Monday, August 06, 2007

A.L. FAAB Log: August 6, 2007

Jarrod Saltalamacchia $17. Other bids $16, $15, $12, $8, $6, $5.
The owner who purchased Saltalamacchia is playing for 2008, and thinks that "Salty" could be worth freezing at $17 next year. He asked me what my opinion was. I took the timid road of not wanting to insult a fellow owner, telling him that he could be a freeze depending on what he does the rest of the way. That was the cowardly answer. The truth is that Salty isn't ready yet. He tanked in Double-A in 2006 (putting up a 733 OPS) and was only pressed into action for the Braves due to multiple injuries at catcher earlier in the year. Since a 2 HR game against the Nationals on June 26, Saltalamacchia is 18 for 83 (.217), with a lousy .241 SLG and a .270 OBP. Again, he isn't ready. The Rangers are caught in the tough position of wanting to prove to their fans that they didn't just give Mark Teixeira away but not wanting to wreck Saltalamacchia's confidence by letting him suck along below the Mendoza line. From a Rotisserie perspective, I don't think it's a hard call. You have to bid aggressively due to the catcher eligibility; you might be upgrading on a total dead spot, and the worst you'll do is hurt your batting average. But don't make a $15+ bid expecting a freeze next year. My money's on Salty going to Triple A while Gerald Laird gets another 200 AB to sink or swim one last time.

Wilson Betemit $9. Other bids $6, $3, $2, $1.
I'm surprised more non-contenders didn't take a more aggressive position here. In my league, players purchased through FAAB at less than $10 see their salaries increase to $10. If Betemit's a super-sub again next year, then he clearly won't be worth freezing at $10. However, I don't think the Yankees are going to keep him in that role. They'll either flip him again in the offseason or slot him in at third base if A-Rod leaves or find another spot in the line-up for him. Betemit is now up to three games at SS in 2007, which gives him a little more value in some leagues that use a three-game requirement. He's going to cool off, and as long as the Yankees are in a close race for the wild card, I don't think Betemit will get more than three starts a week once Jason Giambi comes back. He's an upgrade for some, in other words, but more likely at MI than at CO.

C.J. Wilson $6. Other bids $4, $1.
I kind of dissed Wilson in my post last week about American League relievers, but Wilson put up two saves last week and could keep getting saves in Akinori Otsuka's absence. I still believe Ron Washington will mix and match with Wilson and Joaquin Benoit, but my rule of thumb when it comes to substitute closers is to go with the guy who is getting the saves right now. That doesn't mean you should break the bank, but you should place a nominal bid if you need them.

David Riske $3.
I don't even remember if I wrote about Riske in my A.L. reliever round-up. He's a capable reliever who is a poor vulture candidate because he's on the Royals, and KC is committed to Joakim Soria in the 9th, with Zach Greinke as the probable back-up should Soria get hurt or get ineffective.

Luis Vizcaino $2. Other bid $1.
Vizcaino is looking more and more like Joe Torre's go to guy behind Mariano Rivera in the 7th and 8th innings. He's already got 8 wins, and you can't rule out another 2-4 given the nature of the Yankees line-up and the fragility of the pitching staff. Even better, Vizcaino might get a handful of save chances in September if Mo wears down and Torre wants to give Rivera a day off. Vizcaino might wear down given his high usage, but the good news in Yankeeland is that it doesn't take long to lose Torre's trust; Vizcaino will get buried if he has a bad outing or two. Then again, I thought the same thing about Ron Villone last year, yet Torre kept sending him out there to get buried.

Hector Luna $1.
This bid was to fill a slot at our league's trade deadline; otherwise, the team in question wouldn't have had a second baseman. Luna was putting up some pretty sub-pedestrian numbers at Triple A before his call up. He's versatile, but he currently has no place on a fantasy squad.

Alex Cora $1.
This bid was to fill in Luis Castillo's vacant slot, because inaction costs you $3 in FAAB for the player at the position with the most AB. After a quick start to the year, Cora's been next to worthless for his Roto owners. With Dustin Pedroia hitting well over .300 and Julio Lugo signed to a big contract, Cora will barely play in Beantown.

Andrew Brown $1.
Andrew Brown was a prospect for the Dodgers many, many years ago before blowing out his arm and missing almost all of 2003. He's now pitching very well in middle relief for the A's. He's the only player who's ever been involved in two trades for Milton Bradley. He's not much of a prospect, and his ERA/WHIP are due for a correction, but this is the kind of quiet pick-up Billy Beane makes that earns him praise from his fellow GMs. Beane turned Bradley (a negative) into Brown (a positive). Still, Brown's a longshot to have Roto value.

Danys Baez. Claimed by 11th place, 10th place, 7th place, 2nd place and 1st place teams.
It might be a rocky ride, but I'm convinced that Danys Baez is probably the short-term closer for the Orioles while Chris Ray is out. Dave Trembley doesn't seem convinced of the idea that someone has to get the ball in the ninth every time, but management probably feels that they're not paying Baez $6.7M a year to play mop up man. He should be bid on aggressively in any leagues where he's not owned, but watch for damage to your WHIP.

Miguel Batista. Claimed by 5th place, 2nd place and 1st place teams.
Batista is having one of his better years. He's winning a lot of games and getting lucky keeping the damage to a minimum despite a ton of baserunners (and walks). I view him as a wins play/match-up play only. His peripherals tell me that his performance is very similar to his 2004 and 2006 seasons, when he posted ERAs nearly half a run to three-quarters of a run higher. The team that claimed him is dead in the water in ERA/WHIP, so I see this as a great move on his part. If you're in the thick of a ERA/WHIP race, this is a bad risk you shouldn't take. Even Batista's splits are deceiving. His home ERA is better, but he's given up more HR in almost the same number of innings, and the Ks are the same, too. Expect a significant slide over the last two months.

3 comments:

Toz said...

Just for spite, Brown went out and picked up a win last night for me (yes, once again, I am the guy who picked up the valueless pitcher!). I think Mike's point, however, is well-taken - Brown is a 2 inning guy with pretty pedestrian numbers. If he keeps the BB down and the HR down, however, he should be in line for another couple of wins down the stretch. He's really nothing more than a rotating pitching slot pickup until he runs cold.

Rodger A. Payne said...

Adam Jones?
Jason Botts?

In my league these guys went for $19 and $20, respectively.

Salty went for $33 to one of the top 3 guys. With lots of free agent cash on hand, he also bought Wheeler for $22.

I just missed on Jones and Botts, but bid less than $10 on Salty and Wheeler.

I was the top bidder for Betemit ($6), but lost him because we have a topping bid rule. He was purchased by the guy who lost Proctor.

In sum, I didn't get anyone, but wished I had bid a bit more on Botts. He's 27 years old with a good minor league hitting record -- and he gets to DH in Texas.

Mike Gianella said...

Jones and Botts were both farm players who were activated. My supplemental FAAB log, which I was doing earlier in the year, is something I've fallen off with as my baby daughter gets older and more tiring to chase around!

Our league has a cap, and four of the top five teams are all either at the cap or very close to it. Additionally, the top teams offenses are pretty stacked due to dump trades and a league where only five teams are playing for the money, so Salty/Betemit wouldn't have been much of an upgrade for some of us. I bid $5 on Salty in favor of Jason Kubel, which was my max bid due to the salary cap. Toz bid $6 on Salty/Betemit to replace Sammy Sosa, which was also his maximum bid.