Managing your Staff Down the Stretch

I've been a little obsessed with pitching in my recent posts. That's probably because, though pitching is 50% of the game, it looms large in the last month of the season.

Offense is obviously important. But, for the most part, you finalized your starting 14 in late July with that final dump trade. Typically, the only moves you'll make in the last month are to replace an injured player, and these moves are often predictable. Grabbing Russ Adams for Troy Glaus will ensure that you get some statistics back, but you're not going to get the HR/RBI that Glaus would have provided had he been completely healthy.

Pitchers, on the other hand, fluctuate incredibly not only from month to month but even from start to start. A pitcher who was the anchor of your staff in June could turn out to be your season's goat in August and someone you're thinking about waiving in September.

But should you?

In the heat of competition, it's tempting to start pulling the plug on pitchers that are flailing. But there is plenty of downside. The pitchers available in the free agent pool of any deep league are typically not good. In fact, they're often very, very bad. Edwin Jackson's been sitting out there all year for a reason. Typically, the pitchers you can take a chance on are:

1) Pitchers like Jackson who have spent all or most of the year in the free agent pool. Even Jackson will put up a solid outing once in a while, but hoping for this outcome is like hoping to beat the dealer in blackjack when by pulling a 21 out of your ass after you've been deal a 3 and a 2. Sure, it could happen, but it probably won't.

2) Rookies. There was once a time in Rotisserie where no one would touch a rookie starting pitcher in the reserve or farm draft prior to the start of the season, due to how unpredictable and volatile rookie pitchers are. As a result, there were often some pretty well hyped rookies that would come up mid-season. Even with these blue chippers, there were no guarantees, but this was the closest thing to a proven commodity you could grab.

Thanks to the proliferation of knowledge, including Baseball America, John Sickels, Baseball Prospectus, and several other resources, owners generally feel more comfortable grabbing these top-tier pitchers in their farm drafts. The result is that the rookies who come up during the season fall into one of two categories.

He's up already???: These are rookies who have certainly received good press, but started the year in A-ball and weren't supposed to be in the majors for quite some time. The problem with these guys is that they might be great in two years, but might very well be batting practice for the other team. Of course, they could also be lights out.

Who?: These guys are pitchers who barely received notice in Sickels' book, didn't get a write-up in Baseball Prospectus, and had numbers coming into this year that made them look like they were going to be back working on the family farm next summer. Maybe there was real breakthrough, but who knows?

In these cases, you could hit the jackpot, but you could also wind up with garbage.

3) The guys your opponent pulled the plug on. So you think you're the only one who is having a hard time with your staff? Talk to the guy who had Carlos Zambrano, Bronson Arroyo and John Maine in August. If he was in the lead on July 31, he most likely isn't in the lead now. Every one of the teams that's fighting you for a money spot is going through the same mental gymnastics about their staffs. Chances are, there is a pitcher who went for $10-15 in your auction who was waived by a contender in August or earlier this month.

Looking at the leagues I track for my A.L. and N.L. FAAB logs, here are some pitchers who were waived in August or in the first half of September:

Jeremy Bonderman, Jose Contreras, Jon Garland, Kevin Millwood, Mike Mussina and Adam Wainwright.

That's mostly American Leaguers. I don't know if N.L. win races are tighter, or if ERA/WHIP races are looser, but I had a hard time finding examples of pitchers who went for $10 or more who were simply waived down the stretch.

Who were these guys replaced with?

Here's a list of starting pitchers that were claimed or FAABed in August and September:

N.L.: Brian Lawrence, John Lannan, Joel Pineiro, Ubaldo Jimenez, Woody Williams, Elizardo Ramirez, Kip Wells, David Wells, Mike Bascik, Esteban Loaiza, Steve Trachsel, Matt Albers, Carlos Villanueva, Kevin Correia, Joel Pineiro (again), Adam Wainwright, Sean Marshall, Tom Shearn, Jonathan Sanchez.

A.L.: Miguel Batista, Kyle Davies, Kevin Millwood, Vicente Padilla, Steve Trachsel, Radhames Liz, Ian Kennedy, Kameron Loe, Andy Sonnanstine, Clay Buchholz, Edinson Volquez, Jon Garland, Jesse Litsch, Aaron Laffey, Horacio Ramirez, Jason Hammel, Mike Mussina, Jeremy Bonderman, Jair Jurrjens, Gavin Floyd, Dan Meyer.

Regardless of the risks, owners sure aren't gun shy about picking up starting pitching. Another lesson here is that if you chicken out on someone like Mussina, another owner will be more than happy to pick up the pieces.

I'm going to call it a night for now. Nothing has been resolved here, but it's a start, or a peek at the kind of analysis I'd like to roll up my sleeves and get into over the winter.