2008 Aces: N.L. Edition

When I started compiling this list, I thought that there were 12-15 pitchers who were aces without question. The more I look at it, however, the more I believe that everyone past the top two pitchers do indeed have some question marks based on injuries, age, or deteriorating performance markers. It's possible that you might want to spend a few extra bucks on one of the top two for that reason.

Prices are for 4x4, $260 salary cap, 13-team N.L. only leagues.

1) Jake Peavy. 2007 Alex Patton bid limit: $29
Patton's 2007 bid might seem low, but it actually was quite a show of good faith given Peavy's disappointing $17 season in 2006. Not only was 2007 a comeback to his previous levels, but Peavy looks like he could possibly enter that elite stratosphere that was once inhabited by Greg Maddux in the mid 1990s and by Pedro Martinez in the late 90s and early 2000s. There's nothing not to like in Peavy's numbers. He's dropped his HR rate to a sick level (7 HR), and even his home/away splits aren't a product of Petco (an unreal 1.22 ERA on the road!!!). You could make the argument for price-enforcing Peavy to $40. I reserve the right to do that next spring, but for now I'm going to wimp out. 2008 bid: $36

2) Brandon Webb. 2007 AP bid limit: $27
Last year's Cy Young award winner will probably come in second in this year's balloting behind the man listed above. Like Peavy, Webb is possibly on the cusp of becoming one of those dominant aces that you shell out $40+ for in your auction. However, Webb's venue is far less favorable, which is reflected in a .258 BAA at home versus a .212 BAA on the road. Webb is the National League's answer to Roy Halladay. He keeps the ball on the ground with a heavy, sinking fastball, so even if the K/IP rates aren't dominant (he's not in the top 10 in the N.L in K/IP or K/BB), he keeps the ball in the yard and lets his defense pick him up. I'd still gladly build my staff around Webb, but just be aware that pitchers like this are a little more prone to good or bad luck. 2008 bid $32

3) Chris Young. 2007 AP bid limit: $21
Because of the importance the Cy Young voters place on wins, Young will be lucky to even get a handful of votes. That's too bad, because his OPS against is actually better than Jake Peavy's. Unlike Peavy, Young is a huge beneficiary of his home venue, with a 1.24 ERA at home compared to a 3.59 ERA on the road. But his stuff is so nasty that it doesn't matter; despite a 0.61 G/F ratio, Young has allowed a mere six HR. His 95 MPH heater has so much movement that you can hit it in the air, but you're not going to get a great swing at it. I might be overestimating Young, and the law of averages says he might give up a few more dingers next year. But that same law also says Young should win another 5-6 games next year. 2008 bid $30

4) Roy Oswalt. 2007 AP bid limit: $30
After Chris Carpenter went down early this year, Patton elevated Oswalt to first in his rankings for 2006. While Oswalt has been solid this year, his relatively high WHIP due to his walk rate concerns me a little bit. Otherwise, he's the same solid pitcher he's always been, his strained oblique not withstanding. If I have a knock on Oswalt, it's not on him but on his fans. He's always been very, very good, but he's not likely to pass into the $40 range based on his career numbers so far. I'd hate to be wrong, and Oswalt is entering that early 30s peak age that pitchers sometimes hit. But I'm inclined to be a little conservative here, and I probably wouldn't get him in a start-over auction at this price. 2008 bid $27.

5) Aaron Harang. 2007 AP bid limit: $15
I don't think Alex was alone in thinking that Harang's 2006 was a little bit of a fluke given his previous history. However, Harang continued to improve this year and looks to me to be poised to enter into the cusp of the elite category. He'll always give up his fair share of HR in that park as a flyball pitcher, but he's keeping hitters off the bases with the free pass, and his K/IP held up over 8.0 per 9 for the second year in a row. That's a formula for continued success, even in Great American. Honestly, I'd rank Harang lower if some of the next few pitchers didn't have questions surrounding them, but I think Harang right now is a safer bet than some of the names that follow. 2008 bid $25

6) Cole Hamels. 2007 AP bid limit: $17
On the basis of pure stuff, I like Hamels better than Harang. However, CBP is even worse than Great American, and the results show up in 25 HR in 167 1/3 IP. My bigger problem with Hamels going forward is his current injury. The Phillies just pushed back his start on Sunday, and given Hamels' long history with injuries, I'm very worried that he could miss significant time. Based on the raw stuff alone, I'd rank him ahead of Harang and (gasp) Oswalt, but I feel like you'll have to be conservative here. 2008 bid $23

7) Ben Sheets. 2007 AP bid limit: $25
Sheets is a spring training call. If he looks healthy, he can easily move up a few ticks and even get pushed close to $30. There's no doubt about his stuff and his grit. My biggest concern is his continued injury woes. He's beginning to remind me of A.J. Burnett; Sheets just can't seem to get to 200 IP for one reason or another. He could have one of those years where he puts together a $40 season, but I'm not paying for it and risking a 130 IP season that ruins my team. 2008 bid $22

8) Carlos Zambrano. 2007 AP bid limit: $26
Based on Zambrano's performance this year, this ranking is a terrible play. However, unless he's hiding an injury, I have a huge problem with moving Zambrano out of the top 10. He's cut down significantly on his HR allowed Post All-Star, and if he keeps the ball in the park, the walks won't kill him. That's been his M.O. all along. You know that Zambrano's going to walk some guys, the key is keeping those ducks on the pond. He's done that to date, and I still think there's nothing wrong with his stuff that indicates he's due to fail. 2008 bid $22.

9) John Smoltz. 2007 AP bid limit: $20
The only reason to downgrade John Smoltz is because he'll be 41 years old for most of 2008. And that's why I'm knocking him down a few pegs. It's not fair - his 2007 matches his 2006 and he's been bedrock for the Braves and his owners - but the odds increase for any pitcher past 40 that he will lose effectiveness, get hurt, or simply run out of gas. 2008 bid $21

10) Rich Hill. 2007 AP bid limit: $8
I considered Tim Lincecum for this slot as well, but I decided in the end to stick Hill here. Based on raw stats alone, Lincecum has a better shot at breaking out in 2008 and being a stud. However, I have a good feeling about Hill next year that goes beyond the numbers. I like his curveball a lot, and I like his poise on the mound. He's keeping the ball in the park in the second half, and I think that will improve his chances going forward. 2008 bid $20

As mentioned above, Lincecum was also considered for the Top 10 next year. I also looked at Oliver Perez, Tim Hudson, Ted Lilly, John Maine and Tom Gorzelanny. Pedro Martinez, of course will merit consideration if he shows he's healthy in September for the Mets.