The Elite: Reyes $53; Ramirez $44; Rollins $39.
Given the prices of other top players at their positions, I didn't find these prices (Reyes aside) outrageous. Reyes offers enough in all five categories that he is a premier earner in 5x5. The only fear I have with Reyes is that the 100 SB attempts per season, plus the wear and tear of playing shortstop, will grind him down. If we saw a small increase in extra base hits and a small decrease in SB, I would not be terribly surprised. Nonetheless, we do not pay $53 for this type of player; this is not a small loss or a par bid - this bid can only eat value from your squad. Ramirez at $44 looks like a bargain compared to Reyes. At 24, there is a lot to like here, including the increase in extra base hits, the increase in average, the increase in OBP, and the improvement in K/AB and K/BB. Ramirez earned $51 last year in 4x4 and $46 in 5x5; it is hard to expect earnings like that, but if he does it, I would not be surprised. Just be careful, because that lineup is not what it was last year, and even then it wasn't very good. Rollins is getting older, but had a huge spike in his extra base hits the last two years. Oddly enough, his home/road splits are almost right down the middle, so there is no reason, other than wear and tear to expect anything less. I think this is a fair price at SS in 5x5; only $2 over my sheet price.
The youngsters: Tulowitzki $30; Hardy $14; Drew $14; Escobar $10
I knew coming in that I would not own Tulo, but I would push him up and up. He went for $7 over my sheet price. As I said over on Alex Patton's site, Tulo's plate discipline was pretty good in the minors. Two things to keep in mind: one, his splits are, like most other Rockies, incredibly home-oriented; two, he exploded in the second half of the season and we need to know which Tulo is the real one. Hardy might be a huge bargain by comparison. While the average remained the same in the second half last year, his power fell completely off the boat. On the other hand, he struck out less than 80 times, hit 26 HRs, and somehow managed to hit in the .270s. If this doesn't scream "injury," I don't know what does. $14, I think, is going to be a good price. Drew, on the other hand, stunk all year last year. The power doubled in the second half, but his average, already bad, fell along with it. The encouraging statistic to look at is the month of September; he seemed to figure it out a little bit. Escobar is not a big extra base hitter, and doesn't run much, but he seems to have a feel for how to put balls in play safely. Over the course of a full year, he will accumulate stats for you. I wouldn't expect earnings much more than $10.
The other full-timers: Tejada $23; Furcal $19; Lopez $14; Greene $11; Theriot $9; Vizquel $2; A. Gonzalez $2; Wilson $2; Izturis - UNDRAFTED
I don't want to spend a lot of time here, so let me hit the highlights. Tejada just has too many question marks to warrant a $23 in 5x5, particularly with no speed at this point. Furcal might be a good deal; people were put off by his season last year, but that ankle injury really hurt him at the beginning of the year. I expect to see a year like 2005. Lopez went late, and is a good buy for what was left. 2005 will never be repeated, but he will accumulate his stats so long as he stays healthy. Greene doesn't run much and doesn't hit for average, but, at $11, it is hard not to like the power and the runs. Theriot is someone I like, but his value is ultimately tied to his speed, and those players are scary. Vizquel went late, and, frankly, his skills are eroding. My San Francisco sources tell me it is as painful to watch as it is painful for Vizquel to play. Gonzalez is a cute bargain at $2; he will earn more than regardless of whether he hits .250 or .270. Wilson is another one - he will earn more than his $2; he might be the best bargain of this bunch. Izturis wasn't drafted for a reason.
Others: Brendan Ryan, Christian Guzman, Jeff Keppinger
Well, there is no accounting for taste.
Also undrafted: Ronny Cedeno
He is on my reserve list queue. I would love to have him as a backup in Chicago. I think he is an acceptable $1 end game play in 4x4; I would reserve list him in 5x5.
Analysis: Well, unlike the bargains at 2nd Base, the shortstops went at par or over par until the end game. Ramirez, looking at shortstops as a whole, might be the best value, because he is the one big number player that has a hope of duplicating that bid price, and perhaps surpassing it. Looking at 2B and SS as a whole, this might have been a good draft to play stars and scrubs and fill in the middle infield (or get one and fill in with the other two); there were good middle infield bargains toward the end game, particularly at 2B.
4 comments:
I have H. Ramirez ($17) and K. Johnson ($15) at SS and 2B, and I'm planning to designate both as keepers. Obviously, I have Ramirez at a huge bargain (I picked him up for $13 at auction two seasons ago). With the discounts at 2B late, do you think it would be wise for me to pitch Johnson back into the auction, use that extra $15 to spend on Chase Utley, then get a $1 or $2 MI? My other offensive keepers are Byrnes ($17) and Adrian Gonzalez ($10).
Or would it be better to lock Johnson for fair value, then pick up Iguchi for between $8 and $12 at auction? Thanks.
I like Johnson a lot, and I had him at $21 on my 5x5 sheet; keep in mind that my prices here are for 12 team 5x5; if you have 13 teams, you should alter your bids accordingly. If it were me, I would keep Johnson and look for a middle infield bargain; at that point, you can pay for one of the top third basemen, and the option is always available to get an Utley or Rollins if they somehow fall in as bargains, and fill in later. When we get to outfielders later this week, you will see that there are some bargains there as well.
Great. Thanks for the advice.
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