Wednesday, September 05, 2007

September Call Ups: A.L. Edition

Recently, I was asked about the impact of September call-ups on the dwindling Rotisserie races. Today, I'll take a look at American League hitters.

Erick Aybar: He could see playing time in the last week or two if the Angels clinch early, but Aybar isn't a good bet down the stretch. He's had a terrible season while collecting rust on the Angels bench, and is starting to look more and more like a utility option long-term.

Hank Blalock: It looks like Ron Washington is willing to use Blalock at DH until Blalock's healthy enough to play the field. That's good news for Blalock's owners. If you're in a league with limited reserve lists and Blalock is in your free agent pool, he's well worth picking up. He might even be an option for mixed leaguers.

Royce Clayton: Like Aybar, Clayton might see some action at SS in the last week or two if the Sox clinch early. However, Clayton is also a lousy option down the stretch. He could hurt your average and won't run enough to offset this.

Jeff Clement: Clement's minor league numbers look pretty lousy for a 23-year old with college experience, but there are more than a few mitigating factors. First, this was his first full healthy season in the pros. As a result, he was still adjusting to professional pitching and probably, to a lesser degree, to a wooden bat. He does take a walk (61 in 452 AB at Tacoma), so his batting average won't completely deteriorate. The bad news is that Clement's age is what it is, and there doesn't seem to be a place for him in Seattle this year or next year. His best hope is for the Mariners to non-tender Ben Broussard and allow Clement to platoon with Richie Sexson. I don't see it happening. Clement might be trade bait.

Jacoby Ellsbury: Well, I'm sure Ellsbury's gone in your leagues by now. He's off to a scintillating start for the Red Sox so far, batting .452 in 31 AB, even matching the number of HR (two) he amassed in 436 minor league AB. If you do have an opportunity to FAAB Ellsbury, you should probably spend your remaining dough. Just don't get overly optimistic about 2008. The MLE of his .298/2/28/33 line at AAA Pawtucket is probably .275 with no power at Fenway. That still looks better to me than Coco Crisp, so there's a good chance Crisp gets flipped or non-tendered and Ellsbury is the starting center fielder. But don't expect the power to come all at once. I think .280/25 SB is a realistic expectation next year...which is still nothing to sneeze at.

Lew Ford: It's a long way down from Ford's 2004 15/72/20/.299 season. He's a Triple-A OF now, and even the weak hitting Twins are better off with Jason Tyner and/or Rondell White in left field.

Ben Francisco: Yet another September call up who could play should the Indians clinch early. Unlike Aybar and Clayton, though, Francisco can actually provide a little pop and more than a little speed. He's worth a gamble if you have to gamble.

Jerry Hairston: It's a pity that Hairston can't play SS: Michael Young's creaky back might have opened up some playing time for Hairston. It's doubtful that Ian Kinsler will sit, so Hairston is useless.

Justin Huber: I still like this guy, but it's obvious to me that Huber's pressing and it's obvious to everyone that the clock is ticking. If I were Buddy Bell, I'd let Huber play this month and give him 75 AB to show me something. But that doesn't look like it's going to happen. Huber could probably sock 20-25 HR, albeit with a .240 batting average, if given an opportunity. But he won't get it, not even with sorry Kansas City.

Andy Marte: Like Francisco, Marte could benefit if the Indians clinch early. However, Marte's stock as a prospect has plummeted badly. He hit .267 with 16 HR in AAA, which probably gives Marte a .230 MLE with about 10 HR. Yuck. The Indians are probably going to use winter ball, not late September, to find out if Marte's still got something left.

Adam Melhuse: The A's picked him back up to serve as their third catcher; I guess Jeremy Brown has better things to do. Melhuse has no Roto value, though I could see adding him in the last week to protect your BA from a low batting average catcher.

Doug Mientkiewicz: Even with Andy Phillips sidelined, Mientkiewicz has almost no Roto value. He'll spell Jason Giambi and Shelley Duncan on defense. Mienkiewicz's value is as a starter, where he can accumulate 50-60 RBI all season at $1. He's worthless for our purposes in a defensive role.

Doug Mirabelli: He was activated off of the DL, then immediately left the team due to a family emergency. He'll once again be Tim Wakefield's personal catcher, and pop the odd HR while doing it. There are worse options as your second catcher in A.L. only leagues.

Mike Napoli: Ryan Budde is starting today for the Angels, which isn't a sterling recommendation of Napoli's health. Napoli was activated off of the DL this past weekend, but it might have been a paper move only. If he's healthy, Napoli is a great source of power at catcher, but the health is a significant rub. Napoli normally would have been rested with an early Angels clinch, but he might actually have to get some significant playing time to prove he's healthy. If so, this is a high risk but very high reward play down the stretch in leagues where Napoli was dropped.

Juan Rivera: Funny, I didn't realize I'd be writing a blog about the Angels today. Rivera doesn't look like he's ready yet, but I'm sure the Angels will try to do the same thing with Rivera that they will with Napoli and play him extensively down the stretch to see if he's ready for the postseason. Like Napoli, Rivera could pay significant dividends, but he could also tank.

Mike Sweeney: In theory, the Royals should be playing rooks who will have a role in 2008 and not wasting AB on free-agent-to-be Sweeney. These are the Royals, though, so Sweeney looks like he'll play regularly down the stretch. The power might not be there, but Sweeney could hit .300 with quite a few ribbies if he does play.

2 comments:

Dr. Hibbert said...

I don't really see Wladamir Balentien getting many AB this month, but is there any room for him next year in Seattle
s OF?

Mike Gianella said...

A lot depends on what Seattle decides to do with Jose Guillen, Raul Ibanez, and Richie Sexson. I suspect that Balentien will start in AAA in 2008 and, with a strong showing, could very well force his way into the picture by June or July.