NL-only, $260, 4x4. I came in third last year (not enough offense) and look to be mediocre this year heading into Roster Freeze Day, based on my projections for the league's freezes. Inflation is about 30%. There's one juggernaut, two other solid teams, and a bunch of us swimming around. If I go for the usual team, my freezes will be:
Hudson, $15 (value $19)
Reyes, $47 ($45)
Rollins, $37 ($38)
Milledge, $6 ($12)
Jenkins, $5 ($14)
Saito, $25 ($34)
I also have, but don't plan on keeping, Chipper (salary $26), Bourn ($15), Howry ($5), and Maddux ($12). I have steals but very little else.
Is there a way to optimize into six or seven categories with this team? If so, which of these guys should I be looking to deal for guys who could help me? Santana, Peavy, C. Cordero, Wagner, Webb, Oswalt, Zambrano and Haren are the only ones of the top twenty or so pitchers I expect to be available.
Thanks!
Oh, one more thing: League minimums are 900 innings pitched and 4250 at-bats.
Mike,
Thanks for the response. I have Paulino valued at $12.
My major issue (outside of not doing this properly) is that MRs are all over the board. No one has gone for more than $8 in the auction. Based on a loose average from last season's auction, it appears that a solid MR runs about $4, though a solid, low IP guy like Marte can be had for $1.
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