OVERPAID AT A THIN POSITION: Carlos Guillen $32, Derek Jeter $32.
I was shocked when Carlos Guillen sailed to $32. I know he's been a tremendous producer the last two years, and I know that the move the 1B might keep him fresh all year long. But Guillen is still a 32-year-old hitter who hasn't quite reached superstar status. In 2006, his hot second half pushed him up to $29 in 5x5, and he started out 2007 looking like he was going to build on that finish, hitting 14 HR, 67 RBI, 51 runs, 9 SB, and a .325 BA. Then he tailed badly in the second half. He's a solid player, but I wouldn't bet on him cracking $30 in 5x5, and his durability issues in the past make me want to bring his price down even more. To some degree, I understand the rationale behind paying Jeter $30+. He's practically a lock to hit .300, he'll steal 15 bases, and the power numbers do enough to prop him into the mid to high $20s, even in years he doesn't run. My problem with paying that much for him this year is that his baseball age is 34 and the years that he hits for power and steals a ton of bases seem to be the aberration and not the norm. When Jeter was in his late 20s/early 30s, I didn't mind paying a little more, hoping for one of his standout seasons and "tolerating" a $27 season. The problem now is that age makes it a little less likely he'll put up on of those $35+ years, and a little more likely he'll earn $15-20 in a year when I pay $30.
THE SECOND TIER: Michael Young $23, Julio Lugo $22, Orlando Cabrera $20, Jhonny Peralta $20, Edgar Renteria $20.
I kept moving my bid limit down on Young until it was low enough ($21) that I wouldn't get him, and now I've got a slight case of non-buyer's remorse. He's earned $25+ in 4x4 the last five years, and is a reliable .300 hitter who will drive in runs in that line-up, though I doubt the 20+ HR power of 2004-2005 is coming back. Lugo's price is due to his 33 SB last year and the fact that speed in the A.L. is at a premium. He bounced back in the second half for the Red Sox and should bounce back to .275-.280, but he's now had two lousy halves in the last two years. I'm a big fan of Cabrera's this year. He's not a great baseball player, but he's moving from a moderate pitchers' park to a great hitters' one. I wouldn't be surprised to see Cabrera hit 15-20 HR this year and keep most of the steals. Peralta looked like he was on his way to a big year Pre All-Star, but tailed off badly to close out the year. He was a dismal hitter outside of the Jake. $20 earnings aren't out of the question, but I'd rather stop at $17 or so. A number of analysts talk about Renteria's mysterious decline in Boston in 2005 and say that's a bad portent for this year, but Renteria's OPS was only .008 lower than what he did in St. Louis in 2004. He should be OK, but keep in mind that a lot of his value was wrapped up in batting average last year. He's not a candidate for 20 SB anymore, so don't pay him like he will run.
PAYING FOR A STARTER: Jason Bartlett $15, Yuniesky Betancourt $14, Bobby Crosby $12, Brendan Harris $11.
Bartlett is probably a one-year stop gap for the Rays, with Reid Brignac probably stepping in in 2009. But Bartlett will be an interesting SB play this year. He stole 17 bases Pre All-Star before a series of minor injuries (shoulder, neck, hamstring) wore him down. With the Rays go-go approach, he could steal 30 bases if healthy, and a 40 SB season isn't completely out of the question. I suppose Betancourt's still young, and could build on his 481 SLG Post All-Star, but his four walks in 245 PAs tell me that he's due more pitches out of the strike zone, and is more likely to revert to his Pre All-Star form than break out in 2008. Crosby keeps getting love from touts who hope he'll finally break through, but he's not a prospect anymore at the age of 28, and subpar performance has been as much a part of his M.O. as injuries. I'm not a big Harris fan either. After a hot first-half, he was exposed Post All-Star (713 OPS), and I think 10 HR with very little speed might be about as good as you're going to get here. He's definitely a risk to lose the 2B job to Alexi Casilla before the year's up.
BARGAIN HUNTING: David Eckstein $8, Erick Aybar $6, Adam Everett $4.
All three of these guys might be better plays at these prices than the previous group. Eckstein is a boring option, but he always seems to earn $10 or more. My fear is that he'll stop running as he gets older and with that his value will plummet. Aybar is a high risk/high reward player. The upside is probably an empty 25 SB, but there's plenty of downside. He's worth a flier at this price if the rest of your offense is solid. Everett's maligned as an offensive cipher who isn't worth $1 in Roto, but he offers some speed when healthy and a surprising 8-10 HR in some years. He could kill your average, but he's worth a bid.
CRAPSHOOT: Tony Pena $2, Juan Uribe $2, Elvis Andrus $1, Reid Brignac $1, Luis Hernandez $1, Marco Scutaro $1.
Andrus is a foolish $1 bid. He's a 19-year old shortstop who is realistically three years away from the Major Leagues. Brignac probably isn't much better in a non-carryover league, though he'll probably start out in AAA in 2008 and could see the majors late in the year with a strong showing. Pena and Hernandez are the likely starting shortstops in this group. Pena earned $7 in 5x5 last year, but really fell off the map Post All-Star, with a 596 OPS. He was in the majors for Kansas City out of need, not due to talent, and it's feasible he could hit. 230 and offer little else in his second go-round. Hernandez is the Orioles current starting shortstop barring a trade. Like Pena, he's a good field, no-hit former Braves prospect who has virtually zero Roto upside. He might not earn that $1. Uribe might be on the White Sox bench, he might be traded, or he could even start at 2B. He's got 20-25 HR power, but that ugly swing of his is a batting average killer. Scutaro moves from the A's to the Jays, and will spell Aaron Hill, Eckstein, and Scott Rolen now and again. He's not a bad hedge for Rolen owners as their MI. Scoot isn't much of an earner, but he could see the 350 AB or so he had in Oakland if Rolen breaks down again this summer.
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