It has been a long journey, but here we are. I want to walk through several of the concepts that Mike has been discussing (absent inflation; the saving grace of a start-over league is that I do not have to do extensive math).
Let me start with pre-auction preparation. As I wrote last year, pre-auction preparation is a key to winning, though it is only a part of the successful auction; you cannot compete without proper preparation. I basically took the Sportsline 5x5 player rankings and, relying upon some formula tweaks by Mike and tweaking the seasonal projections, came up with a list of formulaic bids. I then applied a $185/75 split (more on this in a minute) league-wide, assessed the dollar values for 12 teams on offense and in pitching ($2,220 for hitters and $940 for pitchers), and re-did the bids to apply to the requisite number of players at each position (24 catchers, 36 corners, 36 middle infielders, 60 outfielders and 12 utility players for a total 268 hitters and 108 pitchers).
Sounds easy...it only took me four days. It did teach me an interesting lesson, however, regarding splits. First, $185/$75 is a more traditional split for the American League; National Leagues have traditionally operated under the premise of a $175/$85 split. I wanted, however, to purchase more offense in the auction, thinking that pitching would be there in the end. My team, however, split this way: $157/$103. Lesson: keep track of what you are spending and where. The league split this way: $176.58/$83.42 [note - $18 was left "on the table," so these numbers are very slightly off]. Lesson: while applying your own splits to your bid limits is constructive exercise, it is likely more helpful to merely apply your strategy to the bids directly. If you are dumping saves, reduce your bids to $0 and reallocate the money, etc.
I did not run the projections for these teams quite yet...I don't want to know how my team fares, but I will share this information with you in another post. I do have some interesting observations about a few teams, and I am going to get in touch with the owners to determine if some of these outcomes were purposeful.
Fantasy Auctioneer left $10 on the table. It took an interesting approach that appears to fly in the face of conventional wisdom; 5 OF between $19 and $32, and only one other player on offense over $9 (Aramis Ramirez at $28). Normally, I might overpay or pay par at the weaker positions; outfield is usually not that position, and some outfield bargains fell in late. This is reflected in the number of players that will likely have limited ABs in the majors this year: Steven Pearce, Chin-Lung Hu, Chase Headley, Jesus Flores. On the pitching side, two starters for more than $10, and one closer over $10, and the rest are single digit performers.
Elias Sports Bureau had the least marginalized split at $143/$117. Johan Santana $44, Brad Penny $18, Oliver Perez $15 and Billy Wagner $23 will jack up that pitching cost in a hurry; honestly, for the split, I expected more. With $44 on Hanley Ramirez, it really amounts to a stars and scrubs strategy; I might have spent less on pitching and tried to fill in with sub-double digit starters on the pitching side after Santana.
Crucial Sports is a true stars and scrubs - 4 players over $30 on offense, 3 pitchers over $20 (Carlos Zambrano, Dan Haren and Chris Young), and only one other player over $10 (Matt Capps $12). 14 $1 players and a $6 catcher (Paul Lo Duca); I will be curious to see how this team projects.
Most of the other teams are fairly traditional (excepting my own); money spent at the corners and middle and bargains in the outfield; two pitchers in higher double digits ($16-$26) and filling in the rest.
Overall, it appears to me that if you are in a fresh league, you want to look at your 3B position and target a top tier one there...they fall off quickly. While I have 12 double digit bids at that position, the last couple (Kevin Kouzmanoff and Nomar Garciaparra) are very borderline. Troy Glaus is a big injury risk. David Wright is clearly the cream of the crop; Ryan Braun is several dollars behind. There is a clump with Garret Atkins, Chipper Jones, Ramirez, and Ryan Zimmerman, and then a steep fall-off to Edwin Encarnacion, Ty Wigginton and others. 2B has some good depth along with 1B, and, of course, the outfield. Be wary in the outfield, however; I only have two $30+ bids and only nine $20+ bids. The position is deep, but the top tier players are few and far between.
On the pitching side, there is a nice influx of talent into the league with Santana and Haren (watch out for those long balls in AZ), adding to Jake Peavy, Brandon Webb, Cole Hamels, Zambrano and John Smoltz. The young pitchers are all over the board: Chad Billingsley, Homer Bailey, Ian Snell, Tom Gorzelanny, Yovani Gallardo, Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Ubaldo Jimenez, etc. are all intriguing in their own way. Most of the closer situations have shaken themselves out, and you know the usual suspects. I suggest being more patient in a non-keeper league and letting the closer prices shake themselves out. You can get two solid closers for $30-$34 if you time it well.
I did not run the projections for these teams quite yet...I don't want to know how my team fares, but I will share this information with you in another post. I do have some interesting observations about a few teams, and I am going to get in touch with the owners to determine if some of these outcomes were purposeful.
Fantasy Auctioneer left $10 on the table. It took an interesting approach that appears to fly in the face of conventional wisdom; 5 OF between $19 and $32, and only one other player on offense over $9 (Aramis Ramirez at $28). Normally, I might overpay or pay par at the weaker positions; outfield is usually not that position, and some outfield bargains fell in late. This is reflected in the number of players that will likely have limited ABs in the majors this year: Steven Pearce, Chin-Lung Hu, Chase Headley, Jesus Flores. On the pitching side, two starters for more than $10, and one closer over $10, and the rest are single digit performers.
Elias Sports Bureau had the least marginalized split at $143/$117. Johan Santana $44, Brad Penny $18, Oliver Perez $15 and Billy Wagner $23 will jack up that pitching cost in a hurry; honestly, for the split, I expected more. With $44 on Hanley Ramirez, it really amounts to a stars and scrubs strategy; I might have spent less on pitching and tried to fill in with sub-double digit starters on the pitching side after Santana.
Crucial Sports is a true stars and scrubs - 4 players over $30 on offense, 3 pitchers over $20 (Carlos Zambrano, Dan Haren and Chris Young), and only one other player over $10 (Matt Capps $12). 14 $1 players and a $6 catcher (Paul Lo Duca); I will be curious to see how this team projects.
Most of the other teams are fairly traditional (excepting my own); money spent at the corners and middle and bargains in the outfield; two pitchers in higher double digits ($16-$26) and filling in the rest.
Overall, it appears to me that if you are in a fresh league, you want to look at your 3B position and target a top tier one there...they fall off quickly. While I have 12 double digit bids at that position, the last couple (Kevin Kouzmanoff and Nomar Garciaparra) are very borderline. Troy Glaus is a big injury risk. David Wright is clearly the cream of the crop; Ryan Braun is several dollars behind. There is a clump with Garret Atkins, Chipper Jones, Ramirez, and Ryan Zimmerman, and then a steep fall-off to Edwin Encarnacion, Ty Wigginton and others. 2B has some good depth along with 1B, and, of course, the outfield. Be wary in the outfield, however; I only have two $30+ bids and only nine $20+ bids. The position is deep, but the top tier players are few and far between.
On the pitching side, there is a nice influx of talent into the league with Santana and Haren (watch out for those long balls in AZ), adding to Jake Peavy, Brandon Webb, Cole Hamels, Zambrano and John Smoltz. The young pitchers are all over the board: Chad Billingsley, Homer Bailey, Ian Snell, Tom Gorzelanny, Yovani Gallardo, Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Ubaldo Jimenez, etc. are all intriguing in their own way. Most of the closer situations have shaken themselves out, and you know the usual suspects. I suggest being more patient in a non-keeper league and letting the closer prices shake themselves out. You can get two solid closers for $30-$34 if you time it well.
3 comments:
I remember hearing once the theory that OF is the best position to spend your money because they are most easily replaced, and it's more likely that good OF will come up from the minors or start getting real playing time because there are more of them to get hurt. Contrast that to a position like SS where if your guy gets hurt, your likely replacement is going to be awful offensively - so you're better off skimping there.
I don't know, what do you think? Think the data would play out this way?
As far as paying more for "scarcer" positions - come on, you know that there's no positition scarcity at any position (in an NL-only league) but catcher...right? Or maybe I've been doing it all wrong for years...
This statement - "You can get two solid closers for $30-$34 if you time it well" - threw me for the following reason. I play in a longstanding NL only 5x5 keeper league that has historically overvalued closers to a dramatic degree. The average price for a single closer in this league is $35, and Billy Wagner was held over at $40 a couple years ago. Meanwhile, those who might become closers - your Matt Lindstroms, Tony Penas and such - get bid up to nearly $10 at auction and fill the early rounds of the reserve draft.
I've never been brave enough to punt the category, and nobody has ever won our league doing so. But should I? I could hold over Jose Valverde at $30 - he'd go for $35 or more at auction - but I'm tempted to trade him for something more useful and going without a closer. Your thoughts?
Hi Joe - my computer has been on the blink and I could not see comments at the site for the past few days. It appears Mike has addressed your question thoroughly, but I wanted to chime in and thank you for the question.
From a practical standpoint, throwing Valverde back in a league where owners overpay for saves is a blessing. Closers in 5x5 are overpaid. Period. If you know that closers are overpaid, throw Valverde back and call him out right away. Then call another closer and another and another. Suck money out of the room. The simple math of fantasy baseball is that, no matter what your league budget is, it is a closed economy - there is no borrowing, there is no floating notes, there is no deficit spending. If money is spent on closers, you can spend it somewhere else on bargains.
Brett, it appears Mike beat me to your comment as well.
Thanks for the questions. Keep 'em coming.
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