$8-9: Milton Bradley $9, Jason Kubel $9, Mark Teahen $9, Luke Scott $8.
We all know the deal with Bradley. He's got the potential to put up a $30 season, but injuries and run-ins with every manager, coach, and player under the sun make him a risk. $9 is a good price, but as anyone who bought him in the A.L. last year knows, he could disappear entirely like he did for the A's or be a superstar like he was for the Padres. Kubel is a bit of a statheads' darling after he put up an 890 OPS Post All-Star. With Carlos Gomez in town, Kubel might be headed into a DH-platoon with Craig Monroe, thus hampering his value. He seemed to sacrifice power for batting average at the end of the year, so 20 HR isn't a given even if Kubel manages to work his way into a full-time role. Teahen was a huge disappointment last year, but keep in mind that he earned $16 last year. He'll need to find his HR stroke if he's going to much of a bargain at this price, though; the 13 SB he nabbed last year aren't a safe bet going forward. Scott slugged .431 vs. LHP and .534 vs RHP over the last three years. That tells me he's a poor candidate to experience a power break-out and that the BA will dip if he does become a full-time player. I wouldn't rule out a semi-platoon with Jay Payton.
$6-7: Travis Buck $7, Joey Gathright $7, Carlos Gomez $7, Jerry Owens $6, Carlos Quentin $6.
Outfield is where the bargains started falling on the offensive side. Buck is a guy with a lot of growth potential who could earn $15 assuming full health. Gomez should have an inside track on the starting CF job for Minnesota. I agree with those who think he's overrated as a prospect, but the speed is real and Gomez could be a double-digit Roto earner if he steals 20-25. Quentin was awful last year, but the power potential makes him worth an interesting stab at $6. He's got the inside track on the starting LF job in Chicago. I'm not enthused by the Gathright and Owens bids. Both certainly have a lot of speed, but offer little else and won't make this money back if they each get only150 AB.
$4-5: Jacques Jones $5, Marlon Byrd $4, Cliff Floyd $4, Craig Monroe $4, Marcus Thames $4.
Jones and Thames look like they're going to be the left/right platoon in LF for Detroit. Jones' BA is historically better against righties, but his power isn't demonstrably better. The more important question is whether or not Jones' mysterious power outage in 2007 was just a one-year disappearance of the beginning of a trend. Thames is a similar hitter from the right-side: his power is actually slightly better against righties, while his average suffers tremendously. Byrd is probably going to start out the year as a starter, but the Rangers outfield/DH pool is crowded, and a 727 OPS Post-All Star does put Byrd in danger of finding himself in a platoon with Josh Hamilton or on the bench if his struggles from the end of last year carry over. This is kind of a no-lose price for Floyd, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him relegated to a 4th OF/part-time DH role and not turn much of a profit. Monroe's best case scenario is as a platoon DH against left handers. Like Thames, the HR/AB differential isn't radical. I wouldn't expect much here, and $4 might even be too much.
$2-3: Jonny Gomes $3, Franklin Gutierrez $3, Corey Patterson $3, Matt Stairs $3, David Dellucci $2, Reggie Willits $2.
Gutierrez is an absolute bargain at this price, even if you aren't in his rooting section and think that he's going to slip next year. The Indians like his defense, so he should be the starter all year barring a total collapse. Stairs and Gomes are solid at these prices, too. I don't know how long Stairs can keep it up, but the Blue Jays are saying that Adam Lind will start out in AAA, with Stairs and Reed Johnson platooning in the OF. That should give Stairs some nice value early on, at the very least. Gomes is certainly a disappointing player in real life, but his HR/SB combination definitely gives him good Roto value at this price. Dellucci is good at $2, but I still think that Ben Francisco will have some role in the Cleveland OF when all is said and done. Willits is $2 is OK as far as the cheap speed goes, though the Angels OF is jam packed. Patterson can only be kept if he signs with an American League team.
$1: Wladimir Balentien, Barry Bonds, Emil Brown, Frank Catalanotto, Carlos Gonzalez, Reed Johnson, Adam Lind, Jay Payton, Juan Rivera.
It's always nice when you can pluck a starting outfielder off of the $1 scrap heap, even if it's someone weak like Brown. Sure, Brown might wind up getting traded out of town when Gonzalez is ready, but even half a year of Brown is well worth the $1. Catalanotto and Johnson should also see significant ABs. I wouldn't rule out Payton in a platoon role with Scott for the O's. It sounds like Lind is headed back to the minors, Balentin is probably going back to AAA as well, and Gonzalez should start out there, too. Rivera is buried in the Angels OF, but could see time if Garret Anderson gets hurt again. Bonds, like Patterson, can only be kept if he signs with an American League team. It's a worthy gamble at $1.
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