A.L. FAAB Log: September 3, 2007

Ian Kennedy $17. Other bids $15, $11, $10, $10, $1.
By this time of year, FAAB bids are more a reflection of who is capped out, who isn't paying attention, and who is out of FAAB money. The $1 bid is from an owner who is almost out of FAAB, while two of the $10 bids are next year plays. The $11 bid is from the first place team, who is up against the cap. In some ways, if you have the money, the cap space, and the slot, bidding this time of year is easier. You can't take it with you so you should use all of it if you can.


Kennedy is a soft-tossing righty who doesn't top 90 MPH on the radar gun, though you wouldn't know it by looking at his numbers. With Mike Mussina struggling big time, and Roger Clemens now suffering through minor aches and pains, Kennedy probably has a clean shot at starting the rest of the year. I haven't heard anyone talk about shutting Kennedy down due to innings, but he's thrown 153 2/3 between the minors and the majors this year. I think Kennedy can be a long-term success, but he could struggle at some point, like fellow soft-tosser Kevin Slowey did for the Twins earlier this year. Kennedy has a soft schedule in his favor. His next start this week is against the Royals, and the Yanks have plenty of Baltimore and Tampa Bay on the docket the rest of the way. At the very least, Kennedy looks like a solid wins play.


Clay Buchholz $15. Other bids $15, $15, $10.
Unlike Kennedy, who probably projects long-term as a #4 starter, Buchholz could be a long term #2 or even an ace if everything breaks correctly for him. He throws five pitches for strikes, including two types of fastballs, and a curve and change that are actually both considered his best pitches. The biggest problem with Buchholz, and this bid, is that the Red Sox are talking about only allowing Clay two more starts and then shutting him down. In terms of next year, $15 is still a lot to risk on a young pitcher with virtually no experience, even though he's got one of the highest ceilings of any prospect in baseball. Given his so-so numbers at Triple-A, the Sox might give Buchholz a month or so at Pawtucket, so Buchholz might not be a good bet at this price in 2008.


Kameron Loe $11
This is a silly bid. But, as I said above, if you've got the FAAB you have to use it. Loe's numbers have improved somewhat in the second half, particularly his HR/IP, which is what you're looking for from a pedestrian groundball pitcher. His K/BB, however, is terrible, showing that Loe is still going to get himself in trouble one way or another. The best reason to recommend Loe is that he's got a two-start week this week against the A's and the Royals, two of the weaker hitting teams in the league. I wouldn't necessarily recommend him for anything beyond this.


Josh Barfield $11. Other bids $10, $1.
This winning bid is from a team playing for next year. Looking back, it should have been evident that the problems that Barfield had in some of his interior numbers, particularly his poor BB/AB ratio, would come back to haunt him in the harder-to-hit American League. Barfield reminds me of Brandon Phillips as a young player now: he actually might need a full year in the minors to fix some of the glaring holes in his game. He's next to worthless for this year; Asdrubal Cabrera is going to start almost every game until the Indians clinch or are eliminated.



Jon Garland $5
Like Loe, Garland is a two-start pitcher. Like Loe as well, there isn't much of an additional reason to recommend Garland, and his start against the Tigers could be a disaster, depending on which Tigers offense shows up. Garland has a 6.92 ERA and a .336 BAA Post All-Star. I owned him most of this year; my opinion is that Garland's back injury is hampering his velocity and location, and that he's just throwing meatballs up there at this point. Surgery might be an option and, if that's the case, this bid might be totally worthless.


Edinson Volquez $3
After Volquez's unmitigated eight-start disaster in Texas last year, the Rangers sent him all the way back to A-ball to work on his mechanics. He seems to have fixed whatever was ailing him, capping off his year with a 1.41 ERA at Triple-A Oklahoma City. When he's on, he's got a great fastball/change combination that is complimented by a curve that improved his year, according to Rangers watchers. With a solid performance down the stretch, Volquez should put himself in line for a job in the Rangers rotation next year. The Rangers have a pretty easy schedule the rest of the way, with the exception of a three game set with L.A., so Volquez isn't a bad wins gamble if you're in need.

Juan Uribe $3
Last year, I owned this guy, and defended him as a viable Rotisserie option despite his terrible .235 BA. This year, I'm changing course and saying that Uribe and his awful 632 OPS is not a viable major leaguer, regardless of how many lucky swings he has with that awful bucket stance of his. He reminds me of Jose Valentin in his prime, except he just isn't as good. He's a subpar play for this year if you're desperate for HR, but I think the White Sox are going to look for something better at SS this off-season.

Brandon Moss $2.
Moss is starting to look less like a potential future starting OF and more like a 5th OF, at best. His 148 whiffs at Pawtucket wouldn't concern me if Moss were hitting .320, but his .282 BA isn't going to translate well to the majors with all of those strikeouts. I'd pass and wait to see if Moss turns it around in winter ball. He'll turn 24 this winter, and is getting old for a prospect.

Andy Sonnanstine $2
The 5.89 ERA masks a solid 1.29 WHIP. Sonnanstine doesn't walk a lot of batters, so he needs strong command in order to succeed. The results have been less than successful so far, but he's still got the stuff to be an adequate starter for Tampa Bay down the road. His match-up against the Orioles this week is deceptive. Baltimore is a favorable opponent, but Sonnanstine has been roughed up by them twice already this year.

Fernando Rodney $1. Other bid $1
Rodney's pedestrian ERA this year masks the fact that he's struck out a batter an inning and his OPS against is comparable to 2005, when he had a 2.86 ERA. This is a nice little pick-up for next year. Todd Jones is a free agent and, with Joel Zumaya struggling so far, Rodney could sneak into the closers role in April if the Tigers don't sign a big-name free agent to close.

Jason Giambi. Claimed by 12th and 5th place teams.
Giambi's 5 HR in August might make you think that he could be a valid option down the stretch for your team, but his 1/13 K/BB ratio (in 50 AB) makes me wonder if he's still more than a little rusty. He's certainly worth the gamble for some HR/RBI in that line-up, but Torre still seems a little gunshy about using Giambi exclusively at 1B.

Dioner Navarro. Claimed by 10th and 5th place teams.
Obviously, Navarro isn't going to be worth freezing at the $10 free agent price next year. But he's quietly put together a solid second half, stroking 6 HR in 112 AB Post All-Star with a solid .283 BA. Heck, if Navarro can hit .250-.260 with 15 HR power, he'll be a find next year on Auction Day. He's only 23 years old, so it's entirely possible that Navarro has turned a corner. Monitor his September closely.

Sammy Sosa. Claimed by 6th and 2nd place teams.
The Rangers announced that Sosa would be reduced to a part-time DH the last two months of the season, as the team wanted to see whether or not players like Jason Botts and Nelson Cruz would be useful components for the 2008 Rangers. The answer seems to be "NO!!!", and Sosa has been getting a few more AB as Botts and Cruz continue to tank and Frank Catalanotto battles a minor injury. Sosa's not a bad gamble for power-hungry teams, and he won't hurt your BA as much playing only three times a week.

Chris Bootcheck - Claimed by 1st place team.
His bad two outings against the Yankees aside, Bootcheck continues to be a solid long-relief option for the Angels. That's the problem, though: wins won't come easily for him, and you can forget about saves.